Plazaview.com Library 4th Qtr. 2003

Plazaview.com

Forecast Records - 4th Qtr. of 2003

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-6-2003
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(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins higher, at 4.195% and S&P 500 is higher, at 1029.85)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note continued moving lower, until rising at week's end. It ranged from 4.222% to 3.912%, closing up, at 4.195%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate is falling and it hit the lower target of 3.969%, but there was potential for a brief rise, before continuing lower.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still moving down, toward (3.074%) the June 13, low point. With potential to complete last week's brief rise, toward 4.334%, the rate is moving lower. Downward movement will resume, toward targets of 4.009%, 3.932%, 3.361%, 3.074% and potentially lower.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved higher, until week's end. It ranged from 100-4/32 to 102-12/32, closing lower, at 100-7/32. As described in Plazaview, the T-note is rising, toward its minimum target of 104-6/32 but some resistance to higher levels was forecast for the end of last week.

This week begins with the Note still indicating some resistance to higher levels but eventually resuming its rise. A period of consolidation may develop. In time, the 10-year Note will complete its upward move, toward 104-6/32.

Last week, the U.S. stock market rallied higher but stopped short of exceeding the recent top. The S&P 500 ranged from 990.36 to 1039.31, closing higher, at 1029.85. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 would continue rising in a limited attempt to advance. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-29.91%).

This week, the U.S. stock market is in an elevated range of the June - August, thirteen weeks of a sideways holding pattern. Currently, the market is seeking a top and eventually, it will turn down, move closer to the March lows. This advance could linger in a sideways pattern for as much as six months, before concluding in a retracement, down to 950, potentially back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500).

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index continued to move lower but turned up at week's end. The DX moved in a range of 94.35 to 92.08, closing down, at 93.23. As previously outlined in Plazaview, the DX is potentially forming a base, above 92.65 to 91.88.

This week, the DX still has potential to find a base in the area of 92.65 to 91.88. However, more immediately, the DX has increasing potential to rise, up to 94.96. With time, the DX will have a good base to resume the upward move and sustain itself above 1.00, and hit the 101.92 target.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved higher but turned down at week's end. It ranged between 1.1767 to 1.1398 and closed up, at 1.1577. As forecast in Plazaview.com, was likely to move briefly lower, to 1.1363, as it nearly did.

The EC is seeking an end to the August rally, The EC is finding a top, before resuming the decline which originated in June, but interrupted with the current rise, begun in August. This week, the EC is likely to move briefly lower, to 1.1363, before resuming August's upward momentum.

Note: (This week, we turn forecast attention from Dec ‘03 to March ‘04)

Crude oil's (NY-CO-March ‘04, futures) price moved higher, ranging from $27.13 to $28.71 and closed up, at $28.71, last week. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was expected to have a bias toward higher levels, as it did.

This week, CO's (March futures) price is still moving higher, to $29.20. The downward trend was broken last week but it will soon show signs of resistance to higher levels.

The (NY-HU-March ‘04, futures) gasoline price moved much higher, last week. The market traded in a range of $.7657 to $.81, closing up and at the top of its range, at $.81.

This week, the gasoline (March futures) price is moving higher. It may rise less than last week and it will in more time, find a top and turn, lower. The March-‘04 price is rising to $.8247.

The (NY-HO-March ‘04, futures) price of heating oil moved higher, last week. It ranged from $.751 to $.7001, closing up, at $.8001. As forecast in Plazaview, the HO market was not yet settled in its declining phase.

This week, the HO (March futures) price is moving higher, to $.8063 and possibly higher but not by much. The currently rising market is seeking the top price, before declining, to $.7472.

The (NY-NG- March ‘04, futures) natural gas held, last week, within and above the prior week's range. For the week, NG-H ranged from $5.17 to $4.94, closing higher, at $5.084. As forecast in Plazaview, NG had potential for an initial rally.

This week, NG (March futures) is still trending lower, it has a potential base of support to advance but has not yet turned direction. Upper targets begin at $5.511. NG-Z is likely to attempt a rally this week but will need to advance enough to break out of its downtrend.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-13-2003
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(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins higher, at 4.248% and S&P 500 is higher, at 1038.06)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved up, it continued the prior week's interruption of the downward progress. It ranged from 4.146% to 4.348%, closing up, at 4.248%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate is falling but a brief rise, to the target of 4.334% had potential and the yield moved up as expected.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still in an overall downward direction, toward (3.074%) the June 13, low point. Last week's brief rise, to and above the 4.334% target should be enough to complete that interruption before resuming progress, lower. Downward movement will soon resume, toward targets of 4.009%, 3.932%, 3.361%, 3.074% and potentially lower.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved lower. It ranged narrowly, from 100-13/32 to 99-4/32, closing down, at 99-13/32. As described in Plazaview, the T-note is rising, toward its minimum target of 104-6/32 but lingering resistance to higher levels was forecast for last week.

This week begins with the Note indicating decreasing resistance to higher levels. It will soon resume its rise but a period of consolidation may develop before the Treasury market turns up again. In time, the 10-year Note will complete its upward move, toward 104-6/32.

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved narrowly higher. The S&P 500 ranged from 1026.19 to 1048.28, closing higher, at 1028.06. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is seeking a top price in the current advance. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-29.35%).

This week, the U.S. stock market remains in an elevated range above the June - August, thirteen weeks of a sideways holding pattern. The market is seeking a top and due for a turn down. Eventually, it should return closer to the March level of 804 (S&P 500).

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index continued moving lower. The DX moved in a range of 94.42 to 91.25, closing down, at 91.52. As described in Plazaview, the DX has potential to find a base in the area of 92.65 and 91.88 and that is where is ended last week.

This week, the DX still has potential to find a base in the area of 92.65 to 91.88. Last week's closing level should prove a turning point this week. The DX has good potential to rise, toward 94.96.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved higher. It ranged between 1.535 to 1.186 and closed up, at 1.1804. As forecast in Plazaview.com, the euro was likely to move briefly lower, to 1.1363, as it nearly did before turning back up again.

The EC is seeking an end to its August rally. The EC will soon turn lower. This week, the euro begins overextended and increasingly vulnerable to downward fluctuation if it moves higher.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-March ‘04, futures) price moved higher, last week, ranging from $29.50 to $32.50 and closed up, at $31.99. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was expected to move higher, as it did.

This week, CO's (March futures) price has reached an initial, top level. It will soon show signs of resistance to higher levels and should begin fluctuating lower on attempts to rise.

The (NY-HU-March ‘04, futures) gasoline price moved much higher, last week. The market traded in a range of $.797 to $.882, closing up, at $.882. As forecast the market would move higher, as it did.

This week, the gasoline (March futures) price is extended at its current high price. It will be vulnerable on further attempts to rise this week. A pull-back is expected to move the market lower, before another sustainable rise.

The (NY-HO-March ‘04, futures) price of heating oil moved higher, last week. It ranged from $.8105 to $.908, closing up, at $.8918. As forecast in Plazaview, the HO market was expected to move higher, as it did, exceedingly.

This week, the HO (March futures) price is extended and due for a corrective pull-back, lower. The currently rising market is vulnerable on further attempts to rise. It needs to pull-back this week, before it should rise again.

The (NY-NG- March ‘04, futures) natural gas move higher, last week. For the week, NG-H ranged from $4.945 to $6.10, closing higher, at $6.052. As forecast in Plazaview, NG had potential for to rally to the $5.511 target and beyond, as it did.

This week, NG (March futures) are moving higher. The market has additional upward potential for this week. After a further advance but of less range than last week's, there will come a corrective pull-back, before continuing the advance. After a potential rise, this week, and an expected pull-back, beyond this week, the NG market has greater upward range.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-20-2003
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(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins higher, at 4.388% and S&P 500 is at 1039.32)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note inched higher, by .140% points. It ranged from 4.255% to 4.475%, closing up, at 4.388%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate is falling but the prior week's brief rise, to the target of 4.334% should be enough of an interruption, before resuming downward. The rise slowed but it did not turn.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still in an overall downward direction, toward (3.074%) the June 13, low point. Last week's narrow rise, above the 4.334% target will be exceeded this week as this minor correction cycle has nearly, but not yet completed. A falling rate will resume, possibly after this week, and move down to 4.009%, 3.932%, 3.361%, 3.074% and potentially lower targets.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved lower. It ranged narrowly, from 98-4/32 to 99-11/32, closing, nearly one point, at 99-14/32. As described in Plazaview, the T-note is rising, toward its minimum target of 104-6/32 but a mid-cycle resistance and correction, lower is in progress.

This week begins with the Note is still in a mid-cycle correction, to the early September levels. In time, this correction will run its course and 10-year Note will complete its upward move, toward 104-6/32.

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved narrowly higher and closed nearly one point higher. The S&P 500 ranged from 1036.57 to 1053.79, closing higher, at 1039.32. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is due for a turn, lower. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-29.26%).

This week, the U.S. stock market remains above the June - August, thirteen weeks of a sideways holding pattern. The market is seeking its current top and is likely to rise again but this advance will be vulnerable and short-lived. Eventually, the S&P should return closer to the March level of 804 (S&P 500).

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index found a base in the forecasted area, turned and moved higher. The DX moved in a range of 91.49 to 92.98, closing up, at 92.29. As described in Plazaview, the DX has potential to find a base in the area of 92.65 and 91.88, as it has for the past two weeks.

This week, the DX still has potential to rise above the current base area of 92.65 to 91.88. The DX has good potential to continue last week's rise and move toward 94.96.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved lower. It ranged between 1.1816 to 1.1547 and closed down, at 1.1676. As forecast in Plazaview.com, the euro was due to move lower, as it did.

The EC is seeking an end to its August rally. The EC will soon turn lower. This week, the euro will be vulnerable to downward fluctuation if it attempts to move higher.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-March ‘04, futures) price moved lower, last week, ranging from $32.55 to $30.00 and closed down, at $30.70. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was expected to move down, as it did.

This week, CO's (March futures) price has reached a top level. It will soon show signs of resistance to higher levels and should proceed lower and fail on attempts to rise.

The (NY-HU-March ‘04, futures) gasoline price moved lower, last week. The market traded in a range of $.877 to $.812, closing down, at $.826. As forecast, a pull-back was expected to move the market lower, as it did.

This week, the gasoline (March futures) price should proceed further, down. It will be vulnerable on attempts to rise this week.

The (NY-HO-March ‘04, futures) price of heating oil moved lower, last week. It ranged from $.896 to $.815, closing down, at $.8397. As forecast in Plazaview, the HO market was due for a corrective pull-back, lower.

This week, the HO (March futures) price is in a downward path. The market will be vulnerable to selling on further attempts to rise.

The (NY-NG- March ‘04, futures) natural gas moved lower, last week. For the week, NG-H ranged from $6.09 to $5.46, closing lower, at $5.468. As forecast in Plazaview, NG had an expected pull-back, sooner than anticipated.

This week, NG (March futures) is entering a period of top price testing. The near term top is in the area of $6.10. The market has additional upward potential but this upward potential is within a developing trend, toward lower prices.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-27-2003
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(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins lower, at 4.212% and S&P 500 is lower, at 1028.91)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved lower. It ranged from 4.447% to 4.207%, closing down, at 4.212%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate is resuming its downward trend.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still in an overall downward direction, toward (3.074%) the June 13, low point. There is still open potential for snap-back rises but only temporarily. A falling rate will resume, possibly this week, and move down to targets of 4.009%, 3.932%, 3.361% and 3.074%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved higher. It ranged from 98-7/32 to 100-6/32, closing up, at 100-2/32. As described in Plazaview, the T-note is rising, toward its minimum target of 104-6/32.

This week begins with the Note still in a mid-cycle correction, with potential to move down for a rebound, above early September's lower levels. Longer term and in time, this mini-correction will run its course and 10-year Note will resume its upward move, toward 104-6/32.

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved lower. The S&P 500 ranged from 1048.57 to 1018.32, closing down, at 1028.91. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is due for a turn, lower. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-30%).

This week, the U.S. stock market begins in the June - August, thirteen weeks of a sideways holding pattern. The market is seeking its current top and attempts to rise will continue to be vulnerable and short-lived. Eventually, the S&P should return closer to the March level of 804 (S&P 500).

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index tested the forecasted area of its base. The DX moved in a range of 92.75 to 91.01, closing down, at 91.28. As described in Plazaview, the DX has potential to find a base in the area of 92.65 and 91.88. Last week was close enough.

This week, the DX will need to move up to maintain the potential for its current base area of 92.65 to 91.88. On its own, the DX has very good potential to rise, toward 94.96 but this is likely to be delayed by the current downward trend of the yield rate.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved higher but remained in the prior weeks' range. It ranged between 1.1604 to 1.1858 and closed up, at 1.1783. As forecast in Plazaview.com, the euro was due to move lower, but remained static in its upper range.

This week, the EC is marking time, delayed in falling from the top of its August rally. The EC will turn lower or move sideways in a holding pattern. The euro is vulnerable to downward fluctuation if it attempts to move higher.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-March ‘04, futures) price moved down, last week. Partially recovering the week's losses, it ranged from $30.80 to $29.40 and closed down, at $30.16. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was expected to move down, as it did.

This week, CO's (March futures) price has already reached a top level. It will soon show signs of resistance to higher levels and should proceed lower, failing on attempts to rise.

The (NY-HU-March ‘04, futures) gasoline price moved lower, last week. The market traded down but recovered much of the week's losses in a range of $.835 to $.796, closing down, at $.8216. As forecast, a pull-back was expected to move the market lower, as it did.

This week, the gasoline (March futures) price should proceed lower. It is vulnerable on attempts to rise this week.

The (NY-HO-March ‘04, futures) price of heating oil moved lower, last week but recovered some the week's losses. It ranged from $.8485 to $.815, closing down, at $.8288. As forecast in Plazaview, the HO market was due for selling.

This week, the HO (March futures) price remains in a downward path. The market will be vulnerable to selling on further attempts to rise.

The (NY-NG- March ‘04, futures) natural gas moved lower, last week. For the week, NG-H ranged from $5.46 to $5.04, closing lower, at $5.053. As forecast in Plazaview, NG is in a developing trend, toward lower prices.

This week, NG (March futures) is trading below its current top area of $6.10. The market has good potential for a rise this week but rallies will be contested. Contrary to common sentiment, the market appears to have made a top price last April and remains in a developing trend, toward lower prices.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 11-3-2003
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(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins higher, at 4.301% and S&P 500 is higher, at 1050.71)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved lower but rose for the rest of the week. It ranged from 4.392% to 4.187%, closing insignificantly higher, at 4.301%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate is resuming its downward trend.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still in an overall downward direction, toward (3.074%) the June 13, low point. There is still open potential for snap-back rises but only temporarily. The rate is gradually moving lower, possibly further this week, to targets of 4.009%, 3.932%, 3.361% and 3.074%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved slightly higher and inside the prior week's range. It ranged between 100-9/32 and 98-14/32, closing marginally lower, at 99-11/32. As described in Plazaview, the T-note is gradually rising, toward its minimum target of 104-6/32.

This week begins with the Note still in a mid-cycle correction, with potential to move down for a rebound, above early September's lower levels. Longer term and in time, this mini-correction will run its course and the 10-year Note will resume its upward move, toward 104-6/32. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond is inclined to move higher.

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved higher, testing the October high. The S&P 500 ranged from 1029.19 to 1053.09, closing up, at 1050.71. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is in a sideways pattern, delayed before turning lower. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was improved but (-28.49%).

This week, the U.S. stock market begins at the top of its sideways holding pattern. The market is seeking its current top and attempts to rise will advance the market but continue to be vulnerable to an eventual turn-down. Eventually, the S&P 500 should return closer to the March level of 804 (S&P 500).

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index maintained its base and moved higher. The DX moved in a range of 91.34 to 92.77, closing up, at 92.73. As described in Plazaview, the DX had potential to find a base in the area of 92.65 and 91.88.

This week, the DX should continue to maintain the potential for its current base area of 92.65 to 91.88 and move higher. On its own, the DX has very good potential to reach 94.96 but this may be only delayed by the current downward trend of the yield rate.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved lower and below the prior weeks' range. It ranged between 1.1785 and 1.1566, closing down, at 1.1595. As forecast in Plazaview.com, the euro was due to move lower.

This week, the EC is prepared to move further down, from the top of its August rally. The EC will move lower, toward 1.1363. The euro is vulnerable to downward fluctuation if it attempts to move higher.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-March ‘04, futures) price moved down, last week. It ranged from $30.32 to $28.26 and closed further down, at $29.11. As forecast in Plazaview, crude oil was expected to move down, as it did.

This week, CO's (March futures) price has reached a top level and it is in a declining cycle. It will proceed lower, failing on attempts to rise.

The (NY-HU-March ‘04, futures) gasoline price moved lower, last week. The market traded in a range of $.8325 to $.772, closing down, at $.7953. As forecast, the market was expected to move lower, as it did.

This week, the gasoline (March futures) price should continue moving lower. It is vulnerable on attempts to rise this week.

The (NY-HO-March ‘04, futures) price of heating oil moved lower, last week. It ranged from $.8327 to $.775, closing down, at $.8004. As forecast in Plazaview, the HO market was due for selling.

This week, the HO (March futures) price remains in a downward path. The market will be vulnerable to more selling on attempts to rise.

The (NY-NG- March ‘04, futures) natural gas moved lower, last week. For the week, NG-H ranged from $4.99 to $4.64, closing lower, at $4.893. As forecast in Plazaview, NG is in a developing trend, toward lower prices.

This week, NG (March futures) is trading below its current top area of $6.10. The market has limited potential for a rise this week to $5.053 but rallies will be contested. Contrary to common sentiment, the market appears to have made a top price last April and it is trending lower.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 11-10-2003
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(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins higher, at 4.45% and S&P 500 is up, at 1053.21)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved higher. It ranged from 4.287% to 4.491%, closing up, at 4.45%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate has potential for a temporary rise, only a delay of its downward trend.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still in an overall downward direction, toward (3.074%) the June 13, low point. The market has moved down and sideways, since the mid-August high point. More sideways, up and down, movement can be expected as the rate gradually finds its way to the lower targets of 4.009%, 3.932%, 3.361% and 3.074%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved lower. It ranged between 99-11/32 and 98-2/32, closing down, at 98-8/32. As described in Plazaview, the T-note has potential to retrace lower levels, before rising, toward its minimum target of 104-6/32.

This week begins with the Note still in a short-term correction, with potential to move back, down before a rebound. It is currently dropping from September's high point, toward the August low. Beyond this interruption, this mini-correction will run its course and the 10-year Note will resume its upward move, toward 104-6/32. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond is more inclined to go higher.

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved narrowly. The S&P 500 ranged from 1044.88 to 1062.39, closing marginally higher, at 1053.21. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is in a sideways pattern, delayed before turning lower. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was improved but down (-28.32%).

This week, the U.S. stock market is still holding at the top of its sideways and slightly rising pattern. The market is continuing the March rally, while laying the groundwork for its current top. The market is fundamentally inclined to advance but the S&P 500 will eventually turn, toward the March ‘03 level of 804 (S&P 500) before the March - 2000 correction is complete.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index continued to move higher and nearly hit the 94.96 target, as forecast. The DX moved in a range of 92.49 to 94.13, closing up, at 93.02. As described in Plazaview, the DX had potential to rise from its base in the area of 92.65 and 91.88.

This week, the DX should continue to maintain the potential for its current base area of 92.65 to 91.88 and move higher. On its own, the DX has very good potential to reach 94.96 but this may be delayed by the current, downward movement of the yield rate.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved lower, although it recovered much of the decline on Friday. It ranged between 1.1618 and 1.1377, closing down, at 1.1520. As forecast in Plazaview.com, the euro was due to move lower. It nearly hit the 1.1363 target.

This week, the EC is may attempt to recover in an attempt to rally but it is prepared to move further down, from the top of its August rally. The EC is initially moving lower, toward 1.1363. The euro will become vulnerable to downward fluctuation on attempts to move higher.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-March ‘04, futures) price moved up, last week. It ranged from $28.47 to $31.14 and closed higher, at $30.85. As forecast in Plazaview, crude oil should fail on attempts to move higher. Last week's rise is the result of a lost US helicopter and its passengers in Iraq.

This week, CO's (March futures) price is subject to news events in the Middle East, which could push CO back to $32. Otherwise, it has reached a top level and should move lower.

The (NY-HU-March ‘04, futures) gasoline price moved higher, last week. The market traded in a range of $.776 to $.842, closing down, at $.8331. As forecast, the market was expected to move lower. Last week's rise is the result of a lost US helicopter and its passengers in Iraq.

This week, the gasoline (March futures) price should move lower. Due to unforeseen news events from the Middle East, HU is more likely rise this week.

The (NY-HO-March ‘04, futures) price of heating oil moved higher, last week. It ranged from $.775 to $.846, closing up, at $.8358. As forecast in Plazaview, the HO market was due for more selling. Last week's rise is the result of a lost US helicopter and its passengers in Iraq.

This week, the HO (March futures) price remains in a downward path. Due to unforeseen news events from the Middle East, the market is inclined to rise this week.

The (NY-NG- March ‘04, futures) natural gas closed lower, last week. For the week, NG-H ranged between $4.585 and $5.02, closing lower, at $4.706. As forecast in Plazaview, NG is in a developing trend, toward lower prices.

This week, NG (March futures) is trading below its current top area of $6.10. The market has improved its potential to rise and the NG -H is set to rally, toward $5.373.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 11-17-2003
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(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins lower, at 4.233% and S&P 500 is lower, at 1050.35)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved lower. It ranged from 4.48% to 4.219%, closing down, at 4.233%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate is gradually finding its way, down.

This week, the yield rate of the 10-year Note's is still in an overall downward direction, toward (3.074%) the June 13, low point. The market has moved down and sideways, since the mid-August high point. More sideways, up and down, movement can be expected as the rate gradually finds its way to the lower targets of 4.009%, 3.932%, 3.361% and 3.074%. This week is likely to bring a small rise.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved higher. It ranged between 98-3/32 and 100-5/32, closing up, at 100-4/32. As described in Plazaview, the T-note is gradually rising, toward its minimum target of 104-6/32.

This week begins with the Note still moving in a gradually ascending direction. It is currently inclined to temporarily reverse last week's advance. Beyond this interruption, this mini-correction will run its course and the 10-year Note will resume its upward move, toward 104-6/32. The 30-year Bond will temporarily reverse last week's advance.

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved narrowly, within the prior week's range. The S&P 500 ranged between 1043.46 and 1063.65, closing marginally lower, at 1050.35. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is in a sideways pattern, delayed before turning lower. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was down by (-28.51%).

This week, the U.S. stock market is still holding at the top of a sideways and slightly rising pattern, from the March rally. The market is fundamentally inclined to advance but the S&P 500 is at the end of the March ‘03 rally. It is now turning down, toward the March ‘03 level of 804, (S&P 500) to potentially complete the March - 2000, major correction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved down. The DX moved in a range of 93.38 to 91.20, closing down, at 91.44. As described in Plazaview, the DX had potential to rise from its base in the area of 92.65 and 91.88. Instead, it turned down and appears to be retesting its base.

This week, the DX will begin to re-establish a base. The DX is building a significant support pattern of base building. The current base is generally in the area of 92.65 to 91.88 but the current, down cycle will attempt slightly lower levels. The DX had very good potential to reach 94.96 as it nearly did but this been delayed.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved higher. It ranged between 1.1446 and 1.1806, closing up, at 1.1769. The Euro is making a top and last week's rise is part of the gradual process.

This week, the EC may attempt to continue last week's rise but it is a process of testing and making a top price. The euro will move up but also become vulnerable to downward fluctuation on attempts to move higher than the 1.18 area.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-March ‘04, futures) price moved up, last week. It ranged from $30.63 to $32.50 and closed higher, at $32.37. As forecast in Plazaview, crude oil hit the $32., target in reaction to current military events in Iraq and Middle East conflict.

This week, CO's (March futures) price is still subject to news events in the Middle East but it is otherwise due for short-term selling. It is in a long rise but it is now in an immediate top price and will soon retrace last week's advance.

The (NY-HU-March ‘04, futures) gasoline price moved higher, last week. The market traded in a range of $.82 to $.898, closing up, at $.8916. As forecast, the market was expected to rise, due to unforeseen news events from the Middle East.

This week, the gasoline (March futures) price should move lower, despite unforeseen news events from the Middle East. Unless something drastically negative occurs, the market is primed to move back down, to $.8231.

The (NY-HO-March ‘04, futures) price of heating oil moved higher, last week. It ranged from $.828 to $.887, closing up, at $.8797. As forecast in Plazaview, the HO market was inclined to rise last week, due to unforeseen news events from the Middle East.

This week, the HO (March futures) price is very similar to crude oil. Due to unforeseen news events from the Middle East, the market is inclined to rise again but the market is near a top price. After another advance, possibly this week, the market will be due for an initial decline.

The (NY-NG- March ‘04, futures) natural gas closed higher, last week. For the week, NG-H ranged between $4.60 and $5.22, closing up, at $5.112. As forecast in Plazaview, NG had an improved potential to rise, toward $5.373, as it did.

This week, NG (March futures) is trading below its current top area of $6.10. The market has improved its potential to rise and NG -H is set to continue last week's rally, toward $5.373.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 11-24-2003
Review the unsurpassed record of accurate forecasts at the www.Plazaview.com library.

Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins lower, at 4.147%. Yield rate of the 30-year T-bond begins lower, at 5.01%. The (NASDAQ 100) QQQ is higher, at $34.23.

NOTE: CHANGES
Plazaview.com has changed focus, in accordance with market conditions. The new focus is on broad interest, capital markets. These include the following:
Yield rates of the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury bond.
AMEX listed (i-shares) Treasury note and bond funds. Symbols: "IEF" for the 7-10 year Bond and "TLT" for the 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market forecast is represented by the NASDAQ-100, "QQQ".

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved lower. It closed down, at 4.147%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate is gradually finding its way, downward.

This week, the yield rate of the 10-year Note's is still in an overall downward direction, toward the June 13, low point of 3.074%. With time, gradually lower targets of 4.009%, 3.932%, 3.361% and 3.074% will be reached.

Last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) moved higher. It closed up for the week, at $85.35. As described in Plazaview, the T-note is gradually rising.

This week begins with the IEF, (T-note fund) still gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $89. In the short term, of this week, it is inclined to move back down, to about $83.80. Beyond this mini-correction, the 10-year Note will resume its upward move.

Last week, the yield rate of the 30-year T-bond moved lower. It closed down, at 5.01%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate is gradually finding its way, down.

This week, the yield rate of the 30-year T-bond is still in an overall downward direction, toward 4.438%.

Last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) moved higher. It closed up for the week, at $86.50. As described in Plazaview, the T-bond is gradually rising.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) still gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $96. In the short term, of this week, it is inclined to move back down, to about $83.45. Beyond this mini-correction, the 30-year T-bond will resume its upward move.

Last week, the U.S. stock market rebounded, moving higher. The QQQ (NASDAQ 100) closed up, at $34.23.

This week, the U.S. stock market is still holding at the top of a sideways and still slightly rising pattern, from the March rally. The market is inclined to advance but the QQQ appears to be at the end of its March ‘03 rally, due for downward movement. Lower targets begin at $33., and may reach down to $23. In the short-term of this week and possibly into the next, the QQQ is inclined to rise.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 12-1-2003

Review the record of consistently accurate forecasts: www.Plazaview.com library.

NOTE: (CHANGES)
Plazaview.com has new market focus. New focus is on broad interest, capital markets. Included:
Yield rate(s) of the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury bond.
AMEX listed (i-shares) Treasury note and bond funds. Symbols: "IEF" for the 7-10 year Bond and "TLT" for the 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market forecast is represented by the NASDAQ-100, "QQQ."

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved higher. It closed up, at 4.32%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate is gradually finding its way, downward. Last week's forecasted rise is a momentary diversion from the gradual decline.

This week, the yield rate of the 10-year Note is still in an overall downward direction, toward the June 13, low point of 3.074%. However, this week has potential for another rise. With time, gradually lower targets of 4.009%, 3.932%, 3.361% and 3.074% will be reached.

Last week, the yield rate of the 30-year T-bond moved higher. It closed up, at 5.126%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate is gradually finding its way, downward. Last week's forecasted rise is a momentary diversion from the gradual decline.

This week, the yield rate of the 30-year T-bond is still in a downward direction, toward 4.438%. However, this week has potential for another rise. With time, the long rate is gradually moving down, toward June's lower level.

Last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) moved lower. It closed down for the week, at $84.34. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund was inclined to move down, to about $83.80 and it exceeded that.

This week begins with the IEF, (T-note fund) still gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $89. In the short-term, of this week, it is likely to complete last week's limited, downward movement. Beyond this mini-correction, the 10-year Note will resume its upward move.

Last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) moved lower. It closed down for the week, at $85.13. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond was inclined to move down, last week, to about $83.45.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) still gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $96. In the short term, of this week, it is inclined to continue last week's downward move, to about $83.45. Beyond this mini-correction, the 30-year T-bond will resume its upward progress.

The 30-year T-bond (March futures) moved lower, closing at 107-27/32.

The T-bond has more downward potential for this week but it is nearing the end of that decline and a shorter term, upward turn will develop. Longer term, the T-bond is rising, toward June's upper level.

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved higher. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ was inclined to rise in the short-term of last week. The QQQ (NASDAQ 100) closed up, at $35.38.

This week, the U.S. stock market is still holding at the top of a rising and sideways pattern, from the March rally. The market is inclined to advance in the short-term. Except for this short-term movement, the QQQ appears to be at the end of its March ‘03 rally, due for a downward correction. Lower targets begin at $34.25, $33., and may reach down to $23. In the time span of this week, the QQQ is inclined to rise, completing last week's advance.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 12-8-2003

Review the record of consistently accurate forecasts: www.Plazaview.com library.

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note and the 30-year T-bond moved up, during most of the week but dropped on Friday. The T-note closed lower, at 4.215% and the T-bond closed lower, at 5.047%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate had potential to rise but the overall direction is downward, as the week ended.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are still in a downward trend. But, last week's sharp decline is likely to be followed by a rebound, before the rate continues downward progress, toward the low point of June 13. This week's potential for a rise of the T-note's yield rate is up to a target of 4.369%. The rate has been declining since (4.601%) on September 3, for the T-note; since (5.448%) on August 13, for the T-bond.

Last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) moved higher all week. It closed up for the week, at $84.82. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund was inclined to complete the prior week's downward movement. Instead it resumed the primary direction, which is higher.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $89. In the short-term of this week, it is likely to complete last week's turn, moving up to $85.50 / $85.40. That completed, IEF is likely to retain its narrow range by moving back down, to $83.80.

Last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) moved higher all week. It closed up for the week, at $85.80. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund was inclined to continue the prior week's downward move. Instead, it resumed the primary direction, higher.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily but gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $96. In the short term, of this week, it is inclined to complete last week's turn, moving up to about $86.70. That completed, TLT is likely to retain its current range by moving back down, to $83.25.

The 30-year T-bond (March futures) moved lower and sideways until it rallied on Friday, closing up, at 109-14/32. A shorter-term upward turn was forecast by Plazaview.

The T-bond has some upward direction, possibly to 110-21/32, to complete last week's rally. But selling will develop into downward pressure after brief rallies dissolve. Longer term, the T-bond is rising, toward June's upper level.

Last week, the U.S. stock market's QQQ began to move higher, as forecast, but declined for the week, beginning on Wednesday. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ has reached the end of the March ‘03 rally. The QQQ (NASDAQ 100) moved narrowly and closed down, at $35.04.

This week, the QQQ is still holding at the top of a rising and sideways pattern, from the March ‘03 rally. The market will advance in the short-term but this potential is limited, to about $36. Except for this short-term movement, the QQQ is at the end of its March ‘03 rally, due for a downward correction. Gradually lower targets, as well as potential rally levels, begin at $34.25 and $33., eventually, may reach down to $23.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 12-15-2003

Review the record of consistently accurate forecasts: www.plazaview.com library.

NOTE: (CHANGES) Plazaview.com has new market focus. New focus is on broad interest, capital markets. Included:

Yield rate(s) of 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond AMEX listed (i-shares) Treasury note and bond funds. Symbols: IEF for the 7-10 year Bond and TLT for the 20+ year Bond fund. U.S. stock market forecast is represented by the NASDAQ-100, QQQ.

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note and the 30-year T-bond moved slightly higher. The T-note closed marginally up, at 4.242% and the T-bond closed marginally up, at 5.088%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate had limited potential to rise as the overall direction is downward.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are still in a gradually descending trend. The rate will continue downward progress, toward the low point of June 13. As forecast early in Plazaview, yield rates have been declining since (4.601%) on September 3, for the T-note; since (5.448%) on August 13, for the T-bond.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed nearly unchanged for the week, at $84.80. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund was inclined to retain its narrow range.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $89. In the immediate time frame, it is likely to retain its narrow range and corrective down cycle, to about $83.80.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed (-)$.29 for the week, at $85.51. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund was likely to retain its narrow range and move back down.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily but gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $96. In the short term of this week, it is in a minor down swing, likely to retain its current range and moving back down, to around $83.25.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (March futures) moved lower, closing down by (-15/32), at 108-31/32. The forecast of selling was indicated by Plazaview.

The T-bond is primarily rising, toward June’s upper level. But it is a gradual climb and short-term selling will develop along the way, as is indicated in the TLT forecast.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market’s QQQ closed higher, by $.20 for the week, at $35.24. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ has reached the end of the March ‘03 rally and upward potential is limited to about $36.

This week, the QQQ is still holding at the top of a, since March ‘03, rising and increasingly sideways pattern. The market is still in an advancing cycle but this potential is limited, to around $36. The QQQ is stretching at the end of its March ‘03 rally, setting-up for a downward correction. Gradually lower targets, as well as potential rally levels, begin at $34.25 and $33., eventually, it may reach down to $23.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 12-22-2003

Review the record of consistently accurate forecasts: www.Plazaview.com library.

Plazaview.com's current market focus:
Yield rate(s) of 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
AMEX listed (i-shares) Treasury note and bond funds. Symbols: IEF is 7-10 year Bond and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market forecast is represented by NASDAQ-100: QQQ.

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note and the 30-year T-bond moved lower. The T-note closed down, at 4.133% and the T-bond closed down, at 4.961%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate would continue to gradually decend.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are about to temporarily deviate from their primarily descending trend. The rate will soon back-up, before it continues its downward progress, toward the low point of June 13. As forecast early in Plazaview, yield rates have been declining since (4.601%) on September 3, for the T-note; since (5.448%) on August 13, for the T-bond. The current decline is taking time but it is gradually moving lower.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed higher for the week, at $85.45. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising, as it did.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, it will back-down on the way and in the immediate time frame, it is likely to retain its current range and move back down, to about $83.80.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed up +$1.56 for the week, at $87.07. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising, as it did.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily but gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $96. However, in the short term, it is about ready to back-down, to around $85.74 and possibly $83.25.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (March futures) moved higher, closing up by +1-27/32), at 110-26/32. The forecast was for the primary direction of a rise met by selling, as occurred.

The T-bond is primarily rising, toward June's upper level. But it is on a gradual climb and short-term selling is indicated to develop, soon.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's QQQ closed marginally higher, by $.22 for the week, at $35.24. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ has reached the end of the March ‘03 rally and upward potential is limited to about $36.

This week, the QQQ is still holding at the top of the March ‘03, rising but increasingly in a sideways pattern. The market is in an advancing cycle but this potential is currently limited, to around $36. The QQQ is stretching at the end of its March ‘03 rally. Gradually lower targets, as well as potential rally levels, begin at $34.25 and $33., eventually, it may reach down to $23.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 12-29-2003

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rate(s) of 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds. IEF is 7-10 year Bond and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market forecast of NASDAQ-100: QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved higher by .015% and the 30-year T-bond moved higher by .008%. The T-note closed up, at 4.148% and the T-bond closed up, at 4.969%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate would temporarily rise.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are now in a temporary rise, in contrast with the primarily descending trend. The rate is retracing some of its recent decline, before it continues lower, toward the low point of June 13. As forecast, early, in Plazaview, yield rates have declined since the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13. The rate is slowly progressing, downward.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed only -$.01 lower for the week, at $85.44. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising, but in the short term it was due for a decline.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed slightly lower -$.09 for the week, at $86.98. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising, but due for a short term decline.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, to a minimum target of $96. However, in the short term, it is due for a downward retracement, to around $85.74 and possibly $83.25.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (March futures) moved slightly higher, closing up by +3/32, at 110-29/32. The forecast was for the primarily upward direction to enter a period of short term selling. Last week's small advance was the result.

The T-bond is primarily rising, toward June's upper level. But it is on a gradual climb and short-term selling is indicated to develop, soon.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ closed marginally higher, up by $.61 for the week, at $35.85. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ has reached the end of the March ‘03 rally and upward potential is currently limited to about $36.

This week, the QQQ is holding at the top of the March ‘03 rise but increasingly in a sideways pattern. The market is in an advancing cycle but its potential is currently limited, to around $36. The QQQ is stretching the end of its March ‘03 rally. Gradually lower targets, as well as potential rally levels, begin at $34.25 and $33.00; eventually, it may reach down to $23.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed at 106.77. Since its 112.29 level of December 2, the index has taken a primary turn and the direction is down. These precious metals will continue to move lower.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

PLAZAVIEW.COM PROVIDES NO INVESTMENT ADVICE NOR OPINION.