Plazaview.com

 Forecast Records - 4th Qtr. of 2001

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-1-2001 (S&P starts at 1040.94)

On 9/11/01, the U.S.A.'s New York financial center and the Pentagon were attacked by means of hijacked aircraft. As a result, fundamental influences from late breaking news developments may suddenly change the direction of all financial markets this week and in the following weeks. Volatility in all markets, due to related news events, is now a constant variable.

Last week was the second week of market response to the (9/11/01) hijacking of two commercial airliners and the carnage of thousands of lives at New York City's World Trade Center. The markets were still in a defensive position but the U.S. markets rallied by week's end. The S&P 500 traded higher and closed the week at 1040.94. The Dow 30 closed up for the week, at 8847.56. For this year, the S&P 500 was above its low but down by (- 21.16%).

The U.S.A.'s stock market indices have been in a major correction phase since March of 2000, but the long term trend remains upward. The stock markets in the USA and the world are now inclined to be defensive until political and military uncertainty, caused by the recent terrorist attack, is resolved. Although the market indices are oversold and the markets are poised to rally soon, defensive cash reserves should remain as such. The recent market low is not yet proven. There are several stages of bottom completion and an eventual turning of the market. The first stage requires an initial and significant market rebound. There will be plenty of opportunity to buy later; buying at an unproven low is an avoidable and unnecessary risk.

Last week the (Dec.) T-bond rallied as forecast in Plazaview and to the target of 105.13/32. By the end of the week, the (Dec.) Bond gained 73/32 and closed up, at 105.16/32. This week, aside from the uncertain fundamentals, the Bond has less potential to rally but there is capacity to go higher. In time, as the Bond reaches it maximum, it will reverse direction. A lower targets is at 103.14, and for the more distant future, at 101.13, 100.11, and 97.30.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond remained in a narrow range held above its support level as the rate moved lower last week, as forecast in Plazaview, to close at 5.415%. The yield rate continues to hold above a key level of support and if this holds the rate will be inclined to move slightly higher. Eventually, the rate will move further down, to a target of 5.297% and possibly 5.086% or lower.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index moved slightly higher again, closing for the week at 113.41. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a long, top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar appears to have established its top and since then, it is gradually correcting to lower levels. This week, the Dollar is in a downward correction phase but upward volatility may push the dollar higher. The next upper target is at 117.18. The next lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index finished last week at a lower level and it hit the (190) target as forecast in Plazaview. At last Friday's close, the CRB index settled at 190.49. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of last year. The index can be expected to continue moving lower, but a temporary rise or bounce is now due.

Crude oil (NY) spiked down last week and partially recovered. The ( Dec) CO closed down, at $23.68. This week, CO remains in a trading range with sideways direction the likely result until current, world political uncertainties are resolved. Sudden volatility may develop this week. There is a lower target at (Dec.) $23.05 and higher targets at $26.26 and $28.15.

The NY gasoline market spilled much lower and partially recovered at the end of last week. The (Dec) HU settled down, at $.6418. This week, HU is in a downward correction but it is now oversold. A corrective rally would be reaching for an initial target at $.7101, possibly higher, at $.7648 and $.7849.

The NY heating oil market fell much lower but it recovered slightly by the end of last week. The (Dec) HO contract closed down, at $.6774. This week, HO is in a downward trend but it is likely to rally if CO temporarily rises. With the military and political uncertainties in the Middle East, the HO market will be primarily news driven until winter weather arrives.

The NY natural gas market tested marginally lower and maintained a narrow range last week. The (Dec) NG contract closed down last week, at $2.622. Aside from international events as they now apply to the energy markets, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom as previously described in Plazaview. As winter approaches, buyers will take interest and the (Dec) contract will move up, to immediate targets of $2.832, $2.977, $3.125, $3.30 $3.396, $4.336, and $5.354.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-8-2001 (S&P starts at 1071.38)

On 9/11/01, the U.S.A.'s New York financial center and the Pentagon were attacked by means of hijacked aircraft. As a result, fundamental influences from evolving news developments have all markets in an uncertain state of suspension and this may suddenly change the direction of the financial markets in the following weeks. Volatility in all markets is unusually variable.

Last week was the third week of market response to the (9/11/01) hijacking of two commercial airliners and the carnage of thousands of lives at New York City's World Trade Center as well as the U.S. Pentagon building. There were signs of recovery as markets continued the prior week's rally. The S&P 500 closed higher for the week at 1071.38. The Dow 30 closed up for the week, at 9119.77. For this year, the S&P 500 was above its low but down by (-18.85%).

This will be the fourth week since the 9/11/01 incident. The U.S.A.'s stock market indices have been in a major correction phase since March of 2000, but the long term trend remains upward. The stock market in the USA and the world are now in a defensive posture until political and military uncertainty, caused by the recent terrorist attack, is resolved. Economic recession is an uncertain potential for general concern. However, the market indices are oversold and the markets are poised to rise as they have for the past two weeks. Still, defensive investment reserves should remain as such until the bottom of this correction is established. The recent market low is not yet proven and it may be revisited in the future. There will be plenty of opportunity to buy later; buying at an unproven low is an avoidable risk.

Last week the (Dec.) T-bond moved higher again as forecast in Plazaview. By the end of the week, the (Dec.) Bond closed up, at 106.25/32. This week, aside from the uncertain fundamentals, the Bond has less potential to rally but there is capacity to go higher. As it rises further, the Bond is already near its maximum and sellers are likely to become conspicuous and the Bond will soon move down. An immediate and lower target is at 103.14; for the more distant future, lower targets are at 101.13, 100.11, and 97.30.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond moved down and hit the forecast target of (5.29%) during last week; it closed down, at 5.315%. The yield rate is still holding above a key level of support and if this holds, the rate will be inclined to move slightly higher. Eventually, the rate will continue to move further down, through the 5.297% target and possibly 5.086% or lower.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index moved slightly lower, closing down for the week at 112.76. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a long, top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar appears to have established its top and since then, it is gradually moving to lower levels. This week, the Dollar is in a downward correction phase but upward volatility may push the dollar higher. The next upper target is at 117.18. The next lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index finished last week at a slightly lower level. At last Friday's close, the CRB index settled down (-1.04) at 189.49. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of last year. The index held last week at the current lows and it can be expected to eventually continue moving lower but a temporary rise is now due.

Crude oil (NY) remained in a volatile but narrow and stabilized range last week. The ( Dec.) CO moved down to hit the Plazaview forecast target of $23.05 and closed (-$.87) down, at $22.81. This week, CO remains in a trading range with sideways direction the likely result until current, world political uncertainties are resolved. Sudden volatility may develop this week. The (Dec.) CO has higher targets at $26.26 and $28.15.

The NY gasoline market was volatile but remained in a stabilized range last week. The (Dec.) HU settled down, at $.6214. This week, HU is in a downward correction but it is now oversold. A corrective rally will be reaching for an initial target at $.7101, possibly higher, at $.7648 and $.7849.

The NY heating oil market traded in a volatile range but remained in a base building trend last week. The (Dec.) HO contract closed (-$.0265) down, at $.6509. This week, HO is in a downward correction phase but last week's action left open the potential to rally this week. With the military and political uncertainties in the Middle East, the HO market is news driven until the more certain cold of winter weather arrives.

The NY natural gas market rallied higher but gave back some of its gains by the end of last week. The (Dec.) NG closed only slightly lower (-$.005) last week, at $2.617. Aside from international events as they now apply to the energy markets, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom as previously described in Plazaview. As winter weather approaches, buyers will take interest and the (Dec.) contract will move up, to immediate targets of $2.77, $2.832, $2.977, $3.125, $3.30 $3.396, $4.336, and $5.354.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-15-2001 (S&P starts at 1091.65)

On 9/11/01, the U.S.A.'s New York financial center and the Pentagon were attacked by means of hijacked aircraft. As a result, fundamental influences from evolving news developments have all markets in an uncertain state of suspension and this may suddenly change the direction of the financial markets in the following weeks. Volatility in all markets is unusually variable.

Last week was the fourth week of market response to the (9/11/01) hijacking of two commercial airliners and the carnage of thousands of lives at New York City's World Trade Center as well as the U.S. Pentagon building. The market was volatile but ended higher for the third week. The S&P 500 closed up for the week at 1091.65. The Dow 30 closed up for the week, at 9344.16. For this year, the S&P 500 was above its low but down by (-17.32%).

This will be the fifth week since the 9/11/01 incident. The U.S.A.'s stock market indices continue in a major correction phase, lasting since March of 2000. The long term trend remains upward and the immediate trend is rebounding higher, from an oversold condition. The stock market in the USA and the world are currently in a defensive posture as political and military uncertainty, caused by the recent terrorist attack, is resolved. Economic recession has recently become an uncertain potential of general concern. However, the market indices are oversold and the markets have begun to rise in a temporary rebound as they have for the past three weeks. For now, patient investment reserves will be sidelined until the bottom of this correction is established. The recent market low is not yet proven and it may be revisited in the future.

Last week the (Dec.) T-bond moved slightly higher but sellers quickly took control as forecast in Plazaview. By the end of the week, the (Dec.) Bond closed down, at 105.12/32. This week, the Bond has less potential to rally but may try to test higher again. The Bond has already established a potential top and sellers are likely to become more conspicuous in the wake of any rallies. An immediate and lower (Dec.) target is at 103.14; for the more distant future, lower targets are at 101.13, 100.11, and 97.30.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond held above its key support and moved up last week, as forecast in Plazaview. It closed at 5.422%. As the yield rate still holds above key support, the rate will be inclined to move slightly higher or sideways. Eventually, the rate will move further down, through the 5.297% target and possibly 5.086% or lower.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index moved slightly higher as forecast in Plazaview. It closed up for the week at 113.60. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a long, top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar appears to have established its top and since then, it is gradually moving to lower levels. This week, the Dollar is in a primarily downward correction phase but immediate volatility may push the dollar higher. This currently looks to be a long and gradual correction. The next upper target is at 117.18. The next lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index finished last week at a slightly lower level. At last Friday's close, the CRB index settled down at 185.63. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of last year. The index is near the lows of 1999 and it can be expected to eventually continue moving lower. Soon, a temporary rise is due.

Crude oil (NY) became volatile at the end of last week as it ranged higher. The ( Dec.) CO gained (+$0.01) last week, to close at $22.82. This week, CO is in a downward trend but due for a rally. It remains in a volatile trading range until current, world political uncertainties are resolved. The (Dec.) CO has higher targets at $26.26 and $28.15.

The NY gasoline market was volatile at the end of last week but it remained in a stabilized range. The (Dec.) HU rallied and then it closed down, at $.6091. This week, HU is in a downward correction but it is now oversold. A corrective rally will be reaching for an initial target at $.7101, possibly higher, at $.7648 and $.7849.

The NY heating oil market traded in a pattern similar to gasoline, in a stable range but volatile at the end of the week. The (Dec.) HO contract rallied and then it closed down, at $.6476. This week, HO is in a downward correction phase and it has room to go lower. With the military and political uncertainties in the Middle East, the HO market is news driven until the more certain cold of winter weather arrives.

The NY natural gas market gradually rallied higher, hitting the first and second targets ($2.77 & $2.832) as forecast in Plazaview but gave back some of the advance by the end of last week. The (Dec.) NG closed higher last week, at $2.725. Aside from the evolving international events in Afghanistan, as they now apply to the energy markets, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. As winter weather approaches, buyers will take great interest and the (Dec.) contract will move up, to immediate targets of $2.833, $2.977, $3.125, $3.30 $3.396, $4.336, and $5.354.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-22-2001 (S&P starts at 1073.48)

On 9/11/01, the U.S.A.'s New York financial center and the Pentagon were attacked with hijacked aircraft. As a result, fundamental influences from evolving news developments have all markets in an uncertain state of interruption and this may suddenly change the direction of the financial markets in the following weeks. Volatility in all markets is unusually variable.

Last week was the fifth week of market response to the (9/11/01) hijacking of two commercial airliners and the carnage of thousands of lives at New York City's World Trade Center, as well as the U.S. Pentagon building. The market was volatile as it cautiously attempted an advance; the week ended moderately lower. The S&P 500 closed down for the week at 1073.48. The Dow 30 closed down for the week, at 9204.11. For this year, the S&P 500 was above its lowest point but down by (-18.69%).

This will be the sixth week since the 9/11/01 incident. The U.S.A.'s stock market indices continue in a major correction phase, lasting since March of 2000. The long term trend remains upward and the immediate trend is rebounding higher, from an oversold condition. The stock market in the USA and the world are currently in a defensive, watchful demeanor as political and military questions, caused by the recent terrorist attacks, are resolved. Economic recession has recently become an uncertain potential of general concern. However, the market indices are oversold and during the past four weeks, have begun a temporary rebound. Investment reserves will be sidelined for a while, until the bottom of this correction is established. The recent market low is not yet conclusive and it may be revisited in the future.

Last week the (Dec.) T-bond moved within the prior week's range and higher as forecast in Plazaview. By the end of the week, the (Dec.) Bond closed up, at 106.9/32. This week, the Bond has renewed potential to rally. The Bond has established a potential top but before moving down, another test of the nearby top is likely. An immediate and lower (Dec.) target is also waiting at 103.14; for the more distant future, lower targets are at 101.13, 100.11, and 97.30.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond moved lower but held just above its key support last week. It closed down, at 5.357%. As the yield rate holds above its key support, the rate will be inclined to move slightly higher or sideways as it has for the past three weeks. Eventually, the rate will move further down, through the 5.297% target and possibly 5.086% or lower.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index was moved back up as forecast in Plazaview. It closed up for the week at 114.88. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a (one year), top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar appears to have established its top and since then, it is gradually moving to lower levels. This week, the Dollar is in a primarily downward correction phase but immediate volatility may push the dollar higher. This currently looks to be a long and gradual correction. The next upper target is at 117.18. The next lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index finished last week at a slightly lower level. At last Friday's close, the CRB index settled down at 184.94. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago. The index is testing the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually continue moving lower. More immediately, a temporary rise is due, now.

Crude oil (NY) moved lower during most of last week but rallied at the end of the week. The (Dec.) CO recovered some of its losses but settle down last week, to close at $22.26. This week, CO is in a long, downward trend but now due for a rally. It remains in a volatile trading range until current, world political uncertainties are resolved. The (Dec.) CO has higher targets waiting at $26.26 and $28.15.

The NY gasoline market moved lower during most of last week but rallied at the end of the week. HU recovered nearly all of its losses for last week but still closed down, at (Dec.) $.5985. This week, HU is in a downward correction and it is now oversold. A corrective rally is due and it will reach for an initial target at $.7101, possibly higher, at $.7648 and $.7849.

The NY heating oil market traded lower and in a pattern similar to crude and gasoline, it rallied at the end of last week. The (Dec.) HO contract recovered most of its losses but still closed lower, at $.6339. This week, HO is in a downward correction phase and it may remain lower in price as it seeks a bottom. With the military and political uncertainties in the Middle East, the HO market is news driven until the more certain cold of winter weather arrives.

The NY natural gas market was volatile last week but continued in an upward trend, hitting the first and second targets ($2.833 & $2.977) as forecast in Plazaview. The (Dec.) NG closed higher last week, at $2.99. Aside from the evolving international events in Afghanistan, as they now apply to the energy markets, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. As winter weather approaches, buyers will take greater interest and the (Dec.) contract will move up, to immediate targets of $3.125, $3.30 $3.396, $4.336, and $5.354.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-29-2001 (S&P starts at 1104.61)

On 9/11/01, the U.S.A.'s New York financial center and the Pentagon were attacked with hijacked aircraft. As a result, fundamental influences from evolving news developments have all markets in an uncertain state of interruption; volatility in all markets is unusually variable.

Last week was the sixth week of market activity since the (9/11/01) hijacking of commercial airliners and the carnage of thousands of lives at New York City's World Trade Center, as well as the U.S. Pentagon building. The market was volatile but it continued to advance higher by the end of the week. The S&P 500 closed up for the week at 1104.61. The Dow 30 closed up for the week, at 9545.17. For this year, the S&P 500 was above its lowest point but down by (-16.34%).

This will be the seventh week since the 9/11/01 incident. The U.S.A.'s stock market indices remain in a major correction phase, begun in March of 2000. The long term trend remains upward and the immediate trend is now temporarily rebounding from an oversold correction. The stock market in the USA and the world are in a defensive, watchful demeanor as unsettled political and military issues related to the terrorists' attacks are being resolved. Although the market indices have begun a temporary rebound, investment reserves will be sidelined until the bottom of this correction is established. The recent market low is not conclusive and following the current rebound, this low point may be revisited in the future.

Last week the (Dec.) T-bond moved higher, testing the recent top as forecast in Plazaview. By the end of the week, the (Dec.) Bond closed up, at 107.22/32. This week, the Bond still has potential to rally but buyers should be cautious. The Bond is now testing the top and moving higher in the process. In future weeks from now, an immediate and lower (Dec.) target will be attained at 103.14; for the more distant future, lower targets are at 101.13, 100.11, and 97.30.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond moved lower, eroding its key support last week. It closed down, at 5.269%, moving through the 5.297% target as forecast in Plazaview. Now that support is eroding, the rate will move further down, possibly to 5.086% or lower.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index moved up on immediate volatility, as forecast in Plazaview. It closed up for the week at 115.53. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a (one year), top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar appears to have established its top and since then, it is gradually moving to lower levels. This week, the Dollar is in a primarily downward correction phase but immediate volatility may push the dollar higher. This now looks to be a long and gradual correction. The next upper target is at 117.18. The next lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index finished last week at a marginally lower level. At last Friday's close, the CRB index settled down at 184.94. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago and it is now due for a rebound. The index is testing the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually continue moving lower but more immediately, a temporary rise is due.

Crude oil (NY) moved lower in a relatively tight pattern during most of last week. The (Dec.) CO settled slightly lower last week, to close at $22.03. This week, CO is in a long, downward trend but it is now due for a rebound. It remains in a volatile trading range until current, world political uncertainties are resolved. The (Dec.) CO has higher targets waiting at $26.26 and $28.15.

The NY gasoline market moved in a relatively stable and narrow pattern during most of last week; HU closed lower, at (Dec.) $.587. This week, HU is moving within a downward technical correction but it is now oversold. A corrective rally is due and that will be reaching for an initial target at $.7101, possibly higher, at $.7648 and $.7849.

The NY heating oil market traded in a gradually rising trend last week but gave back part of the week's gain at the end of last week. The (Dec.) HO closed lower, at $.632. This week, HO is in a downward correction phase and the price would otherwise be restrained. However, the HO market is now driven by increased user demand, matching with approaching cold of winter.

The NY natural gas market was upwardly mobile last week. Continuing in an upward trend last week, the (Dec.) NG hit the first target ($3.125) forecast in Plazaview. The (Dec.) NG closed higher last week, at $3.183. NG is leading the other energy markets as it moves higher. As winter weather is now approaching, buyers will take greater interest and the (Dec.) contract will move up, to immediate targets of $3.30 $3.396, $4.336, and $5.354.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 11-5-2001 (S&P starts at 1087.20)

Last week was the seventh week of market activity since the (9/11/01) hijacking of commercial airliners and the carnage of thousands of lives at New York City's World Trade Center, as well as Washington, D.C.'s Pentagon building. The stock market continued to be volatile but its recent advance became limited and by the end of the week, the S&P 500 closed slightly lower for the week at 1087.20. The Dow 30 closed down for the week, at 9323.54. For this year, the S&P 500 was above its lowest point but down by (-17.65%).

This will be the eighth week since the 9/11/01 incident. The U.S.A.'s stock market indices have been in a major correction phase, begun in March of 2000 and the bottom is not yet established. The long term trend remains upward and the immediate trend is now in an advanced rebound from a temporarily oversold correction. These are unusual times as stock markets in the USA and the world are in a defensive, watchful demeanor as unsettled political and military issues are being resolved. Although the market indices have been in a temporary rebound, investment reserves will be sidelined until the bottom of this correction is established. The current rebound will be followed with a retest of the year's lowest point.

Last week the (Dec.) T-bond moved higher, further testing the recent top as forecast in Plazaview. By the end of the week, the (Dec.) Bond had ranged up to 112.18 but gave back much of the gain closing up, at 109.10/32. This week, the Bond has more limited potential to rally and buyers should be very cautious. The Bond is testing for a top and will continue to give back its advances as rallies fail in the process. In future weeks from now, an immediate and lower (Dec.) target will be attained at 103.14; for the more distant future, lower targets are at 101.13, 100.11, and 97.30 but we will have already rolled into the March contract by then.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond moved much lower during last week, at 4.954%. Even after recovering most of the drop, it closed below the target as forecast in Plazaview. The rate is now in a lower range as was also forecast in Plazaview but as the Bond is searching for a top, the yield is now predisposed to volatility.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index moved in a narrow range and closed slightly lower, at 114.49. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a (one year), top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar appears to have established its top and since then, it is gradually moving to lower levels. This week, the Dollar is in a primarily downward correction phase but immediate volatility may push the dollar higher. This market is currently in a slow and gradual correction. The Dollar is now trading in a range, between the upper target at 117.18 and the lower target at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index finished last week at a marginally higher level. At last Friday's close, the CRB index settled up at 185.65. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago and as forecast in Plazaview, it is now due for a temporary rebound. The index is testing the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually continue moving lower but more immediately, a temporary rise is due.

Crude oil (NY) moved lower in a broad range during most of last week. The (Dec.) CO settled slightly down last week, to close at $20.18. This week, CO remains in a long and downward trend but it is now overdue for a temporary rebound. CO is in a potentially volatile trading range as the current, world political and military issues are resolved. The (Dec.) CO has higher targets, waiting at $20.39, $22.20, $26.26 and $28.15.

The NY gasoline market moved down, in a mirror pattern with CO during most of last week. HU closed lower, at (Dec.) $.544. This week, HU remains in a long and downward trend but it is now overdue for a temporary rebound. A corrective rally will be reaching for an initial target at $.5706, eventually higher, at $.7101, $.7648 and $.7849.

The NY heating oil market also moved down, in a mirror pattern with CO during most of last week. The (Dec.) HO closed lower, at $.5826. This week, HO is in a downward correction phase and the price is due for a rebound. The HO market is depressed by supply but price will soon be driven by increased user demand, matching with the approaching cold of winter.

The NY natural gas market was, for the fourth week, moving up last week. Continuing in its recently acquired, upward trend, the (Dec.) NG hit two more of the targets ($3.30 and $3.3396) as forecast in Plazaview. The (Dec.) NG closed higher last week, at $3.323. NG leads the other energy markets as it moves higher but not independently. As winter weather is now approaching, buyers will take greater interest and the (Dec.) contract will move up, to the next immediate targets of $4.336 and $5.354. Traders may become wary above the current level as a temporary pull back is now developing some potential.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 11-12-2001 (S&P starts at 1120.31)

Last week was the eighth week of market activity since the (9/11/01) hijacking of commercial airliners and the carnage of thousands of lives at New York City's World Trade Center, as well as Washington, D.C.'s Pentagon building. The Federal reserve reduced its rate again and the stock market resumed its cautious advance. By the end of last week, the S&P 500 closed higher, at 1120.31. The Dow 30 closed higher for the week, at 9608. For this year, the S&P 500 was somewhat recovered and above its lowest point but down by (-15.15%).

The U.S.A.'s stock market indices have been in a major correction phase, begun in March of 2000 and the bottom is temporarily in place but not yet proven. The long term trend remains upward and the immediate trend is now in a rebound from its formerly oversold correction phase. These are unusual times as stock markets in the USA and the world are in a defensive, watchful demeanor, while unsettled political and military issues are being resolved. Although the market indices have been in a temporary rebound, investment reserves will be mostly sidelined until the bottom of this correction is proven. The current rebound is not complete and a further advance is likely but eventually, it is as likely to be followed by a retest of the year's lowest point.

Last week the (Dec.) T-bond's range was limited, as forecast in Plazaview, and it remained within the range of the prior week. By the end of the week, the (Dec.) Bond closed one point higher, at 110.14/32. This week, the Bond is still in an up trend and it has the capacity to move higher but buyers should remain cautious. The Bond is testing for a top and will continue to give back its advances as rallies fail in the process. In future weeks from now, an immediate and lower (Dec.) target will be attained at 103.14; for the more distant future, lower targets are at 101.13, 100.11, and 97.30 but we will have rolled into the March contract by then.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond was volatile last week, as forecast in Plazaview. It moved to new lows, not seen since 1999, but then bounced back up again and ended lower for the week at 4.875%. The rate is now moving within its lower range as forecast in Plazaview, but as the Bond is searching for a top, the yield will continue to be predisposed to volatility.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index remained in a narrow range and as forecast in Plazaview, it closed slightly higher on volatility, at 115.05. As described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a (one year), top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar appears to have established its top and since then, it is gradually moving to lower levels. This week, the Dollar is in a primarily downward correction phase but immediate volatility may continue to push the dollar higher. This market is currently in a slow and gradual correction. The Dollar is trading in a range, between the upper target at 117.18 and the lower target at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index finished last week at a higher level, as forecast in Plazaview. At last Friday's close, the CRB index settled up at 189.03. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago and as forecast in Plazaview, it is now due for a further rebound. The index is testing the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually continue moving lower but more immediately, a temporary rise is likely.

Crude oil (NY) moved higher in a rebounding move as forecast in Plazaview, hitting two targets forecast at ($20.39 and $22.20). The (Dec.) CO settled higher last week, to close at $22.22. CO is in a potentially volatile trading range as the current, world political and military issues are being resolved. This week, CO remains in a long and downward trend but it is now in a temporary rebound. The (Dec.) CO has higher targets, waiting at $26.26 and $28.15. Any pull back will be targeted to move back down to $21.17 and $20.19..

The NY gasoline market rebounded last week as forecast in Plazaview, hitting the first target forecast at $.5706. HU closed higher, at (Dec.) $.6071. This week, HU remains in a long, downward trend but it is now in a temporary rebound. A corrective rally will be reaching higher, for targets at $.7101, $.7648 and $.7849. Any pull back will be targeted to $.5764 and $.5463.

The NY heating oil market rebounded last week as forecast in Plazaview. The (Dec.) HO closed higher, at $.6268. This week, HO remains in a downward trend but it is now in a rebounding phase. The HO market is depressed by supply but price will soon be driven by increased user demand, matching with the approaching cold of winter. An upper target waits at $.7269 and any pull back action will be targeted to $.6072 and $.5718.

The NY natural gas market pulled back from its recent advance, as forecast in Plazaview. Traders became wary as the market quickly moved lower and then sideways for the week. Switching to the more distant March contract, NG (March) closed lower last week, at $3.102. NG has been leading the other energy markets as it moved higher and this will repeat. As winter weather is now approaching, buyers will take greater interest and the (March) contract will move up, to the next immediate target of $3.323. Unless cold weather forces prices up this week, traders are likely to remain defensive and a temporary pull back may be targeted for $2.81.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 11-19-2001 (S&P starts at 1138.65)

Last week was the ninth week of market activity since the (9/11/01) hijacking of commercial airliners and the carnage of thousands of lives at New York City's World Trade Center, as well as Washington, D.C.'s Pentagon building. As forecast in Plazaview, the stock market continued its cautious advance from a previously oversold condition. The S&P 500 closed higher, at 1138.65. The Dow Ind. 30 closed higher for the week, at 9866.99 For this year, the S&P 500 was somewhat recovered from its lowest point of September 21, but down by (-13.76%).

The U.S.A.'s stock market indices are working through a correction phase, begun in March of 2000 and the September low point is temporarily a bottom but not yet proven. The long term trend remains upward and the immediate trend is in a rebounding cycle from its formerly oversold correction phase. These are unusual times as equity markets in the USA and the world are in a defensive, watchful demeanor. While unsettled political and military issues are being resolved, most of Asia and Europe are in an economic downturn. Although the market indices have been in a temporary rebound, investment reserves will be mostly sidelined until the bottom of this correction is proven. The current (USA) rebound has higher levels to attain but resistance and volatility will begin at (S&P 500) 1170. Eventually, the current advance and the nearing test of resistance is likely to be followed by a retest of the September 21, lowest point.

Last week the (Dec.) T-bond's attempt to rally failed again, as forecast in Plazaview, and it recoiled to lower levels. By the end of the week, the (Dec.) Bond closed (-5.16/32) lower, at 104.30/32. This week begins with the Bond resting on a critical level of support. If this support holds, the Bond will reverse its immediate, falling trend and rebound higher. A nearby and lower (Dec.) target is waiting at 103.14. For the more distant future, lower targets are at 101.13, 100.11, and 97.30 but we will have rolled into the March contract by then.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond recovered last week from some of its prior reduction. It moved back up, within the range described in Plazaview and ended higher for the week at 5.30%. The rate is still within its range but if the Bond does not hold above its immediate support level, the yield rate will break out of its range and move higher. This is a potentially critical week for the Bond and the yield rate.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index moved up as forecast in Plazaview. It closed higher last week, at 115.43. As described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a (one year), top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar established its top and since then, it is gradually moving to lower levels. This week, the Dollar is in a primarily downward correction phase but immediate volatility may continue to push the dollar higher. This market is currently in a slow and gradual correction. The Dollar is trading in a range, between the upper target at 117.18 and the lower target at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index finished last week at a marginally lower level. At last Friday's close, the CRB index settled down at 188.39. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago and as forecast in Plazaview, it is now due for a temporary rebound. The index is testing the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually continue moving lower but for now, a temporary rise is likely to develop.

Crude oil (NY) slipped down last week , hitting the (Dec.) pullback targets ($21.17 and $20.19) as forecast in Plazaview. The (Dec.) CO settled down last week, closing at $18.03. CO remains in a potentially volatile trading range as the current, world political and military issues are being resolved. This week, although CO remains in a long and downward trend, it is now due for a temporary rebound. The (Dec.) CO has higher targets, waiting at $19.74, $21.67, $22.22, $26.26 and a more distant $28.15. Further selling this week will be excessive.

The NY gasoline market spilled down last week, hitting the (Dec.) pull back targets ($.5764 and $.5463) as forecast in Plazaview. HU closed ($0.1049) lower for last week, at (Dec.) $.5022. This week, HU remains in a long, downward trend but it is now due for a temporary rebound. A corrective rally will be reaching higher, for targets at $.5337, $.5801, $.6071, $.7101, $.7648 and $.7849. Further selling this week will be excessive.

The NY heating oil market cascaded down last week, hitting the (Dec.) pull back targets ($.6072 and $.5718) as forecast in Plazaview. The (Dec.) HO closed (-$0.1050) lower, at $.5218. This week, HO remains in a downward trend but it is now due for a temporary rebound. The HO market is depressed by supply and relatively warm weather but price may soon be moved by increased user demand, matching with the level of cold winter weather. Higher targets await at $.5612, $.6093, $.6268 and $.7269. Further selling this week will be excessive.

The NY natural gas market pulled back last week, hitting the (March) pull back target ($2.81) as forecast in Plazaview. The March contract settled lower last week, at $2.898. NG has been leading the other energy markets as it initially moved higher. Potentially, it will take another week or more to begin to establish a trend, higher. As winter weather is now approaching, buyers will take greater interest and the (March) contract will move up, to targets of $2.924, $3.02 and $3.323. Traders are likely to remain defensive this week but an inclination to the buy side may bring volatility.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 11-26-2001 (S&P starts at 1150.34)

Last week was the tenth week of market activity since the (9/11/01) hijacking of commercial airliners and the carnage of thousands of lives at New York City's World Trade Center, as well as Washington, D.C.'s Pentagon building. As forecast in Plazaview, the stock market continued its cautious advance from a previously oversold condition. The S&P 500 closed higher, at 1150.34. The Dow Ind. 30 closed higher for the week, at 9959.71. For this year, the S&P 500 was partially recovered from its lowest point of September 21, but down by (-12.87%).

The U.S.A.'s stock market indices are gradually working through a correction phase, which began in March of 2000 and the September low is the current bottom but not yet proven. The long term trend remains upward and the immediate trend is in a rebounding cycle from its formerly oversold correction phase and September low. The equity markets in the USA and the world are in a defensive, watchful demeanor. While unsettled political and terrorist' military issues are being determined in the Middle-East, most of the Asian countries and Europe are in an economic downturn. Although the market indices have been in a temporary rebound, investment reserves will be mostly sidelined until the bottom of this correction is proven. The current (USA) rebound has higher levels to attain but resistance and volatility begins at (S&P 500) 1170 to 1200. Eventually, the current advance and the nearing test of resistance are likely to be followed by retesting the September low point.

This week, we roll our focus out of the (Dec.) and into the (March) Bond contract. Last week the (March) T-bond attempted to rally and then fell back into a critical level, as described in Plazaview. By the end of the week, the (March) Bond closed lower, at 102.13/32. This week begins with the Bond indicating that more selling is the market trend. Caution will note that the Bond has fallen steeply, during the past three weeks and a temporary rebound has increasing potential. A nearby and lower (March) target is waiting at 100.14/32.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond recovered again last week, from its low of two weeks' prior. It moved back up but was limited within its range as described in Plazaview, ending (+.066%) higher for the week, at 5.30%. The rate is still in a down trend but if the Bond does not rally above last week's closing level, the yield rate will break out and move higher. The same as last week, this is a potentially critical week for the direction of the Bond and the yield rate.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index was moved higher and hit the upper target (117.18) as forecast in Plazaview; it closed up last week, at 117.33. As described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a (one year), top forming pattern since early October of last year. In July, the Dollar established its top and since then, it has been gradually moving to lower levels. This week, the Dollar remains in a primarily downward correction phase but the dollar is now testing resistance. The Dollar begins this week, still trading in a range. The upper target has been breached at 117.18 and the market is poised for another advance. The lower target is 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index turned up and finished higher, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. At last Friday's close, the CRB index settled up, at 190.12. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago and as forecast in Plazaview, it is now due for a temporary rebound. The index is testing the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually continue moving lower but for now, a temporary rise is likely to further develop.

This week, we roll out of the (Dec.) energy markets and into the (March) delivery contracts.

Crude oil (NY) bubbled up last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The (March.) CO settled higher last week, closing at $19.33. CO is at the lower end of a potentially volatile trading range. OPEC's market influence and $25. target price has been depressed by formerly cash starved, Russian supply. This week, although CO remains in a long and downward trend, it is now due for a continued rebound. The (March) CO has higher targets, waiting at $20.22, $21.66, $22.48 and a more distant $25.79. Further selling will be excessive this week but a lower target is within range, at $18.88.

The NY gasoline market rebounded last week, as forecast in Plazaview. HU (March) closed higher last week, at (Dec.) $.5524. This week, HU remains in a long, downward trend but it is now due for a temporary rebound. A corrective rally will be reaching higher, for targets at $.5656, $.6088, $.6386, and $.7221. Further selling will be excessive this week but a lower target is within range, at $.537.

The NY heating oil market rebounded last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The (March) HO closed higher, at $.5445. This week, HO remains in a downward trend but it is now due for a continued rebound. The HO market price has been depressed by supply and relatively warm weather but price may soon be moved by increased user demand, matching with the late arriving cold of winter weather. Higher targets are at $.5683, $.6035, $.6255 and $.7124. Further selling will be excessive this week but a lower target is range, at $.5337.

The NY natural gas market resumed its rebound as traders were more inclined to the buy side and hitting the target ($2.79), as forecast in Plazaview. The (March) contract settled higher, last week, at $3.005. NG continues to lead the other energy markets. Last week's advance was potentially underdeveloped and it may take another week or more to establish a better upward trend. As cold winter weather has been delayed, it is now approaching and buyers will take greater interest. The (March) contract will move up, to targets of $3.102 and $3.323. A pull back will introduce a better base and buying opportunity, if it occurs this week.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 12-3-2001 (S&P starts at 1139.45)

Last week the U.S. stock markets continued a cautious advance but retreated by the end of the week. The S&P 500 closed lower, at 1139.45. The Dow Ind. 30 closed lower for the week, at 9851.56. For this year, the S&P 500 was partially recovered from its lowest point of September 21, but down by (-13.70%).

The U.S.A.'s stock market indices are moving through a correction phase, which began in March of 2000 and the September of 2001 low is the current bottom but not yet final. The long term trend remains upward and the immediate trend has been in a rebounding cycle from its formerly oversold correction phase and September low. The equity markets in the USA and the world are in a defensive, watchful demeanor. While unsettled political and terrorist' military issues are being determined in the Middle-East, Asia and Europe remain in an economic downturn. Although the market indices have been in a temporary rebound, investment reserves will be mostly sidelined until the bottom of this correction is proven. The current (USA) rebound has higher levels to attain but resistance and volatility begins at (S&P 500) 1170 to 1200. Eventually, the current rebound and the nearing test of resistance are likely to be followed by retesting the recent lows of September.

Last week the (March) T-bond rebounded as forecast in Plazaview. By the end of the week, the (March) Bond closed (+ 1.9/32) higher, at 103.22/32. This week begins with the Bond still in a downward trend but traders may note that the Bond has recently fallen too sharply and a temporary rebound has potential. A nearby and lower (March) target is waiting at 100.14/32.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond backed down last week, failing to rise above critical resistance as described in Plazaview. It remained in its longer term, down trend, ending (-.035%) lower for the week, at 5.265%. This week, the rate is still in a down trend and will remain there unless the T-bond falls sharply.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index backed down from its recent advance and it closed down, at 115.46. As described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a (one year), top forming pattern since early October of last year. In July, the Dollar established its top and since then, it has been gradually trending downward. This week, the Dollar remains in a primarily downward correction phase but the dollar is holding midway of a sideways pattern. The Dollar begins this week, still trading in a range. The upper resistance target has already been breached at 117.18 and the market is poised for another attempt to advance. The lower target is 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index continued to rebound and finished higher, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. At last Friday's close, the CRB index settled up, at 192.66. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago and as forecast in Plazaview, it is now in a temporary rebound. The index has tested the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to retest the recent lows but for now, a temporary rise is likely to progress.

Crude oil (NY-March) ranged $20. - $18.80 and moved into a sideways holding pattern last week. As forecast in Plazaview, further selling would be excessive and the contract bounced off the ($18.88) low target. The (March.) CO closed higher (+$0.51) last week, closing at $19.84. CO is at the lower end of a potentially volatile trading range. This week, although CO remains in a downward trend, it is now due for a continued rebound. The (March) CO has higher targets, waiting at $20.22, $21.97, $22.48 and a more distant $25.79. Further selling will be excessive this week and an advance is more likely.

The NY (March) gasoline market traded in a sideways range ($.5675 - $.5415) last week, as forecast in Plazaview. HU (March) hit the first upper target ($.5656) as forecast and closed higher last week, at (March) $.5607. This week, HU remains in a downward trend but it is now due for a temporary rebound. A rally will be reaching higher, for targets at $.6088, $.6386, and $.7221. Further selling will be excessive this week but a lower target is in range, at $.5370.

The NY (March) heating oil market traded in a sideways range ($.5585 - $.5310) last week and hit the lower target ($.5337) as forecast in Plazaview. The (March) HO closed higher, at $.5514. This week, HO remains in a downward trend but it is now likely to continue the current advance. The HO market price has been depressed by supply and relatively warm weather but price may be suddenly moved higher by increased user demand, matching with the late arriving cold of winter weather. Higher targets are at $.5683, $.6035, $.6255 and $.7124. Further selling will be excessive this week.

The NY (March) natural gas market was volatile, ranging ($3.13 - $2.65) last week and hitting the upper target ($3.102) as forecast in Plazaview. The (March) contract settled (-$.2060) lower last week, at $2.799. NG is leading the other energy markets in price direction. The current trend is embryonic and it may take another week or more to establish an upward trend. As cold winter weather has been delayed, it is approaching and buyers will take greater interest. In a rally, the (March) contract will move to targets beginning at $3.323 and higher. A pull back to at least $2.682 will result in an improved base of price support.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 12-10-2001 (S&P starts at 1158.31)

Last week the U.S. stock markets continued to advance, reached the first point of resistance by midweek and then retreated from there, all as forecast in Plazaview. The S&P 500 moved to a resistance high point of 1173.62 and closed at 1158.31. The Dow Ind. 30 closed higher for the week, at 10,049.46. For this year, the S&P 500 was recovered from its lowest point of September 21, but down by (-12.27%).

The U.S.A.'s stock market indices are rebounding from the lowest point of a correction phase, which began in March of 2000. The September of 2001 low is the current bottom it is but not yet conclusive. The long term trend remains upward and the immediate trend is in a rebounding cycle from its formerly oversold correction phase and September low. The equity markets in the USA and the world are in a defensive, watchful demeanor. Unsettled political and terrorist' military issues are ongoing in the Middle-East, while Asia and Europe remain in an economic downturn. Although the market indices have been in a rebound since September, most investment reserves will be sidelined until the bottom of this correction is proven. This week, the current (USA) rebound is at a point of resistance but as the markets are in an end of year buying adventure, higher levels may be attained. Resistance and market volatility begins at (S&P 500) 1170 to 1200. With more time, the current rebound and test of the resistance levels will likely be followed by retesting the September low point.

Last week the (March) T-bond was unusually volatile, trading between 105.6 and 99.13, as the yield rate alternated between retreat and break out of critical resistance as previously described in Plazaview. By the end of the week, the (March) Bond closed lower, at 99.15, hitting the waiting target of 100.14/32 as forecast in Plazaview. This week begins with the Bond still in a downward trend and a nearby target waiting at 99. While the T-Bond has not found a bottom, it is due to rally after testing at least the 99 (March) target and possibly lower. Traders will note that the Bond has recently fallen too sharply and a temporary rebound has increasing potential.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond was volatile last week but eventually broke out of its downward trading range and resistance as described in Plazaview. The yield rate ended (+.332%) higher for the week, at 5.597%. This week, the rate has not found a new uptrend and may test higher but this will be temporary and as it will eventually turn down as the T-bond is more inclined to rally soon, rather than fall too much further.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index remained in a narrow range of a sideways direction as forecast in Plazaview. The Dollar closed a little higher, at 116.10. As described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a (one year), top forming pattern since early October of last year. In July, the Dollar established its top and since then, it has been gradually trending downward. This week, the Dollar remains in a primarily downward correction phase but the dollar is holding midway of a sideways pattern. The Dollar begins this week, still trading in its range. While the upper resistance target has been breached at 117.18, the market is poised for another attempt to advance to the next point of resistance, around 118. The lower target is 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index remained in a narrow range and finished lower by the end of last week. At last Friday's close, the CRB index closed down, at 189.57. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago and as forecast in Plazaview, it is now in a temporary rebound. The index has tested the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to retest the recent lows but for now, a temporary rise is likely to resume.

Crude oil (NY-March) ranged between ($20.83 and $18.65), hitting the first target ($20.22) as forecast in Plazaview. The (March) CO closed almost unchanged, only ($-0.11) lower, last week, at $19.73. CO is at the lower end of a still volatile trading range. This week, although CO remains in a downward trend, it is now due for a continued rebound. The (March) CO has higher targets, waiting at $21.97, $22.48 and a more distant $25.79. Further selling will be excessive this week and an advance or sideways movement is more likely.

The NY (March) gasoline market traded in an outside range ($.587 to $.533) last week, hitting the ($.537) target as forecast in Plazaview. Still in a rebounding trend, HU (March) closed marginally lower (-$0.0067) last week, at (March) $.554. This week, HU remains in a longer term, downward trend but it is now due for a continued rebound. A rally will be reaching higher, for targets at $.6088, $.6386, and $.7221. Further selling will be excessive this week and a narrow advance or sideways movement is more likely.

The NY (March) heating oil market traded in an outside range ($.572 to $.514) last week and hit the first target ($.5683) as forecast in Plazaview. The (March) HO closed marginally lower
(-$0.0139) at $.5375. This week, HO remains in a longer term, downward trend but it is now likely to continue the current rebound. The HO market price has been depressed by supply and several weeks of unusually warm weather. Price may be suddenly moved higher by increased user demand, matching with the late arriving cold of winter weather. Higher targets are at $.6035, $.6255 and $.7124. There is overhead resistance nearby but further selling will be excessive this week and a breakout rally or sideways movement has potential.

The NY (March) natural gas market was relatively quiet last week in comparison with the other energy markets. NG for (March) had a very narrow range ($2.79 to $2.60) last week but hit the pull back target ($2.682) as forecast in Plazaview. The (March) contract settled (-$.1060) lower, last week, at $2.693. NG is leading the other energy markets in price direction and they are all poised for a rebound. The current reversal and potential for an upward trend are embryonic and it may take another week or more to establish an upward trend. As cold winter weather has been delayed, it is approaching and buyers will then take greater interest. In a rally, the (March) contract will move to targets beginning at $3.323 and higher. There is overhead resistance nearby and this week may bring a pivotal, upward turn or continue in a holding pattern.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 12-17-2001 (S&P starts at 1123.07)

Last week the U.S. stock markets continued to retreat from the first point of resistance, encountered two weeks ago, as forecast in Plazaview. In an up and down market last week, the S&P 500 closed down, at 1123.07. The Dow Ind. 30 closed lower for the week, at 9811.15. For this year, the S&P 500 was recovered from its lowest point of September, but down (-14.94%).

The U.S.A.'s stock market indices have rebounded from September's low point of a correction phase, which began in March of 2000. The September of 2001 low is the current bottom it is but not yet conclusive. The long term trend remains upward but the immediate, recovery trend has little support. Although the market indices have been in a recovery advance since September, most investment reserves will be sidelined until the bottom of this correction is proven. This week, the current stock market rebound is near a point of resistance but year end buying may bring volatility from buyers and sellers, who are looking for direction. Resistance and increased volatility begin at (S&P 500) 1170 to 1200. With more time, the current rebound and test of the resistance levels will be followed by a test of the September low.

Last week the (March) T-bond held its ground from the prior week's decline. It remained in a range of stability (102.4 to 99.16). As forecast in Plazaview, the (March) Bond closed higher, at 99.23. This week begins with the Bond still in a downward trend, with a nearby target waiting at 99. While the T-Bond has not found a bottom, it is due to rally soon, after trading briefly trading lower, to at least the 99 (March) target. The Bond has recently fallen too sharply and a temporary rebound has increasing potential.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond gave back some of its recent advance last week. The yield rate ended (-.029%) lower for the week, at 5.568%. This week, the rate has not found any new uptrend and may probe higher but this will be temporary and as it will eventually be turned back down as the (T-bond) is increasingly more inclined to rise.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index remained in a narrow range of a sideways direction as forecast in Plazaview. The Dollar closed a little higher, at 116.10. As described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a (one year), top forming pattern since early October of last year. In July, the Dollar established its top and since then, it has been gradually trending downward. This week, the Dollar remains in a primarily downward correction phase but the dollar is holding midway of a sideways pattern. The Dollar begins this week, still trading in its range. While the upper resistance target has been breached at 117.18, the market is poised for another attempt to advance to the next point of resistance, around 118. The lower target is 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index remained in a narrow range and as forecast in Plazaview, it finished higher by the end of last week. At last Friday's close, the CRB index closed up, at 191.07. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago and as forecast in Plazaview, it is now in a temporary rebound. The index has tested the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually retest the recent lows but for now, a temporary rise is likely to develop.

Crude oil (NY-March) ranged between ($19.72 and $18.45), trading in a sideways direction as forecast in Plazaview. The (March) CO closed nearly unchanged, only ($-0.05) lower, last week, at $19.68. CO is at the lower end of a still volatile trading range. This week, although CO remains in a downward trend, it is bottom testing and a continued rebound is likely to develop. The (March) CO has higher targets, waiting at $21.97, $22.48 and a more distant $25.79. As there is no uptrend, further selling has potential but it will be temporary this week, a lower target waits at $18.77.

The NY (March) gasoline market traded in an inside range ($.573 to $.53) last week, moving higher, as forecast in Plazaview. In a rebounding trend, HU (March) closed up (+$0.0174) last week, at (March) $.5714. This week, HU remains within a downward trend but the recent advance has potential to continue. Another rally will be reaching for targets at $.6088, $.6386, and $.7221. Short of a follow-through rally, the market has a lower target, waiting at $.5265.

The NY (March) heating oil market was mostly down last week but on Friday, it continued the rebound as forecast in Plazaview. After floating in a sideways pattern all week, it traded up in an inside range ($.556 to $.517) last week. The (March) HO closed higher (-$0.017) at $.5545. This week, HO remains in a longer term, downward trend but it is now likely to continue the current rebound. The HO market price has been depressed by supply and several weeks of unusually warm weather. Price will be suddenly moved higher by the late arriving cold of winter weather. Higher targets are at $.6035, $.6255 and $.7124. A resumed mild weather pattern will bring risks of nearby overhead resistance and a lower target is waiting at $.5265.

The NY (March) natural gas market continued its leading advance last week, in comparison with the other energy markets. NG for (March) was in a narrow range for most of last week ($2.91 to $2.745) but it advanced on Friday. It settled (+$.209) higher, last week, at $2.902. As forecast in Plazaview, all the energy markets have been poised for a rebound. These current rallies are embryonic trend developments and NG is only relatively more developed. Although the fundamental impact of cold winter weather has been delayed, it is now approaching and buyers will take greater interest. In a continued rally, the (March) contract will move to targets beginning at $3.323 and higher. A resumption of the unusually mild weather pattern will bring the buyers' risk of a waiting lower target at $2.693.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Happy holidays!

Plazaview.com forecasts will resume for the week of 1/7/02.