Plazaview.com Library 3rd Qtr. 2003

Plazaview.com

Forecast Records - 3rd Qtr. of 2003

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-7-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins higher at 3.655% and S&P 500 starts higher at 985.70)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note continued the prior week's upturn, from a 3.074% multi-year low. It ranged from 3.459% to 3.66%, closing up for the week, at 3.655%. As described in Plazaview, the rate had momentum to continue higher, as it did.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still near the bottom of a long term, down trend. The rate has bounced from its (3.074%) low point and it is trending higher. More upper targets are at 3.808%, 3.995%, 4.095, 4.415% and 4.61%. Although the market has turned up, the downtrend, begun in January 2000, is still in effect and the T-note will eventually turn back down, to at least 3.361%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note continued in a third week of a rapid slide, lower. The T-note ranged from 101-6/32 to 99-10/32, closing down, at 99-13/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Note was in a falling trend and a level of support was forecast at 99-8/32 or 99-1/32. Last week's decline held directly above those levels.

This week begins with the Note in a falling trend and likely to move down to 98-3/32. If a level of support is established this week or next week, the potential result can bring a rebound to 104-6/32. Longer term, the Note will move sideways for several weeks or longer.

Last week, the U.S. stock market turned down but recovered by the week's end. The S&P 500 ranged between 995.00 and 962.10, closing higher, at 985.70. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended in its advance and now finding a top. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)32.91%.

This week, the U.S. stock market is trading in a base building pattern, before making another attempt at 996 or higher. It is consolidating gains of the recent three month rally. After this phase of consolidation, a continued advance is likely. But, the market is showing early signs of forming a top, as future advances fail to be sustained. In weeks to come, retracement, down to 920 and eventually back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500) will be the direction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index backed down from the prior two weeks' advance. The DX moved in a range of 95.34 to 93.96, closing lower, at 94.41.

The the dollar index is in a consolidating, base building phase. The DX is building a base to move up and with time, up to the 1.00 target and potentially consolidate there. World events and economics have impeded the DX from moving higher but (FX) foreign exchange market forces have started to correct an extremely oversold DX.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved within the prior week's range. It traded in a range of 1.1611 to 1.1401, closing higher, at 1.1488. As forecast, a minor rally would take the market up to 1.1542, as it did.

The EC is attempting another rise but an advance is likely to break lower and eventually go to the 1.07 area. A clearly trending pull-back will commence upon returning economic activity in the US, probably defined by a rising trend in U.S. interest rates. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to technically excessive elevations, it is poised to fall, one day.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved steadily higher, last week. It traded in a range of $27.58 to $28.90, closing up, at $28.52. As forecast in Plazaview, this market was still trending higher and as forecast, it hit the $28.23 target.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is top heavy but still trending higher, toward $30.02.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price moved higher, last week. The market traded in a range of $.7565 to $.775, closing up, at $.7715.

This week, gasoline's (Dec-futures) price is in a rising trend. The market will eventually rise and define its upper limit, before falling back to $.72 or even $.69. Its current trending potential is up to $.8325, depending upon the still rising trend. Overall, the market is now more inclined to moving higher and finding a top price.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved up but gave back much of its gain by the end of last week. It ranged between $.7816 and $.813, to close up, at $.7979. As forecast in Plazaview, the market moved up to the targets of $.7979, $.8056, and $.812.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price is in a rising trend. Winter market demand is at its summer low point and the market can drift back down from current levels, to $.73.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas moved lower for all of last week. NG-Z ranged between $5.85 and $5.56, closing down, at $5.685. As forecast in Plazaview, the marker moved down and it hit the $5.60 target.

This week, the NG (Dec-futures) is trending lower but it is in a too sharp, decline. The NG market may correct to a lower target of $5.193. Soon, a turn-around rally has potential to bring the market back up, toward the recent $6.772 high.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-14-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins lower, at 3.655% and S&P 500 starts higher, at 985.70)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note attempted but failed to continue the prior three weeks' rise, from a 3.074% multi-year low. It ranged from 3.769% to 3.638%, closing slightly lower for the week, at 3.64%. As described in Plazaview, the downtrend is still in effect.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still near the bottom of a long term, down trend, which began in January of 2000. The rate has bounced from its (3.074%) low point and it is now moving higher. More upper targets are at 3.808%, 3.995%, 4.095, 4.415% and 4.61%. Although the market has turned up, the downtrend, begun in January 2000, is in effect and the T-note will eventually turn back down, to at least 3.361% before sustaining upward gains.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved down but recovered for the remainder of the week. The T-note ranged from 100-1/32 to 98-14/32, closing slightly higher, at 99-15/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Note was in a falling trend and a level of support was forecast at 99-8/32 or 99-1/32. Last week's decline held above those levels.

This week begins with the Note in a falling trend and likely to eventually move down to 98-3/32. If a level of support is established, probably around 98-3/32, the market can rebound to 104-6/32. Longer term, the Note will move sideways for several weeks or longer.

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved up and down in an advance settlement of this week's triple expiration of futures and options. The S&P 500 ranged between 1010.43 and 983.63, closing higher, at 998.14. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended in its advance and now finding a top. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)32.06%.

This week, the U.S. stock market is trading in a base building pattern, before making another attempt at higher levels. Although it may appear to have consolidated its gains of the recent three month rally, the market is vulnerable. The market is showing early signs of forming a top, as future advances will fail to be sustained. In weeks to come, retracement, down to 920 and eventually back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500) will be the direction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved up and down, closing higher by the end of the week. The DX moved in a range of 96.15 to 94.49, closing up, at 95.80.

The dollar index is in a consolidating, base building phase. The DX has had moved up, since mid-June. Now, it may continue higher, to 97 but it is vulnerable to correction, back to its base of about 92.65. Beyond that, with time, it has built a good base to move up to the 1.00 target. World events and economics have impeded the DX from moving higher but (FX) foreign exchange market forces have started to correct an extremely oversold DX.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved up and down. It traded in a range of 1.1485 to 1.1261, closing lower, at 1.1296. As forecast, an advance was likely to break lower, as it did.

The EC is attempting another rise but it is likely to break lower and eventually go to the 1.07 area. A clearly trending pull-back will commence upon returning economic activity in the US, probably defined by a rising trend in U.S. interest rates. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to technically excessive elevations, it is poised to continue moving lower.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved steadily higher, last week. It traded in a range of $28.01 to $29.63, closing up, at $29.43. As forecast in Plazaview, this market was still trending higher and it nearly hit the $30.02 target.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is near the top of its current advance but still trending higher, toward $30.02. This market has not made a final top but it is due for profit taking and the initial decline is near.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price moved higher, last week. The market traded in a range of $.7672 to $.805, closing up, at $.804.

This week, gasoline's (Dec-futures) price is in a rising trend. Although the market has an upper target potential at $.8325, it is near its upper limit. Consolidation, sideways trading may emerge for the next few weeks, before falling back to $.72 or even $.69. Overall, the market is now inclined to continue moving higher but it is currently finding a top price.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved up and held its gain by the end of last week. It ranged between $.783 and $.815, to close up, at $.825.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price is in a rising trend and may attempt to reach $.8599 but the market is due for selling. If the current advance fails, as it should, the market will drift back down from current levels, to $.73 and trade back up and sideways for several weeks.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas moved up and back down last week. NG-Z ranged between $6.02 and $5.61, closing lower, at $5.631.

This week, the NG (Dec-futures) is trending lower but a potential turn around rally has future potential. The NG market may correct down to a target of $5.193. And then, a turn-around rally may develop, to bring the market back up, toward the recent $6.772 high.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-21-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins higher, at 3.969% and S&P 500 starts higher, at 993.32)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note vaulted higher, continuing its bounce from the recent 3.074%, multi-year low. It ranged from 3.617% to 4.086%, closing higher for the week, at 3.969%. As described in Plazaview, the downtrend is still in effect but the rate is currently rising and it hit the forecast targets of 3.808% and 3.995%.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still near the bottom of a long term, down trend, which began in January of 2000. The rate has bounced from its (June 13, 3.074%) low point and it is now moving higher. Although more upper targets remain at 4.095%, 4.415% and 4.61%, the yield rate is getting top heavy and could turn back down in a week or two. While the market has turned up, the downtrend, begun in January 2000, remains in effect and the T-note will eventually turn back down, to at least 3.361% before sustaining current upward gains.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved down, sharply. The T-note ranged from 100-1/32 to 96-5/32, closing lower, at 97-2/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Note was in a falling trend and it moved down to the 98-3/32 target and lower.

This week begins with the Note already down as expected and now ready to soon turn upwards. If a level of support is established this week, after consolidating in last week's range, the market can rebound to 104-6/32. Longer term, the Note may be entering a sideways range for several weeks or longer.

Last week, the U.S. stock market continued to move in the sixth week of a sideways, top forming range. The S&P 500 ranged between 1015.41 and 978.60, closing lower, at 993.32. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended in its advance and now finding a top. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-32.39%).

This week, the U.S. stock market is trading in a rising trend but appears vulnerable to at least falling lower within that rising trend. Although it may appear to have consolidated its gains of the recent three month rally, the market is vulnerable. The market is showing early signs of forming a top, as future advances will fail to be sustained. In weeks to come, retracement, down to 920 and eventually back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500) will be the direction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved up and closed higher by the end of the week. The DX moved in a range of 95.74 to 97.45, closing up, at 96.86. As forecast, the dollar moved higher and hit the 97 target.

The dollar index has had a strong rise from it June low point but it is now looking top heavy and ready for a retracement. This is part of a longer term, base building. While the DX has moved up, since mid-June, it is now vulnerable to moving back to its base of about 92.65. Beyond that, with time, it will have built a good base to move up to the 1.00 target. World events and economics have previously impeded the DX from moving higher but (FX) foreign exchange market forces are correcting.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved down at first but it recovered. It traded in a range of 1.134 to 1.1116, closing higher, at 1.134. As forecast, the market was likely to break lower, as it did.

The EC has been in a sharp down trend since June. Since last week, it is attempting to build a base and rise. That is likely to be eventually successful in rising but not for long. There is a clearly trending pull-back in motion and this can bring the EC much lower. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to technically excessive elevations, it is poised to trend lower.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved narrowly sideways, last week. It traded in a range of $28.80 to $29.60, closing nearly unchanged, at $29.42. As forecast in Plazaview, this market was still trending higher but close to its current top and nearly the $30.02 target.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price, last week traded inside the prior week's range. The market traded in a range of $.776 to $.80, closing marginally down, at $.7985.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil, last week moved inside the upper range of the prior week. It ranged between $.806 and $.831, to close marginally lower, at $.8215.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price is in a rising trend and may attempt to reach $.8599 but the market is due for selling. If the current advance fails as is likely, the market will drift back down from current levels, to $.73 and then, trade back up and sideways for several weeks.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas moved down and then partially recovered last week. NG-Z ranged between $5.65 and $5.32, closing lower, at $5.47.

This week, the NG (Dec-futures) is still trending lower from the June top. The market is narrowly defined as in potential range, between $5.942 and $4.732. It is due for moving higher on a short rebound but first, the NG-Z market may correct down to a target of $5.193. And then, a turn-around rally may develop, to bring the market back up, toward the recent $6.772 high.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-28-2003
Verify the superb records of forecast accuracy at the www.Plazaview.com library.

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins higher, at 4.178% and S&P 500 starts higher, at 998.68)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note attained a small continuance of the prior week's advance, from the mid-June, 3.074%, multi-year low. Last week, it ranged from 3.991% to 4.224%, closing higher for the week, at 4.178%. As described in Plazaview, the downtrend is still in effect but the rate currently rising and it hit two more of the remaining forecast targets of 4.095% and 4.415%.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still near the bottom of a long term, down trend, which began in January of 2000. The rate has bounced from its (June 13, 3.074%) low point and it is now close to the end of it current rise. One more upper target remains at 4.61%, but the yield rate is already top heavy and it will find a top and begin moving back down, possibly during this week or the following week. While the rate turned up in June, the down trend, begun in January 2000, remains still in effect and the yield rate will turn back down, to at least 3.361%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved down on Monday and sideways for the rest of the week. The T-note ranged from 97-1/32 to 95-4/32, closing lower, at 95-9/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Note was in a falling trend and it moved down to a potential level of support.

This week begins with the Note already down as expected and now ready to soon turn upwards. If last week's level of support holds this week, the market can rebound to 104-6/32. Longer term, the Note may be entering a sideways range for several weeks or longer.

Last week, the U.S. stock market continued to move in a seventh week of a sideways, top forming range. The S&P 500 ranged between 975.63 and 998.89, closing with a small gain at 998.68. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended in its advance and is now finding a top. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-32.03%).

This week, the U.S. stock market is trading in a rising trend but appears ready to at least fall within that rising trend. Although it may appear to have consolidated its gains of the recent three month rally, the market's surge is vulnerable. The market is showing early signs of forming a top, future advances will fail to be sustained. In weeks to come, retracement, down to 920 and eventually back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500) will be the direction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved down but remained within the range of the prior two weeks. The DX moved in a range of 96.87 to 94.71, closing up, down at 94.96. As forecast in Plazaview, the dollar was ready for retracement and it is now confirming.

The dollar index has had a strong rise from its June low point but now it is retracing the advance and potentially building a base for a future, sustainable advance. This is a longer term process of base building. While the DX has moved up, since mid-June, it is now vulnerable to moving back to a potential base range of 92.65 to 91.88. With time, it will have built a good base to move up to the 1.00 target. World events and economics have previously impeded the DX from moving higher but (FX) foreign exchange market forces are gradually correcting.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved up in a recovery of prior weeks' losses. It traded in a range of 1.1244 to 1.1551, closing higher, at 1.151. As forecast, the market was likely to rise, as it did last week.

The EC has been in a sharp down trend since June. Since last week, it is in a rebounding phase. That rebound is likely to carry the market back to recent highs of 1.19 but not for long. There is a clearly trending pull-back in motion and this can bring the EC much lower. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to technically excessive elevations.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved down last Tuesday but recovered much of the loss during the remainder of last week. It traded in a range of $29.44 to $28.20, closing down (-$.48), at $28.94. As forecast in Plazaview, this market was still trending higher but close to its current top and for a second week, it nearly hit the $30.02 target.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price, did much the same as crude last week. The market traded in a range of $.7938 to $.763, closing marginally lower, at $.7825.

This week, gasoline's (Dec-futures) price is in a rising trend. While the market has upper target potentials at $.804 and $.8325, it is then at its upper limit. Consolidation, sideways trading may emerge for the next few weeks, before falling back to $.72 or even $.69. Overall, the market is now inclined to continue moving higher but it in top pricing phase.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil, last week moved similar to that of crude oil. It ranged between $.821 and $.78, to close down, at $.8009.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price is in a rising trend which began in May but it appears to have nearly run its advancing course. There is limited upside potential to reach a target of $.8599, the market is increasingly due for selling. The current advance is likely to fail and the market will then drift back down, closer to $.73.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas moved down and remained down for last week. NG-Z ranged between $5.58 and $5.17, closing lower, at $5.194. As forecast in Plazaview, the market corrected down to the $5.193 target and closed nearly at that forecast target.

This week, the NG (Dec-futures) is trending lower from its top price in June, but last week it ended with a potential set to rally for this week. The market is in trading range, between $5.942 and $4.732. It is now close to the lower end and it will soon turn, higher. A turn-around rally will soon bring the market up, possibly to the $5.942, eventually $6.772 has potential.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-4-2003

Verify the unsurpassed record of accurate forecasts at the www.plazaview.com library.

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins higher, at 4.415% and S&P 500 starts lower, at 980.15)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note moved higher but gave back almost half the gain by the end of the week. Last week, it ranged from 4.193% to 4.592%, closing higher for the week, at 4.415%. As described in Plazaview, the downtrend is still in effect but the rate is currently rebounding from its mid-June, 3.074%, multi-year low.

This week, the 10-year Note’s yield rate is still near the bottom of a long term, down trend, which began in January of 2000. The rate has rallied from its June 13, (3.074%) low point and it is now close to the end of the current rise. One more upper target remains at 4.61%, but the yield rate is already overextended and it will find a top and begin moving back down, possibly by the end of this week. The rate may rise to bounce off its 4.61% target before turning downward. While the rate turned up in June, the down trend, begun in January 2000, remains still in effect and the yield rate will return to at least 3.361%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved down for most of the week. The T-note ranged from 95-10/32 to 92-8/32, closing lower, at 93-14/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Note was in a falling trend but it moved below a potential level of support.

This week begins with the Note already down as expected and but ready to turn upwards. If last week’s lows become this week’s level of support, the market will soon rally, toward 104-6/32.

Last week, the U.S. stock market continued to move in the eighth week of a sideways, top forming range. The S&P 500 ranged between 1004.59 and 978.86, closing lower, at 980.15. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended in its advance and now, finding a top. At last week’s close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-33.29%).

This week, the U.S. stock market is trading in a rising trend but recent weeks of a sideways and declining trend are leading to a fall within that rising trend. Although the market could appear to have consolidated its gains of the recent three month rally, the market’s recent surge is ended. In weeks to come, retracement, down to 920 and eventually back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500) will be the direction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved up with vigor. The DX moved in a range of 94.79 to 97.55, closing up, at 96.66. As forecast in Plazaview, the dollar had been retracing and forming a base for an advance.

The dollar index is now in a rising trend, from its June low point. This is a longer term process of base building. While the DX is currently in a rising trend, more base building may be required after the current move ends. A potential base is in the range of 92.65 to 91.88. With time, the DX will have built a good base to move up to the 1.00 target. World events and economics have previously impeded the DX from moving higher but (FX) foreign exchange market forces are now supportive.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved down, in a range of 1.154 to 1.1235, closing lower, at 1.1269. As forecast, a clearly trending pull-back from an excessive elevation was in motion.

The EC has been in a sharp down trend since June. There is a clearly trending pull-back in motion and this can bring the EC much lower. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to technically excessive elevations.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved up last week and spiked higher on Firday. It traded in a range of $28.50 to $30.79, closing up +$1.85, at $30.79. The past several weeks of this rise have happened as forecast in Plazaview, last week hit the final $30.02 target.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is about done, at or near the top of its current advance. This market ended last week at the potential of a final top, additional buying will be excessive. It is due for profit taking and an initial decline is nearby.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price, did much the same as crude last week. The market traded in a range of $.77 to $.8325, closing higher, at $.8325. As forecast in Plazaview, the price rise has occurred and the final targets have been hit at $.804 and $.8325.

This week, gasoline’s (Dec-futures) price is also about done rising. It is now at its upper limit any further advance will be excessive. Consolidation, sideways trading may emerge for the next few weeks, before falling back to $.72 or even $.69.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil, last week moved similar to that of crude oil. It ranged between $.788 and $.8644, to close down, at $.8644. As forecast in Plazaview, the prior weeks of price rise and price targets have been met, including that week’s final target of $.8599.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price rise has run up to the logical end of its course. Now, there is limited upside potential, the market is due for selling. The market will soon drift back down, closer to $.73.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas moved high but in a separate pattern from the rest of the energy markets. NG-Z ranged between $5.11 and $5.38, closing higher, at $5.365. As forecast in Plazaview, the market corrected down to the $5.193 target and closed nearly at that forecast target. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was set to rally, as it did.

This week, the NG (Dec-futures) is in trading range, between $5.942 and $4.732. It is now moving higher and a break out of the range will be instructive. A break out rally could bring the market up, possibly to the $5.942, and $6.772 has potential.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-11-2003
Verify the unsurpassed record of accurate forecasts at the www.Plazaview.com library.

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins lower, at 4.289% and S&P 500 starts lower, at 977.59)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note moved steadily lower. It ranged from 4.461% to 4.19%, closing down for the week, at 4.289%. As described in Plazaview, the downtrend is still in effect and the rise from its mid-June, 3.074%, multi-year low, was likely to reverse.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still near the bottom of a long term, down trend, which began in January of 2000. The rate has completed the rally from its June 13, (3.074%) low point and it is now in a process of ending that rise. It has not yet turned decidedly lower and the market is likely to reversing last week's decline and move (briefly) higher again to 4.441% or 4.61%. In any event, the yield rate is now overextended and it is in the process of turning back down. While the rate turned up in June, the down trend, begun in January 2000, remains in effect and the yield rate will return to at least 3.361%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved up, ranging from 93-7/32 to 100-8/32, closing higher, at 99-12/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Note was ready to turn upwards, as it did.

This week begins with the Note in an overly advanced, early stage of rising and this is likely to cause temporary selling. The 10-Note will move back down from 99-12/32, to the 95-5/32 level and then become inclined to resume an upward trend, toward 104-6/32.

Last week, the U.S. stock market continued to move in the ninth week of a sideways, top forming range. The S&P 500 ranged between 985.75 and 960.84, closing lower, at 977.59. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended from the March low of its recent advance and now, slowly finding a top. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-33.46%).

This week, the U.S. stock market is trading in a rising trend but recent weeks of a sideways and declining trend are leading back to the bottom of the rally. In weeks to come, retracement, down to 920 and eventually back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500) will be the market's direction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved narrowly lower and then, gained back most of the week's decline. The DX moved in a range of 96.65 to 95.56, closing down, at 96.36. As forecast in Plazaview, the dollar had been retracing and forming a base for an advance.

The dollar index is now in a rising trend, from its June low point. While the DX is currently in a rising trend, more base building may be required after the current move is ended. A potential base is in the range of 92.65 to 91.88. With time, the DX will have built a good base to move up to the 1.00 target. For now, it is in a rising direction.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved narrowly higher but gave back most of the rise. It traded in a range of 1.1263 to 1.1426, closing up, at 1.1306. As forecast, a clearly trending pull-back from an excessive elevation is in motion and this has a limiting effect on attempted rallies.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved up last week but with lower prices tested each day. It traded in a range of $29.95 to $31.30, closing narrowly higher, at $30.94. The past several weeks of this rise have developed as forecast in Plazaview, last week was as before.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price rise is at or near the top of its current advance. This market ended last week at the potential of a final top. Any additional buying will be excessive and briefly sustainable. CO is due for profit taking and the initial decline is nearby.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price rose steadily higher last week but in a narrow range. The market traded in a range of $.8138 to $.8411, closing only +$.0037 higher, at $.8362. As forecast in Plazaview, the price rise was limited.

This week, gasoline's (Dec-futures) price is due for selling. It is now at its upper limit and any further advance will be unsustainable. A delay of sideways trading could emerge for the next few weeks, before falling back to $.72 or even $.69.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved narrowly lower, last week. It ranged between $.845 and $.8725, to close (-$.0030) down, at $.8614. As forecast in Plazaview, the recent price rise has run its course and the market had limited upside potential.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price rise has run up to the logical end of its course. There is limited upside potential and the market is due for selling. The market will soon drift back down, closer to $.73.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas moved higher last week. NG-Z ranged from $5.15 to $5.616, closing $.1540 higher, at $5.519. As forecast in Plazaview, the market would move higher, as it did.

This week, NG (Dec-futures) is still in a trading range, between $5.942 and $4.732. While it is now attempting to continue the past two weeks' ascent, a break out of the upper range is unlikely for this week. The market can rise further but it will need to briefly pull back to around $5.263 before sustaining the next big move up to $5.942 and $6.772.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-18-2003
Verify the unsurpassed record of accurate forecasts at the www.Plazaview.com library.

(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins higher, at 4.528% and S&P 500 starts higher, at 990.67)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved steadily higher until turning down on Friday. It ranged from 4.318% to 4.668%, closing up for the week, at 4.528%. As described in Plazaview, the downtrend is still in effect and the rise from its mid-June, 3.074%, multi year low, was likely to move briefly higher as it did, hitting the 4.441% and 4.61% targets.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still near the bottom of a long term, downtrend which began in January of 2000. The rate has completed the rally from its June 13, (3.074%) a low point and now it is in a process of ending that rise. It is in the process of finding a top, not yet turned decidedly lower. Another brief attempt to rise is expected, up to 4.586% before the rate will turn and move to lower targets of 4.357%, 4.289%, 3.969% and 3.361%. The yield rate is now overextended at its current upper range and in the gradual process of turning down.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved down, ranging from 100 to 96-12/32, closing (-2) lower, at 97-12/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Note was likely to move back down to the 95-5/32 level, as nearly did.

This week begins with the Note still in a corrective trend. As two weeks ago, it became overly advanced in the early stage of rising. The 10-Note will complete last week's move, back down to the 95-5/32 level and then become ready to resume upward mobility, toward 104-6/32.

Last week, the U.S. stock market continued to move sideways, near the end of a second month of its sideways, top forming range. The S&P 500 ranged between 974.21 and 992.50, closing higher, at 990.67. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended from the March low of its recent advance and slowly finding a top. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-32.57%).

This week, the U.S. stock market is trading in a rising trend but recent weeks of sideways and declining trends will lead back to the bottom of the March rally. In weeks to come, downward retracement, to 920 and eventually back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500) will be the market's direction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved narrowly higher. The DX moved in a range of 95.69 to 96.82, closing marginally up, at 96.65.

Last week, the Euro-Currency resumed its move lower, however in a narrow range of 1.1379 to 1.1221, closing down, at 1.1255. As forecast, a clearly trending pull-back from a previous, excessive elevation is in motion.

The EC has been in a sharp downtrend since June. There is a clearly trending pull-back in motion and this can bring the EC much lower. Prior months of price advance had pushed the EC to technically excessive elevations. For now, it is still in a falling direction.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved lower for most of last week but recovered some of the loss on Friday. It traded in a range of $31.10 to $29.30, closing down, at $30.09. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was near or at a final top and due for the initial decline.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is still at or near the top of its recent advance. This market ended last week, still near the potential of a final top. Additional buying will be excessive and briefly sustainable. CO is due for profit taking and the initial decline is nearby.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price moved steadily down, last week. The market traded in a range of $.834 to $.798, closing lower, at $.8164. As forecast in Plazaview, the price was due for selling.

This week, the gasoline (Dec-futures) price is still due for selling. It is now at its upper limit and any further advance will be unsustainable. A delay of sideways trading and a rise to $.8362 could emerge for the next few weeks, before it falls back to $.72 or even $.69.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved down, last week. It ranged from $.863 to $.816, closing lower, at $.8265. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was due for selling.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price begins near to the upper level of its current trading range. It has already moved down from a potential top of $.8698 and it is likely to drift further down. There is limited upside potential until the market drifts down, closer to $.73.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas moved higher for most of last week. On Thursday, there was a major loss of electricity service throughout the Northeastern region of the U.S. and a part eastern of Canada. As a result, the NG price advance was interrupted with selling on Thursday but prices stabilized in Friday's narrow range. For the week, NG-Z ranged from $5.70 to $5.33, closing (-$.12) lower, at $5.399. As forecast in Plazaview, the market could move higher but needed to pull back to around $5.263, as it nearly did.

This week, NG (Dec-futures) is still wandering in a trading range, between $5.942 and $4.732. Last week's decline may be completed if NG-Z will briefly move down to around $5.263 and $5.155. After meeting those lower targets, followed by some base building over a few weeks, the next big move will be up to $5.942 and $6.772.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-25-2003
Verify the unsurpassed record of accurate forecasts at the www.Plazaview.com library.

(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins lower, at 4.459% and S&P 500 starts higher, at 993.06)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved steadily lower until turning up and partially recovering by the end of the week. It ranged from 4.561% to 4.335%, closing down for the week, at 4.459%. As described in Plazaview, the downtrend is still in effect and the rise from its mid-June, 3.074%, multi year low, was still in a process of ending that rise. It nearly hit the 4.586% target before turning down and hitting the 4.357% target, last week.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still near the bottom of a long term, downtrend which began in January of 2000 but the rate has completed its rise from the June 13, (3.074%) low point. Now, it is in the process of finding a top before turning lower. The delay of another brief attempt to rise is still a potential, up to 4.586% before the rate will turn and move to lower targets of 4.289%, 3.969% and 3.361%. The yield rate is overextended at its current, upper range and in a turning process, before moving down.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved up and down, ranging sideways from 97-9/32 to 99-5/32, closing higher, at 98-5/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Note was likely to move back down to the 95-5/32 level. Instead, it was moved higher and stabilized by the advancing T-bond.

This week begins with the Note still in a corrective trend. As three weeks ago, it became overly advanced in the early stage of rising. The 10-Note will complete the corrective move, back down to the 95-5/32 level and then resume upward mobility, toward 104-6/32.

Last week, the U.S. stock market advanced in a narrow range but fell back on Friday. The S&P 500 ranged between 991.47 and 1011.01, closing slightly higher, at 993.06. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended from the March low of its recent advance and slowly finding a top. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-32.41%).

This week, the U.S. stock market is trading in a rising trend but recent weeks of sideways and declining trends are leading back to the bottom of the March rally. In weeks to come, downward retracement, to 920 and eventually back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500) will be the market's direction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved steadily higher. The DX moved in a range of 96.53 to 99.25, closing up, at 98.83.

The dollar index is now in a rising trend, from its June low point. The DX is likely to move higher but soon, its current advance will be too quickly advanced, inclined to move back down for base building. A potential base is in the range of 92.65 to 91.88. With time, the DX will have built a good base to continue the move, up to and past the 1.00 target.

Last week, the Euro-Currency continued moving lower. It ranged from 1.1271 to 1.0836, closing down, at 1.0885. As forecast, a clearly trending pull-back from the previous, excessive elevation is in motion.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved down at first but rallied for most of last week, due to resumed Middle-East turmoil. It ranged between $31.35 to $29.62, closing up, at $31.05. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was near or at a final top and (otherwise) due for decline.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is still at or near the top of its recent advance. This market ended last week, near the potential of a final top. Additional buying will be excessive and briefly sustainable. CO is due for profit taking and the initial decline is only delayed.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price moved steadily down but reversed on the end of last week, due renewed to Middle-East turmoil. The market traded in a range of $.8425 to $.809, closing higher, at $.8315 and hitting the $.8362 target. As forecast in Plazaview, the price was due for selling, as it did.

This week, the gasoline (Dec-futures) price is still due for selling to $.8211 and lower. It is now at its upper limit and any further advance will be unsustainable. Increased usage from the Labor Day holiday may delay the Dec -HU price drop, back to $.72 or even $.69.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved down but reversed on the last week, due to renewed Middle-East turmoil. It ranged from $.871 to $.809, closing higher, at $.856. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was due for selling, as it did.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price begins near the upper level of its current trading range. It is likely to drift further down. There is limited upside potential and the market will quickly move down to $.8291, eventually closer to $.73.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas moved steadily higher, last week. For the week, NG-Z ranged from $5.399 to $5.78, closing up, at $5.716. As forecast in Plazaview, the market could pull back to around $5.263 but its overall direction was higher.

This week, NG (Dec-futures) is well advanced in the immediate time frame but soon due to retrace the recent advance. It is in a trading range, between $5.942 and $4.732. A brief move down, to around $5.263 and $5.155 may develop before the market can proceed higher. After meeting those lower targets, the next big move will carry NG-Z up to $5.942 and $6.772.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-1-2003
Verify the unsurpassed record of accurate forecasts at the www.Plazaview.com library.

(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins lower, at 4.609% and S&P 500 is higher, at 1008.01)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved up on Monday but retraced Monday's advance for most of the week. It ranged from 4.609% to 4.412%, closing slightly down for the week, at 4.454%. As described in Plazaview, the downtrend is still in effect and the rise from its mid-June, 3.074%, multi year low is ending. Before moving down, it rose to the 4.586% target, as forecast.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still near the bottom of its long term, downtrend which began in January of 2000. But, the rate has completed a mini-rise from (3.074%) the June 13, low point. It is ready to move from the process of finding a top and proceed, lower. The past five weeks' delay of attempts to continue the rise is largely complete. The yield is now at or close to the end of its arching top. The next big move will be down, to targets of 4.289%, 3.969% and 3.361%. Any further delay will be caused by the T-note (see below) resulting in a delay of the narrowly drifting rate; the rate's downside has greatest potential.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved sideways, last week, ranging from 97-3/32 to 98-12/32, closing unchanged, at 98-5/32. The Note was unable to move back down to the 95-5/32 level. Instead, while it attempted move down each day, it was moved up by the advancing T-bond.

This week begins with the Note still in a corrective trend. Four weeks ago, it advanced too far in comparison with the T-bond and a correction has been delayed. The 10-Note will eventually complete the corrective move, back down to the 95-5/32 level and/or resume upward mobility, toward 104-6/32.

Last week, the U.S. stock market advanced but remained within the narrow range of the prior week. The S&P 500 ranged from 983.57 to 1008.85, closing higher, at 1008.01. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended in its advance from the March low point and slowly finding its top. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-31.39%).

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved sideways for most of the week but down on Friday. The DX moved in a range of 97.87 to 99.49, closing down, at 98.10.

The dollar index is now in a rising trend, from its June low point. The DX is likely to regroup from last week's decline and then move higher. Eventually, the current advance will end and the DX will move down for more base building. A potential base is in the range of 92.65 to 91.88. With time, the DX will have built a good base to continue the move, up to and sustain itself, above the 1.00 target.

Last week, the Euro-Currency turned higher. It ranged from 1.0794 to 1.10, closing up, at 1.0978.

The EC has been in a sharp downtrend since June and last week's upturn was a short term event. There is a clearly trending pull-back in motion and this can bring the EC much lower. Prior months of price advance had pushed the EC to technically excessive elevations. For now, it is still in a falling direction but a short term rally may carry the market up to 1.1255.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved slightly up but mostly down, last week. It ranged between $31.45 to $30.40, closing down, at $30.83. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was near or at a final top and due for decline.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price moved slightly up but mostly down for last week. The market traded in a range of $.845 to $.815, closing lower, at $.8307. As forecast in Plazaview, the price was due for selling, and it hit the initial target of $.8311.

This week, the gasoline (Dec-futures) price is still due for selling to targets of $.8236, $.7912 and lower. It is now at its upper limit and any further advance will be unsustainable. The Dec -HU price will drop, down to $.72, possibly $.69.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved slightly higher but mostly down for last week. It ranged from $.868 to $.835, closing lower, at $.8433. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was due to move down, as it did.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas moved steadily down, last week. For the week, NG-Z ranged from $5.73 to $5.20, closing lower, at $5.251. As forecast in Plazaview, the market could pull back to around $5.263, as it did.

This week, NG (Dec-futures) has not completed its retracement, lower. It is still in its trading range, between $5.942 and $4.732. A bounce may occur this week but a further move down, to at least $5.155 will evolve, before the market can proceed higher. After testing its lower targets, the next big move will carry NG-Z up to $5.942 and $6.772. A period of inventory and price adjustment is occurring, before winter demand takes effect.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

To: (Select) Plazaview.com Subscribers (This initial notice e-mailed on 9/5/03)

You may be interested in the following observation.

Interest rates have been delayed in moving but will decline, probably over the next 6 to 8 weeks and move near the June low.

As a trade / speculation, there is money to be made on the potentially declining rates. The T-bond will move up if rates move down. One can buy the T-bond as an AMEX listed stock, symbol: TLT.

A potential low for TLT was formed on August 13. Since TLT (T-bond) intially showed potential for a buy, it has moved down, up, and sideways. That is usual, since my forecasts are more often early. TLT now seems to be ready for a break-out of the bottom formation.

Today, TLT moved up and out of its past sixteen days' range, above the initial bottom range of $80.91 to $83.99. There is risk that it will move back down, minimum to $82.65 or $82.19.

Within about 8 weeks, you may sell TLT above $96. At the recent average buy price of $82.50, a gain of 15%+ will develop in about two months. This calculation does not include the 4.5% annual dividend, paid monthly, while holding the position.

Good luck.

J. S. Bickford
www.Plazaview.com

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-8-2003
Verify the unsurpassed record of accurate forecasts at the www.Plazaview.com library.

(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins lower, at 4.354% and S&P 500 is higher, at 1021.39)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved up to start and down from there. It ranged up to 4.616% to 4.345%, closing at the low, 4.354%. As described in Plazaview, the downtrend is still in effect and the rise from its mid-June, 3.074%, multi-year low is ending.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still near the bottom of its long term, downtrend which began in January of 2000. The rate has completed a mini-rise from (3.074%) the June 13, low point. With the exception of a potential and brief attempt to rise up to 4.513%, it is ready to move down. The past six weeks' delay of attempts to continue the rise is largely complete. The next big move will be down, to targets of 4.289%, 3.969% and 3.361%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved down on Tuesday but turned up for the remainder of the week. It ranged down to 96-14/32 and up to 99-6/32, closing higher, at 99-3/32. The Note was still unable to move back down to the 95-5/32 level. Instead, while it attempted move down, it was drawn upward by the advancing T-bond.

This week begins with the Note still in a corrective trend. Five weeks ago, it advanced too far in comparison with the T-bond and a resulting correction has been postponed. The 10-Note will eventually complete the corrective move, back down to the 95-5/32 level or temporarily resume upward mobility, toward 104-6/32.

Last week, the U.S. stock market advanced mostly on Tuesday of last week but moved sideways for the remainder of the week. The S&P 500 ranged from 1005.67 to 1029.34, closing higher, at 1021.39. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended in its advance from the March low point and slowly finding its top. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-30.48%).

This week, the U.S. stock market is moving in a rising trend but the prior twelve weeks have moved sideways. Last week's rally broke above the horizontal pattern but this appears to be another top forming move, eventually leading back toward the bottom of the March rally. In weeks to come, a downward retracement, to 920 and eventually back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500) will be the market's direction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved up on Tuesday and down for most of the week. The DX moved in a range of 99.37 to 96.90, closing lower, at 97.09.

The dollar index is above the edge of a rising trend, from its June low point. If the DX does not soon regroup from last week's decline and resume its move, higher, the current advance will end and the DX will move down to 95.33 for more base building. A lower potential base is in the range of 92.65 to 91.88. With time, the DX will have built a good base to continue the move, up to and sustain itself, above the 1.00 target.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved lower on Tuesday but turned up for the rest of the week. It ranged from 1.0764 to 1.1112, closing up, at 1.1102. As forecast in Plazaview.com, a short term rally is expected to carry the EC up to 1.1255 as it nearly did last week.

The EC has been in a sharp downtrend since June and last week's rally brought it to the upper edge of the trend. The trending decline remains in downward motion and this has current potential to bring the EC much lower. For now, the EC is in a falling direction but a short term rally may carry the market up to 1.1255 and potentially reverse the June downtrend.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved steadily down, last week. It ranged from $30.75 to $28.15, closing down, at $28.58. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was near or at a final top and due for decline, as it did.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is in a new, downward direction. Last week's sharp decline may invite a temporary rebound, to $30.83, before continuing lower. CO is due for profit taking and it is moving down to $26.26.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price moved down, last week. The market traded in a range of $.825 to $.765, closing lower, at $.78. As forecast in Plazaview, the price was due for more selling, and it hit forecast targets of $.8236 and $.7912.

This week, the gasoline (Dec-futures) price is moving lower, except for the possibility of a brief rebound to $.8307. The Dec -HU price is moving down, to $.72, possibly $.69.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved steadily lower for last week. It ranged from $.8395 to $.773, closing down, at $.7825. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was likely to drift further down, as it did, hitting the $.8291 target and closer to the next.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price is possibly to far down in its initial phase. A rebound to $.8433 is possible but only as a brief rise. It is heading further down, closer to $.73.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas moved down on Monday but turned up on Tuesday and the rest of last week. For the week, NG-Z ranged narrowly from $5.34 to $5.04, closing higher, at $5.275. As forecast in Plazaview, a further move down, to at least $5.155 would evolve, before the market could proceed higher, as it did.

This week, NG (Dec-futures) has not completed its retracement, lower. It is still in its trading range, between $5.942 and $4.732. A bounce may occur this week, up to $5.576 but a further move down, to the bottom of the range is likely to evolve, before the market can sustain higher prices. After testing its lower range, the next big move will carry NG-Z up to $5.942 and $6.772. A period of inventory and price adjustment is now occurring, before winter demand takes effect.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-15-2003
Verify the unsurpassed record of accurate forecasts at the www.Plazaview.com library.

(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins lower, at 4.269% and S&P 500 is lower, at 1018.63)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved down. It ranged from 4.45% to 4.173%, closing down, at 4.269%. As described in Plazaview, rate was ready to move down, as it did, hitting the 4.289%, initial target.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is moving down to toward (3.074%) the June 13, low point. With the exception of a potential and brief attempt to rise up to 4.444% or 4.513%, it is in downward motion. The next big move will be down, to targets of 3.969% and 3.361%, possibly 3.074%, or briefly lower.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved up for most of the week. It ranged from 98-7/32 to 100-10/32, closing higher, at 100-0/32. The Note moved up with steady buying and skipped a corrective move, which would have briefly taken it back down to the 95-5/32 level.

This week begins with the Note indicating a more volatile pattern than the T-bond but trending higher. The 10-year Note will eventually complete the corrective move, back down to the 95-5/32 level but it appears to have postponed the downward correction and will continue its upward mobility, toward 104-6/32.

Last week, the U.S. stock market advanced on Monday but moved down, in a narrow range for the remainder of the week. The S&P 500 ranged from 1032.41 to 1007.71, closing lower, at 1018.63. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended in its advance from the March low point and slowly finding its top. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-30.67%).

This week, the U.S. stock market is moving in a rising trend but the prior thirteen weeks have moved sideways. Last week's failure to continue above the horizontal pattern appears to be another top forming move, eventually leading back toward the bottom of the March rally. Rallies are vulnerable at this time. In weeks to come, a downward retracement, to 920 and eventually back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500) will be the market's direction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved hesitatingly down, last week. The DX moved in a range of 97.51 to 95.78, closing lower, at 96.01. It broke down and hit the initial Plazaview target of 95.33.

The dollar index is above the edge of a rising trend, from its June low point. If the DX does not soon regroup from prior weeks' of sinking and resume its upward move, the current advance will end and the DX will move past 95.33 and 94.55 support, for lower base building. A lower potential base is in the range of 92.65 to 91.88. With time, the DX will have built a good base to continue the move, up and sustain itself above the 1.00 target.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved up in a range of 1.1048 to 1.133, closing up, at 1.1289. As forecast in Plazaview.com, a short term rally is expected to carry the EC up to 1.1255 as it did, last week.

The EC has been in a sharp downtrend since June and last week's rally brought it above the upper edge of the trend. For now, the EC is in a falling direction but a short term rally will carry the market up to 1.1452, reversing the June downtrend.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price attempted to rise until Thursday and Friday of last week. It ranged from $29.26 to $27.75, closing down, at $28.16. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is moving down but also attempted a temporary rebound, to the $30.83 target, before falling.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is in a downward direction. At the current price levels, temporary rallies can be expected but they will fade as CO is moving down, to the $26.26 target.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price moved up until it turned lower on Thursday and Friday of last week. The market traded in a range of $.793 to $.763, closing lower, at $.7743. As forecast in Plazaview, except for the possibility of a brief rebound, the price of gasoline was expected to move lower.

This week, the gasoline (Dec-futures) price is subject to the possibility of brief rallies but it is still moving down. The Dec -HU price is moving down, to $.7495, possibly $.6812.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved up until moving lower on Thursday and Friday of last week. It ranged from $.7971 to $.7625, closing down, at $.7717. As forecast in Plazaview, the market had potential to briefly rise but it was further down.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price is possibly too far down in its initially declining phase. A rebound to the upper target of $.8433 is now distant. A brief rise has potential but the market is heading further down, closer to $.73.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas Made several attempts to move higher but each returned to a nearly unchanged level, last week. For the week, NG-Z ranged from $5.17 to $5.55, closing higher, at $5.295. As forecast in Plazaview, a bounce was expected but a further move down, to at least $5.155 was also expected, before the market could proceed higher, as nearly happened.

This week, NG (Dec-futures) has not completed its retracement, lower. It is likely to attempt higher levels but fail, moving within $5.942 and $4.732. A another attempt to rise may occur this week, up to $5.576 but a further move down, to the bottom of the range is likely to evolve, before the market can sustain higher prices. After testing its lower range, the next big move will carry NG-Z up to $5.942 and $6.772. A period of inventory and price adjustment is now in progress, before winter demand takes effect.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-22-2003
Verify the unsurpassed record of accurate forecasts at the www.Plazaview.com library.

(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins lower, at 4.162% and S&P 500 is higher, at 1036.30)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note continued moving lower. It ranged from 4.321% to 4.123%, closing down, at 4.162%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate is in downward motion.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is moving down toward (3.074%) the June 13, low point. With the exception of a potential and brief pause to rise up to 4.291% or 4.334%, the rate is moving lower. Current movement is progressing, down to targets of 3.969% and 3.361%, possibly 3.074%, or briefly lower.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved above and below the prior week's closing price, but remained in the top of its range for September. It ranged from 99-7/32 to 100, closing higher, at 100-11/32. The Note moved up with steady buying but partially receded at the end of the week.
This week begins with the Note indicating higher levels or a brief period of consolidation, before advancing higher. The 10-year Note will eventually continue its upward move, toward 104-6/32.

Last week, the U.S. stock market continued moving in a narrow range and progressed slightly above the prior week's range. The S&P 500 ranged from 1013.59 to 1040.29, closing higher, at 1036.30. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended in its advance from the March low point and slowly finding its top. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-29.47%).

This week, the U.S. stock market is moving in a rising trend, above the recent thirteen weeks of a sideways holding pattern. Last week's modest advance, brings new life to an otherwise top forming move, eventually leading back toward the bottom of the March rally. The current market advance appears vulnerable to a small correction. This advance could linger for another six months, before concluding in a retracement, down to 950, potentially back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500).

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved down. The DX moved in a range of 96.90 to 94.73, closing lower, at 94.96. As previously outlined in Plazaview, the DX moved through the 95.33 target but held above the 94.55 support level.

The dollar index is testing the lower edge of a rising trend, from its June low point. If the DX does not soon regroup from prior weeks' of sinking and resume its upward move, the June advance will have ended. The DX needs to hold above 94.55 support, to maintain its current upward potential. A lower potential base is in the range of 92.65 to 91.88. With time, the DX will have built a good base to resume the upward move and sustain itself above the 1.00 target.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved narrowly higher, ranging 1.114 to 1.1382. It closed up, at 1.1363. As forecast in Plazaview.com, the EC is in a short term rally, expected to carry it up to 1.1452; as it nearly did last week.

The EC has been in a sharp downtrend since June but a prior week's rally brought it above the upper edge of the down trend. For now, the EC is in a falling direction but a short term rally will carry the market up to 1.1452, reversing the June downtrend.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved lower, ranging from $28.30 to $26.50 and closed down at $26.82, last week. As forecast in Plazaview, the market moved down and nearly hit the $26.26 target.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is still in a downward direction but at current price levels, a temporary rally is expected. The interim rally would then fade and the decline resumes.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price moved down, last week. The market traded in a range of $.775 to $.722, closing lower, at $.7281. As forecast in Plazaview, the price of gasoline would move lower and hit the $.7495 price target, as it did

This week, the gasoline (Dec-futures) price is still in a downward move but it is likely to bounce from last week's closing level, before testing lower. The Dec -HU price is moving down, possibly to $.6812 before.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved lower, last week. It ranged from $.776 to $.721, closing down, at $.7253. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was moving further down, closer to $.73, as it did.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price is too far down the current, declining phase. A minor rebound has more potential. While a brief rise has potential, the market will resume trending further down, below $.73.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas continued moving down, last week. For the week, NG-Z ranged from $5.26 to $4.97, closing lower, at $5.00. As forecast in Plazaview, lower levels were expected.

This week, NG (Dec-futures) has not completed its retracement, lower but sideways movement or a temporary rebound is more likely. Upper targets are $5.295 and $5.576. NG-Z is likely to attempt higher levels but will fall back in the process, remaining within $5.942 to $4.732. Seasonal Inventory and price adjustment is in progress, before winter demand takes effect.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-29-2003
Verify the unsurpassed record of accurate forecasts at the www.Plazaview.com library.

(Yield rate of the 10-year T-note begins lower, at 4.023% and S&P 500 is lower, at 996.85)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note continued moving lower. It ranged from 4.324% to 3.998%, closing down, at 4.023%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate briefly rose up to the initial upper target of 4.291%, before it proceeded lower.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still moving down, toward (3.074%) the June 13, low point. With the a slight potential of another brief rise, up to 4.334%, the rate is moving lower. Downward movement is progressing, toward targets of 3.969%, 3.361%, potentially 3.074% and lower.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved higher. It ranged from 99-7/32 to 102-2/32, closing higher, at 102-1/32. As forecast, the T-note is rising, toward its minimum target of 104-6/32.

This week begins with the Note indicating some resistance to higher levels, possibly toward the end of the week. After a further rise, by the end of the week, a period of consolidation may develop. The 10-year Note will complete its upward move, toward 104-6/32.

Last week, the U.S. stock market fell back down to the range of four weeks before. The S&P 500 ranged from 1036.30 to 996.08, closing lower, at 996.85. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended in its advance from the March low point and vulnerable to a small correction. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-32.15%).

This week, the U.S. stock market as returned to the June - August, thirteen weeks of a sideways holding pattern. Currently, the market will continue to attempt its advance to higher levels but it is seeking a top and eventually, it will turn down and move closer to the March lows. This advance could linger for another six months, before concluding in a retracement, down to 950, potentially back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500).

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index continued to move lower. The DX moved in a range of 94.40 to 93.39, closing down, at 93.87. As previously outlined in Plazaview, the DX did not hold above its potential level of support at 94.55.

This week, the DX has potential to find a base in the area of 92.65 to 91.88. However, more immediately, the DX has increasing potential to rise, up to 94.96. With time, the DX will have a good base to resume the upward move and sustain itself above 1.00, and hit the 101.92 target.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved higher, ranging 1.1415 to 1.1535 and it closed up, at 1.1479. As forecast in Plazaview.com, a short term rally would carry the euro up to 1.1452, as it did last week.

The EC is seeking an end to the August rally, The EC is finding a top, before resuming the decline which originated in June, but interrupted with the current rise, begun in August. This week, the EC is likely to move briefly lower, to 1.1363, before resuming August's upward momentum.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved up, ranging from $26.60 to $28.42 and closed up, at $27.92, last week. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was expected to have a temporary rally, as it did.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is biased toward higher levels. However, it is still in an immediate, downward trend and has not yet found a base from which to sustain the next advance. In time, a base will be established and the market will resume, upward, to 30.83.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price moved higher, last week. The market traded in a range of $.7268 to $.765, closing higher, at $.7545. As forecast in Plazaview, the price of gasoline was likely to bounce last week, as it did.

This week, the gasoline (Dec-futures) price is still in a downward move. It may briefly rise as it did last week but it will then resume moving lower. The Dec -HU price is moving down, possibly to $.6812 before it can sustain its next upward trend.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved higher, last week. It ranged from $.722 to $.7723, closing up, at $.7622. As forecast in Plazaview, the HO market was due to have a minor rebound, as it did.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price is not yet settled in its current, declining phase. The market will resume trending further down, below $.73, potentially hit $.6946, before resuming a sustainable trend of upward momentum.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas continued moving down, last week. For the week, NG-Z ranged from $5.09 to $4.86, closing lower, at $4.881. As forecast in Plazaview, NG had not completed its retracement to lower levels.

This week, NG (Dec-futures) is still trending lower but this week, there is potential for an initial rally. Nearby, upper targets are at $5.137 and $5.295; more distant, currently out of range is $5.576. NG-Z is likely to attempt higher levels this week but it will then fall back in the process, remaining within $5.942 to $4.732. Seasonal inventory and price adjustments are still in progress, before winter demand takes effect and the market has not established a base from which to launch a sustainable rise.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

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