Plazaview.com

 Forecast Records - 3rd Qtr. of 2004

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-5-2004
Forecast Records - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Commodity Indices - Goldman Sachs and CRB: GI- and CR-

By the end of last week, the 10yr. T-note’s yield rate continued to close lower, at 4.458%. The T-bond’s yield rate also continued to close lower for the week, at 5.207%.

This week, as previously forecast, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are in the June ‘03 rising trend but they have become too advanced and should continue to gradually correct by moving lower. However, recent weeks may have been enough to cause a temporary rebound. Such a rebound could bring the T-note up to 4.695% or 4.87%; the Bond could rebound up to 5.529%. Ultimately, the Note may go down to 4.2% or 3.739%; and, the Bond will eventually correct down to 4.972% or 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed the week $.89 higher, at $83.65. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed the week $1.22 higher, at $84.35.

The IEF and the TLT have been building a base to rally, as has now begun to occur. There may be some interim selling along the way. The IEF could back down to 82.94 or 81.25; and, the TLT could back down to 83.47 or 80.83. Otherwise, the IEF is headed back up to 85.20 or 87.55; and, TLT seems poised to rise, up to 86.05 or 89.55.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (cash index) closed (+) 59/32 higher for the week at 102-14/32.

The T-bond appears to have ended the March to May decline. Since May ‘04, the Bond has built a base of support and is now rising above the area of 97-16/32 to 98-11/32. It is likely to continue the rise, back to the former range of 106 to 112.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed (-) $.51 down for the week, at $36.82.

Since mid-May, the QQQ has been in a minor rising trend. For the current trend to remain viable, it must continue the advance and break above $38.60. From last week’s lower close, it should resume the current rise, toward 37.74. Otherwise, if buyers are not in force, there is risk of moving back down, to 34.42.

The Goldman Sachs commodity index (GI) and the CRB index have been in a rising trend since January ‘02. Last week, the GI closed up for the week, at 293.21 and CRB closed down, at 268.23. The more advanced GI needs to correct down or move sideways over time. Recently, these comparable indices have corrected, downward and narrowed their spread. The GI is more extended and has greater downward potential of these expanded commodity indices.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-12-2004
Forecast Records - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Commodity Indices - Goldman Sachs and CRB: GI- and CR-

By the end of last week, the 10yr. T-note’s yield rate remained in a narrow range, closing marginally higher, at 4.466%. The T-bond’s yield rate also remained in its prior week’s range, closing slightly higher for the week, at 5.216%.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond remain in the June ‘03 rising trend but they have also been correcting an interim, over-bought condition since June of this year, by gradually moving lower. A temporary rebound could bring the T-note up to 4.695% or 4.87%; the Bond could also rebound, up to 5.529%. Ultimately, the Note may sink to 4.2% or 3.739%; and, the Bond will eventually correct down to 4.972% or 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed the week only $.03 higher, at $83.68. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed the week only $.03 higher, at $84.38.

The IEF and the TLT are primarily in a falling trend. They became increasingly oversold and since mid-June, have been rebounding. The rebound has paused and seems vulnerable to sellers. If that rebounding trend fails, the IEF is likely to move back down to 82.94 or 81.25; and, the TLT could back down to 83.47 or 80.83. Otherwise, the IEF will continue trending up, to 85.20 or 87.05; and, TLT is trending up, to 85.74, 86.05 or 89.55.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (cash index) closed nearly unchanged (-) 2/32 lower for the week at 102-12/32.

The T-bond appears to have ended the March to May decline. Since May ‘04, the Bond has built a base of support and risen above a base of 97-16/32 to 98-11/32. It is likely to continue the rise toward 106 to 112. More immediately, a minor pull-back is probably developing.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed (-) $1.07 lower for the week, at $35.75.

Since October of 2002, the QQQ has been primarily in a rising trend. Since Jan of this year, the QQQ has been correcting downward. The May to June rally appears now to be moving sideways. For the sideways movement to end, the QQQ must continue the May - June advance and break above $38.60. There is risk of drifting down, at least to 34.42.

The Goldman Sachs commodity index (GI) and the CRB index have been in a rising trend since January ‘02. Last week, the GI closed up for the week, at 298.56 and CRB closed up, at 272.69. The GI is too extended; to correct, it will either move downward or move sideways over time. Recently, the CRB has corrected itself but in time, these comparable indices will narrow their spread. The GI is more extended and has the greater downward potential in a correction.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-19-2004
Forecast Records - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Commodity Indices - Goldman Sachs and CRB: GI- and CR-

By the end of last week, the 10 year T-note’s yield rate dropped on Friday morning’s news of the (low inflation) Consumer Price Index report, causing bonds to rise and rates to fall. The 10-year Note closed down, at 4.361%. The T-bond’s yield rate also dropped, closing the week at 5.123%.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are moving down in a correction but there is risk of a rebound, soon. A temporary rebound could bring the T-note up to 4.695% or 4.87%; the Bond could also rebound, up to 5.529%. Ultimately, the Note is likely to sink back down, to 4.2% or 3.739. The Bond will eventually correct down to 4.972% or 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed the week $.65 higher, at $84.33. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed the week $1.11 higher, at $85.49. Friday’s CPI report of low inflation, caused buyers of Bonds and Notes to force prices suddenly higher.

The IEF and the TLT are primarily in a falling trend but since mid-June, they have rebounded from an oversold level. The rebound has become an upward trend but it appears still vulnerable to sellers. If the rebounding trend fails, the IEF is likely to move back down to 82.94 or 81.25 and the TLT could fall to 83.47 or 80.83. Otherwise, the IEF is trending higher, toward 85.20 and 87.05; TLT is trending higher, toward 85.74, 86.05 and 89.55.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed (-) $1.08 lower, at $34.67, matching the prior week’s decline for the week.

Since October of 2002, the QQQ has been primarily in a rising trend. In a turn since January of this year, the QQQ has been correcting downward. Since the end of June, the QQQ has moved into another more aggressively declining trend. As forecast, there is risk of drifting further down, to 34.42 and lower. While the sharp decline is in place, it is becoming oversold and a minor rebound is due.

The Goldman Sachs commodity index (GI) and the CRB index have been in a rising trend since January ‘02. Last week, the GI closed up for the week, at 299.77 and CRB closed down, at 272.30. The GI is more extended and to correct, it will either move downward or move sideways over time. Recently, the CRB has corrected itself but in time, these comparable indices will narrow their spread. The GI has the greater downward potential in a correction.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-2-2004
Forecast Archive - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year, TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ; and S&P 500, SPY

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note closed at 4.475%. The yield rate of the T-bond’s closed last week at 5.205%.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are in a falling correction. The Note has been moving lower since June, when it was at 4.791%. The Bond has been moving lower since May, when it was at 5.503%. Both remain in a longer term, rising trend which originated in June of 2003. But, the rates have potential to sink back down, to 4.2% or 3.739% for the Note and the Bond may eventually correct down to 4.972% or 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed the week at $83.78. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed the week at $84.59.

The IEF and the TLT have been in a minor, rising trend. Since June, when it was at 81.70, the IEF has been rising. Since May, when it was at 81.31, the TLT has been rising. Meanwhile, both have been in a primarily falling trend since June of 2003, when the IEF was at 90.63 and the TLT was at 97.18. The current rise appears unlikely to be sustained. If the minor trend fails, the IEF is likely to move back down to 82.94 or 81.25 and the TLT would fall to 83.47 or 80.83. Otherwise, the IEF is advancing toward 85.20 and 87.05; TLT is rising toward 85.74, 86.05 and 89.55.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed at 34.89 for the week.

Since October of 2002, when is was at 20.35, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. Since January of this year, when it was at 38.57, the QQQ has been falling and moving sideways. It is in a holding pattern of upward potential, matched by a downward trend.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed last week at 110.84.

The SPY has been in a rising trend since October of 2002, when it was at 80.80. It has been falling since March, when it was at 116.38. It is in a holding pattern, of upward potential, matched by a downward trend.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-9-2004
Forecast Archive - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year, TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ; and S&P 500, SPY

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note closed down, at 4.475%. The yield rate of the T-bond closed down last week, at 5.035%.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond remain in a falling correction trend. The Note has been moving lower since June, when it was at 4.791%. The Bond has been moving lower since May, when it was at 5.503%. Both remain in a longer term, rising trend which originated in June of 2003. But, the rates had become too advanced and there is potential to sink lower, to 4.2% or 3.739% for the Note; the Bond may eventually correct down to 4.972% or 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed up for the week, at $85.14. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed up for the week at $86.42.

The IEF and the TLT are in a secondary, rising trend. Since June, when it was at 81.70, the IEF has rebounded. Since May, when it was at 81.31, the TLT has rebounded. The IEF is advancing toward 87.05 and TLT is rising toward 89.55. Meanwhile, both are rising in a longer term, falling trend. That falling trend started in June of 2003, when the IEF was at 90.63 and the TLT was at 97.18. The current rise appears to be only temporary, a rebounding correction. When this secondary trend is complete, the IEF is likely to move back down to 82.94 or 81.25. The TLT would fall to 83.47 or 80.83.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed down, at 32.72 for the week.

Since October of 2002, when is was at 20.35, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. Beginning in January of this year, when it was at 38.57, the QQQ has been falling and moving sideways. It is in a primarily upward trend but currently matched by the downward trend of a correction.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed down, last week, at 106.85.

The SPY has been in a rising trend since October of 2002, when it was at 80.80. It has been falling since March, when it was at 116.38. It is in a longer term, upward trend but currently matched by a downward trending correction.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-16-2004
Forecast Archive - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year, TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ; and S&P 500, SPY

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note closed further down, at 3.903%. The yield rate of the T-bond also closed further down last week, at 5.007. Both have nearly reached the targets forecast in Plazaview.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond remain in a falling correction. The Note has been moving lower since is was at 4.791 in June of this year. The Bond has been moving lower since May, when it was at 5.503%. Both are still in a longer term, rising trend which originated in June of 2003. But, the rates became too advanced and they are gradually declining as forecast in Plazaview, to 3.739% for the Note; the Bond is backing down to 4.972% or 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed slightly (-$0.08) down for the week, at $85.06. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed slightly (+$.18) up for the week at $86.64.

The IEF and the TLT are in a secondary, rising trend. Since June, when it was at 81.70, the IEF has been rising and since May, when it was at 81.31, the TLT has been rising. The IEF is advancing toward 87.05 and TLT is rising toward 89.55.
Meanwhile, both are in a longer term, (falling) trend. That falling trend started in June of 2003, when the IEF was at 90.63 and the TLT was at 97.18. The current rise is only a correction rebound. Both are near resistance of the down trend and may turn downward by the end of this week. Eventually, the IEF is likely to move back down to 82.94 or 81.25; the TLT will fall back to 83.47 or 80.83.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed slightly down (-$0.20), at 32.52 for the week.

Since October of 2002, when is was at 20.35, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. Since January of this year, when it was at 38.57, the QQQ has been falling and moving sideways. It is in a primarily upward trend but moving lower in a still active correction.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed slightly (+$0.34) higher, last week, at 107.19.

The SPY has been in a rising trend since October of 2002, when it was at 80.80. It has been falling since March, when it was at 116.38. It is in a longer term, upward trend but currently dropping in a correcting trend, which may find support around 104., this week.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-23-2004
Forecast Archive - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year, TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ; and S&P 500, SPY

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note closed up, at 4.231%. The yield rate of the T-bond also closed up, last week, at 5.029. Both have nearly reached the lower targets, forecast in Plazaview. A rebound was last week’s result.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond remain in a falling correction. The Note has been moving lower since is was at 4.791 in June of this year. The Bond has been moving lower since May, when it was at 5.503%. Both are still in a longer term, rising trend which originated in June of 2003. But, the rates became too advanced and they are now correcting downward as forecast in Plazaview, to 3.739% for the Note; the Bond is backing down to 4.972% or 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed slightly (+$0.07) up for the week, at $85.13. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed slightly (-$.10) down for the week at $86.54.

The IEF and the TLT are in a secondary, rising correction. Since June, when it was at 81.70, the IEF has been rebounding and since May, when it was at 81.31, the TLT has also been rising. The IEF is advancing toward 87.05 and TLT is rising toward 89.55. Meanwhile, both are primarily in a longer term, (falling) trend. That falling trend started in June of 2003, when the IEF was at 90.63 and the TLT was at 97.18. The current rise is only a correction, a rebound. Both are near resistance of the down trend and may soon turn downward. Eventually, the IEF is likely to move back down to 82.94 or 81.25; the TLT will fall back to 83.47 or 80.83.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed up (+$1.49), at 34.01 for the week.

Since October of 2002, when is was at 20.35, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. Since January of this year, when it was at 38.57, the QQQ has been falling and moving sideways. It is in a primarily upward trend, which found support last week, but moving lower in the still active, falling correction.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed up (+$3.65) higher, last week, at 110.84.

The SPY has been in a rising trend since October of 2002, when it was at 80.80. It has been in a falling correction since March, when it was at 116.38. It is still in that longer term, upward trend but currently dropping in the correcting trend, which found temporary support last week.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-30-2004
Forecast Archive - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year, TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ; and S&P 500, SPY

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note closed marginally lower, at 4.227%. The yield rate of the T-bond also closed marginally down last week, at 5.018%. Both have nearly reached the lower targets, forecast in Plazaview. Last week was a third week of consolidation.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond remain in a falling correction. The Note has been moving lower since is was at 4.791 in June of this year. The Bond has been moving lower since May, when it was at 5.503%. Both are still in a longer term, rising trend which originated in June of 2003. But, the rates became too advanced and they are now correcting downward as forecast in Plazaview, to 3.739% for the Note; the Bond is backing down to 4.972% or 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed marginally higher (+$0.07) for the week, at $85.20. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed higher (+$0.28) for the week at $86.82.

The IEF and the TLT are in a secondary, rising correction. Since June, when it was at $81.70, the IEF has been in a rebound; since May, when it was at $81.31, the TLT has also been rising. The IEF is advancing toward 87.05 and TLT is rising toward 89.55. Meanwhile, both are primarily in a longer term, (falling) trend. That falling trend started in June of 2003, when the IEF was at 90.63 and the TLT was at 97.18. The current rise is a correcting rebound. Both are at or near resistance of the down trend and could soon turn downward. Eventually, the IEF could move down to 82.94 or 81.25; the TLT may fall back to 83.47 or 80.83.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed up (+$.55), at 34.56 for the week.

Since October of 2002, when is was at $20.35, the QQQ has been in a rising trend which became overbought. Since January of this year, when it was at 38.57, the QQQ has been correcting, gradually downward. It is primarily in an upward trend, moving lower to correct and overbought market.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed (+$.59) higher last week, at 111.45.

The SPY has been in a rising trend since October of 2002, when it was at 80.80. It has been falling gradually lower in a correction, since March, when it was at 116.38. It is still in that longer term, upward trend but still falling in the correcting trend.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-06-2004
Forecast Archive - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year, TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ; and S&P 500, SPY

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note closed higher, at 4.293%. The yield rate of the T-bond also closed higher last week, at 5.061%. Both have nearly reached the lower targets, forecast in Plazaview.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond remain in a temporarily falling correction. The Note has been moving lower since is was at 4.791 in June of this year; the Bond has correcting downward since late May, when it was at 5.503%. Both are still primarily in a longer term, rising trend which originated in June of 2003. The rates had been too advanced and they still may correct downward as forecast in Plazaview, to 3.739% for the Note; the Bond is backing down to 4.972% or 4.689%. But, they have now reached a new potential to breakout of the correction trend and rise. This week’s action is likely to be more volatile.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed lower (-$0.30) for the week, at $84.90. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed lower (-$0.16) for the week at $86.66.

The IEF and the TLT remain in a secondary, rebounding correction. Since June, when it was at $81.70, the IEF has been in a rebound; since late May, when it was at $81.31, the TLT has also been rising. The IEF is advancing toward 87.05 and TLT is rising toward 89.55. Meanwhile, both are primarily in a longer term, (falling) trend. That falling trend started in June of 2003, when the IEF was at 90.63 and the TLT was at 97.18. The current rise is a correcting rebound, too steep to remain viable. Both are at or near resistance of the down trend and could soon turn downward. Eventually, the IEF could move down to 82.94 or 81.25; the TLT may fall back to 83.47 or 80.83.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed down (-$.42), at 34.14 for the week.

Since October of 2002, when is was at $20.35, the QQQ has been in a rising trend which became overbought. Since January of this year, when it was at 38.57, the QQQ has been correcting, gradually downward. It is primarily in an upward trend, correcting an overbought market, moving gradually lower, as if marking time.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed (+$.67) higher last week, at 112.12.

The SPY has been in a rising trend since October of 2002, when it was at 80.80. It has been falling gradually lower in a correction, since March, when it was at 116.38. It is still in that longer term, upward trend but correcting lower, not significantly, as if marking time.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-13-2004
Forecast Archive - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year, TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ; and S&P 500, SPY

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note closed lower, at 4.18%. The yield rate of the T-bond also closed lower last week, at 4.971%.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond remain static for the past several weeks but in a temporarily falling correction. The Note has been moving lower since is was at 4.791 in June of this year; the Bond has correcting downward since late May, when it was at 5.503%. Both are still primarily in a longer term, rising trend which originated in June of 2003. These rates may still correct lower as forecast in Plazaview, to 3.739% for the Note and the Bond, down to 4.972% or 4.689%. But, they are now at a breakout point of both trends converging. This week’s action is likely to be volatile.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed higher (+$0.56) for the week, at $85.46. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed higher (+$0.44) for the week at $87.10.

The IEF and the TLT remain in a secondary, rebounding correction. Since June, when it was at $81.70, the IEF has been rising and since late May, when it was at $81.31, the TLT has also been rising. The IEF is advancing toward 87.05 and TLT is rising toward 89.55. However, both are primarily in a longer term, (falling) trend. That falling trend started in June of 2003, when the IEF was at 90.63 and the TLT was at 97.18. The current rise is a correcting rebound which still has some potential. Eventually, the current rebound will rest and the IEF could move down to 82.94 or 81.25; the TLT may fall back to 83.47 or 80.83.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed up (+$.98), at 35.12 for the week.

Since October of 2002, when is was at $20.35, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. Since January of this year, when it was at 38.57, the QQQ has been correcting sideways in a downward trend. It is primarily in an upward trend, cautiously marking time in a defensive market environment.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed (+$.94) higher last week, at 113.06.

The SPY has been in a rising trend since October of 2002, when it was at 80.80. It is still in the longer term, upward trend, which resumed during the first week of August.

Markets are indicating the sentiment is defensive, with greater buying of Notes, Bonds, and "Blue Chip" stocks.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-20-2004
Forecast Archive - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year, TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ; and S&P 500, SPY

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note closed lower, at 4.127%. The yield rate of the T-bond also closed lower last week, at 4.917%.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are moving lower, breaking through and below support of the rising trend. The Note has been moving lower since is was at 4.791 in June of this year; the Bond has correcting downward since late May, when it was at 5.503%. Both are still primarily in a longer term, rising trend which originated in June of 2003. These rates may still correct lower as forecast over a year ago in Plazaview, to 3.739% for the Note and the Bond, down to 4.972% or 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed higher (+$0.31) for the week, at $85.77. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed higher (+$0.82) for the week at $87.92.

The IEF is rising in what is still a temporary correction, with overhead resistance of the falling trend yet to overcome. The TLT has broken above resistance of the down trend is now rising with higher potential. Since June, when it was at 81.70, the IEF has been rising. Since late May, when TLT was at $81.31, it has also been rising. The IEF is advancing toward 87.05 and TLT is rising toward 89.55. However, both are primarily in a longer term, (falling) trend. That falling trend started in June of 2003, when the IEF was at 90.63 and the TLT was at 97.18. The current rise is a correcting rebound which still has some potential. Eventually, the current rebound will rest and the IEF could move down to 82.94 or 81.25; the TLT may then fall back to $85, $83.60, and $80.83.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed up (+$.31), at 35.43 for the week.

Since October of 2002, when is was at $20.35, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. But, since January of this year, when it was at 38.57, the QQQ has been correcting sideways, with a downward trend. It is primarily in an upward trend, cautiously marking time in a defensive market environment. The rally of the past five weeks has been within a downward trend, more of a correcting rebound.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed (+$.09) higher last week, at 113.15.

The SPY has been in a rising trend since October of 2002, when it was at 80.80. It is still in the longer term, upward trend, which resumed during the first week of August. The past two weeks’ rally has brought the market above and out of the correcting trend. This breakout is not yet a trend but has bullish implications.

Last week’s market results indicate defensive sentiment, greater buying of T-bonds and "Blue Chip" stocks.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-27-2004
Forecast Archive - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year, TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ; and S&P 500, SPY

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note closed lower, at 4.031%. The yield rate of the T-bond also closed lower last week, at 4.80%.

This week, rates are due for a slowing of the decline or a temporary rebound. The yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond have both moved lower as forecast, breaking through and below support of the rising trend. The Note has been moving lower since is was at 4.791% in June of this year and the Bond has corrected downward since late May, when it was at 5.503%. These rates still have potential to correct lower, as forecast over a year ago in Plazaview, to 3.739% for the Note and the Bond, down to 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed higher (+$0.59) for the week, at $86.36. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed higher (+$1.51) for the week at $89.43.

The IEF and the TLT have been rebounding in a correction, which is developing into a rising trend. Since June, when it was at $81.70, the IEF has been rising. Since late May, when TLT was at $81.31, it has also been rising. The IEF is advancing toward $87.05 and TLT is rising toward $89.55. However, both are indicating diminished buying pressure. Eventually, the current rebound will rest and the IEF could fall back down to $82.94 or $81.25; the TLT may then fall back to $85, $83.60, and $80.83.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed down (-$.63), at 34.80 for the week.

Since October of 2002, when is was at $20.35, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. But, since January of this year, when it was at 38.57, the QQQ has been drifting sideways, with a downward trend. It is still in a longer term, upward trend, cautiously marking time in a defensive market environment.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed (-$1.46) lower, last week, at 111.46.

The SPY has been in a rising trend since October of 2002, when it was at 80.80. It is still in the longer term, upward trend, which resumed during the first week of August. The market is currently drifting sideways, with a downward trend.

Last week’s market results indicate defensive sentiment, greater buying of T-bonds and "Blue Chip" stocks.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

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