Plazaview.com Library 4th Qtr. 2004

Plazaview.com

Forecast Records - 4th Qtr. of 2004

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-11-2004
Forecast Archive - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year, TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ; and S&P 500, SPY

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note closed at 4.133%. The yield rate of the T-bond closed last week, at 4.902%.

This week, rates are building a base to rebound. As previously forecast, the Note has been moving lower since is was at 4.791% in June of this year and the Bond has corrected downward since late May, when it was at 5.503%. These rates are still in a downtrend but now in the early stages of changing direction.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed at $85.60. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed for the week at $87.95.

The IEF and the TLT have been rebounding in a correction but that rally may soon end. Since June, when it was at $81.70, the IEF has been rising; since late May, when TLT was at $81.31, it has also been rising. Both are near their forecast intermediate highs. The current rebound will soon rest and the IEF will then have potential to fall back down to $82.94 or $81.25; the TLT may fall back to $85, $83.60, and $80.83.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed at 35.58.

Since October of 2002, when is was at $20.35, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. But, since January of this year, when it was at 38.57, the QQQ has been drifting sideways, with a downward bias. It is still in a longer term, upward trend, cautiously marking time in a defensive market environment.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed last week at 112.51.

The SPY has been in a rising trend since October of 2002, when it was at 80.80. It is still in the longer term, upward trend, which resumed during the first week of August. The SPY is currently moving higher, in a breakout from the 3/04 downtrend.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-18-2004
Forecast Archive - Library: www.Plazaview.com

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note closed down, at 4.053%. The yield rate of the T-bond closed lower, at 4.849%.

This week, rates are in the process of at least a building base. As previously forecast, the Note has been moving lower since is was at 4.791% in June of this year and the Bond has corrected downward since late May, when it was at 5.503%. These rates are still in a downward trend but now showing signs of stabilizing, building support at current levels, early stages of direction change.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed up, at $86.06. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed up, at $88.67.

The IEF and the TLT have been in an upward trend since early June. Both are near their forecast intermediate highs and now indicating price topping patterns. The current rebound has potential to move higher but it is becoming vulnerable to a fall-back, down to $82.94 or $81.25 for the IEF; the TLT may eventually fall back to $85, $83.60, and $80.83.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed slightly up, at 35.63.

Since October of 2002, when is was at $20.35, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. But, since January of this year, when it was at 38.57, the QQQ has been drifting sideways, with a downward bias. More recently, since August, the QQQ has been in a rebound, moving up and out of an oversold condition. It is still rising in an upward trend but cautiously drifting in a defensive market environment.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed down last week at 111.26.

The SPY has been in a rising trend since October of 2002, when it was at 80.80. It is still in the longer-term upward trend, which resumed during the first week of August. The SPY is cautiously trending higher, in a breakout from the 3/04 downtrend.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-25-2004
Forecast Archive - Library: www.Plazaview.com

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note closed down, at 3.984%. The yield rate of the T-bond closed lower, at 4.761%.

This week rates are still in the process of seeking a base, to rebound. Rates are still in a falling trend but now indicating signs of stabilizing, building support at current levels. These are potential, early stages of a direction change.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed up, at $86.67. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed up, at $89.82. After several months, both have now reached the Plazaview forecast targets.

The IEF and the TLT have been in an upward trend since early June. Both are now at their forecast intermediate highs and indicating price topping patterns. The current rebound has potential to move higher but prices are will be vulnerable to a fall-back. Lower targets for the future, are: $82.94 or $81.25 for the IEF; and, the TLT may eventually fall back to $85, $83.60, and $80.83.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed slightly up, at $35.80.

Since October of 2002, when is was at $20.35, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. But, since January of this year, when it was at 38.57, the QQQ has drifted sideways, with a downward bias. More recently, since August, the QQQ has been in a correcting rebound, moving up and out of an oversold condition. It is still rising in an upward trend but cautiously drifting in a defensive market environment. There is higher price potential.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed (down) last week at 109.99.

The SPY has been in a rising trend since October of 2002, when it was at 80.80. It is still in the upward trend, which resumed during the first week of August. While there is higher price potential, the SPY is now retreating in a correction.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 11-8-2004
Forecast Archive - Library: www.Plazaview.com

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note closed up, at 4.186%. The yield rate of the T-bond closed up, at 4.909%. The rise was forecast in Plazaview.com.

This week rates have risen in each of the past two weeks and at this point appear to be rebounding but the rise is still within a longer term downtrend. Rates are still in a falling trend but now indicating signs of stabilizing, building support at current levels for a potential change of direction.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed down, at $85.27. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed down, at $87.81. After several months, both have reached the Plazaview forecast targets.

The IEF and the TLT have been in an upward trend since early June. Bonds are now at their forecast intermediate highs and indicating price topping patterns. The current rebound has potential to move higher but prices are vulnerable to further downward movement. After the downward correction, an established base of price support indicates a rebound will follow. Lower targets are: $82.94 or $81.25 for the IEF; and, the TLT may eventually fall back to $85, $83.60, and $80.83.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed up, at $37.96. This higher price potential was forecast in Plazaview.

Since October of 2002, when is was at $20.35, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. But, since January of this year, when it was at 38.57, the QQQ has drifted sideways, with a downward bias. More recently, since August, the QQQ has been in a correcting rebound, moving up and out of an oversold condition. It is still rising in an upward trend but it still must exceed the nearby price level of 38.70 to break out of this year’s sideways moving trend. There is higher price potential.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed up last week at 117.28.

The SPY has been in a rising trend since October of 2002, when it was at 80.80. It has broken-out from the past eight months’ containment of a sideways trend. There is now some higher price potential. The SPY appears to be rising on cautious optimism, an alternative to bonds, precious metals and crude oil.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

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