Plazaview.com

 Forecast Records - 3rd Qtr. of 2002

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-1-2002 (S&P starts at 989.82)

Last week the U.S. stock markets completed the retracement, on target, down to (S&P 500) 966, as forecast by Plazaview (since 10-15-01). The S&P ranged down to 952.92 and rallied back up to 1005.88, closing slightly higher for the week, at 989.82. The Dow Industrials also moved lower but did not recover as well, closing down, at 9243.26. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)32.63%.

This week, the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend is still down but there is good potential for a rally. The U. S. stock market is now at a critical point. If the S & P 500 remains above the key level of 966, there is potential for an end to the ongoing correction and then, a new up trend to begin. This week has great potential but on a rally, the market will meet resistance at higher levels. The Plazaview forecast target has been achieved, a rally is now due to follow, however, the correction has not yet ended and before this correction ends, a few weeks or months of sideways market action may develop. From here, upward progress is needed, until the risk of a continued and further correction is terminated.

Last week, the (Sept) T-bond closed at 102.25 after it traded up to 105.5 and down to 102.14, closing lower as forecast in Plazaview. This week, the Bond is trending higher and will proceed in that direction but stock market players will continue taking cash from the Bond market and as in the prior week, this may inflict a downward pull on the Bond. The stock market is due for an initial rally but after that is complete, the Bond will resume its upward trend. The T-bond could back down to (Sept.) 99, possibly 97, or even 96, but only if the stock market launches a significant ‘summer rally.'

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved lower, further overextending its recent drop. By the end of the week, it closed down (-1.92) at 106.15. The dollar index is in a price correction, within a long-term, upward trend. The correction began as a sideways pattern in early October of 2000, responding to an overextended advance. Since January, the index has been moving increasingly downward. This week, the Dollar is overextended on the down side and due for a snap back rally, up to an initial target of 111.70 and then, 119.41 & 120.22.

The Euro-Currency index moved further up, last week, closing (+.0296) higher, at .9905. The EC has been steadily rising, since the start of the year. Last week, it moved further into an overextended advance. This week, the advance is due for a pull back, to at least .930013.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved above its three month range. The CRB closed (+5.70) higher, last week, at 209.29. Last week's rally has moved the CRB above and out of its holding pattern. This week begins with the CRB moving solidly in an upward trend, started in November of 2001.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept. -CO) market price moved up but it remained in a narrow range ($26.00 to $26.77) last week. CO (Sept.) closed up (+$.99), at $26.71. This week, CO begins in a minor up trend but it will have to hold above $25.72 or CO will return to the former, early stage of a downtrend. Lower targets await the market at $25.72, $24.00 and $20.86 (Sept. -CO).

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price moved up but it lingered in a narrow range of $.765 to $.784 last week. The (Sept. -HU) market closed up (+$.0213), at $.7729. This week, HU is in a mini up trend but it will have to hold above $.7516 or HU will return to the former, early stage of a downtrend. Lower targets await (Sept. HU) at $.7516, and further down to $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil rallied in a range of $.6658 to $.693, last week. The (Sept. - HO) closed up (+$.0255) for the week, at $.6892. This week, the HO market is in new, upward trend but it will have to hold above $.6637 or HO will reverse trend and move down, to targets of (Sept.- HO) $.6637, $.60 and $.56.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas market moved up to $3.529 and down to $3.25, last week. The (Sept - NG) closed down (-$.051) for the week, at $3.273. This week, the NG market resumes in its downward correction but it has recently moved too fast, too far down, getting ahead of itself. There is the potential for a temporary rise, back up to $3.755. Except for the caution indicated, the (Sept. -NG) price is on track, proceeding lower, to $3.125, $2.625, and $2.607.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-8-2002 (S&P starts at 989.03)

Last week the U.S. stock markets tested the (S&P 500) retracement target at 966 by trading below and closing above that level. Compared with the prior week, it was an inside week; the S&P ranged down to 934.87, turned up and rallied to 994.46, closing slightly lower, at 989.03. The Dow Industrials rallied and by the end of the week, closed up, at 9379.50. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)32.68%.

This week, the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend is still down but the market is indicating constructive base building for a rally. For the past two weeks, the U. S. stock market has remained above a critical turning point. As the S & P 500 remains above the key level of 966, there is potential for an end to the ongoing correction and the long term up-trend may resume. This week has great potential to rally but the market will meet resistance at higher levels. The Plazaview forecast target of 966 has been achieved and tested in the past two weeks, While a rally is now due to follow, the correction cycle of March 2000, has not yet ended. A few weeks or months of sideways market action may develop. Sustained upward progress is needed to remove the risk of a continued and further correction.

Last week, the (Sept) T-bond closed lower, at 102.21. The (Sept) Bond traded up to 103.31 and down to 102.8/32. This week, the Bond is trending higher and will proceed in that direction but stock market buyers will continue taking cash from the Bond market and as in the prior two weeks, this may inflict a downward pull on the Bond. The T-bond is still climbing, not yet ready for a selling trend but it could slide further down to (Sept.) 99, possibly 97 or even 96, if the stock market launches a significant rally.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index turned upward from its recently overextended decline. By the end of the week, it closed up (+1.48) at 107.63. The dollar index has been in a price correction, within a long-term, upward trend. The correction began as a sideways pattern in early October of 2000, responding to an overextended advance. Since January, the index has moved increasingly downward. This week, the Dollar is still overextended on the down side and due for a snap back rally, up to an initial target of 111.70, 119.41, and 120.22.

The Euro-Currency index reversed direction, last week, closing (-.0202) lower, at .9703. The EC has been steadily rising, since the start of the year. Last week, it began to move in the opposite direction, beginning the process of unwinding an overextended advance. This week, the advance is due for a another pull back, with a target of at least .9313.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved higher, remaining above its prior range. The CRB closed (+2.19) higher, last week, at 211.48. This week begins with the CRB continuing in an upward trend, started in November of 2001.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept. -CO) market price remained suspended in a narrow range of $26.85 to $26.30, last week. CO (Sept.) closed slightly lower (-$.03), at $26.68. This week, CO is in a minor up trend but it will have to hold above $25.72 or CO becomes vulnerable to a return of the former, early stage of a downtrend. Lower targets await the market at $25.72, $24.00 and $20.86 (Sept. -CO).

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price moved up, last week, trading in a narrow range of $.7815 to $.764. The (Sept. -HU) market closed higher +$.0028, at $.7757. This week, HU begins in a minor up-trend but it will have to hold above $.7516 or HU will return to its former, early stage of a downtrend. Lower targets await (Sept. HU) at $.7516, and down to $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil rallied in a narrow range of $.6885 to $.696, last week. The (Sept) closed up +$.0063 for the week, at $.6948. This week, the HO market is rising in a minor up-trend but it will have to hold above $.6637 or HO will reverse trend and move down, to targets of (Sept) $.6637, $.60 and $.56.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas market moved further down last week but it was contained in a narrow range. It ranged from $3.225 to $3.125, hitting the Plazaview target of $3.125 and closing down (-$.1260) for the week, at $3.147. This week, the NG market resumes its downward correction but it has already moved too fast, too far down, getting ahead of itself. There is the potential for a temporary rise, back up to $3.273. Except for the potential, temporary rise indicated, the (Sept. -NG) price is on track, proceeding lower, to $2.625, and $2.607.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-15-2002 (S&P starts at 921.39)

Last week, the U.S. stock markets fell below the (S&P 500) retracement target at 966. Compared with the prior two weeks, the market went into a critical failure. The S&P ranged up to 993.56 but it dropped down to 900.94, closing significantly lower, at 921.39. The Dow Industrials fell and by the end of the week, closed down, at 8684.53. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)37.29%.

This week, the long term trend is up, the intermediate trend is down and the market has moved below critical, potential rally levels. As the S & P 500 remains below 966, the market is moving lower and focus turns to critical levels of the Dow Industrials. The Dow must remain above 8567 or the market will be heading further down, to 8236. While a rally is now due and still has good potential, the correction cycle of March 2000, has not ended. These critical levels must begin to hold and sustained, upward progress is needed to remove the risk of a continued and further market correction.

Last week, the (Sept) T-bond closed higher, at 105.8. The (Sept) Bond traded from 102.20 and up to 105.30/32. This week, the Bond is trending higher and but if there is another higher week, it will be top heavy, more vulnerable to selling. The T-bond is still climbing, not in a selling trend but when it turns, it could slide down to (Sept) targets of 99, possibly 97 or even 96, if the stock market launches a significant rally.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index did not continue its prior week's upward turn, from its recently overextended decline. By the end of the week, it closed down (-1.75) at 105.88. The dollar index has been in a price correction, within a long-term, upward trend. The correction began as a sideways pattern in early October of 2000, responding to an overextended advance. Since January, the index has moved increasingly downward. This week, the Dollar is well overextended on the down side and due for a snap back rally, up to an initial target of 111.70, 119.41, and 120.22.

The Euro-Currency index retraced, last week, up to the prior week's level, closing +.0202, higher, at .9905. The EC has been steadily rising, since the start of the year. A week ago, it began to move in the opposite direction, beginning the process of unwinding an overextended advance. This week, the advance is due for a another pull back, with a target of at least .9313.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved lower, last week and recovered slightly. The CRB closed (+.19) higher, last week, at 211.67. This week begins with the CRB moving within an upward trend, started in November of 2001.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept. -CO) market price was volatile last week, moving in an expanded range of $26.05 to $27.48. CO (Sept) closed higher, +$.75, at $27.43. This week, CO's price increase is now vulnerable to a turn, back down, to the former, early stage of a downtrend. Lower targets await the (Sept. -CO) market at $25.72, $24.00 and $20.86.

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price was volatile last week, moving in an expanded range of $.7475 to $.81. The (Sept. -HU) market closed higher, +$.0299, at $.7757. This week, HU's price is now vulnerable to turn and back down. Lower targets await (Sept. HU) at $.7516, to $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil price was volatile last week, moving between $.667 and $.714. The (Sept) market closed up, +$.0175, for the week, at $.7123. This week, the HO market is vulnerable to reverse trend and move down, toward targets of (Sept) $.6637, $.60 and $.56.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas market moved further down, last week. NG-Sept ranged from $3.075 to $2.82, getting close to the Plazaview target of $2.625 and closing down (-$.317) for the week, at $2.83. This week, the NG market resumes trading in its downward correction but it is already down, getting ahead of itself. Although delayed last week, there is the potential for a temporary rise, back up to $3.147 and $3.273. Except for the potential to temporarily rise as indicated, the (Sept. -NG) price is on track, proceeding lower, to $2.625, and $2.607.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-22-2002 (S&P starts at 847.75)

Last week, the U.S. stock markets moved further down, remaining below the (S&P 500) retracement target at 966. The Dow moved to and below the Plazaview forecast target of 8236. The S&P ranged up to 926.52 and down to 842.07, closing near the week's low, at 847.75. The Dow Industrials closed (-665.27) lower, at 8019.26. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)42.3%.

This week, the long term trend is up, the intermediate trend is down but the stock markets are due for a rally. The major indices have reached the Plazaview forecasted, near term objectives to the down side. Now, individual components of the indices have lower targets and this will limit and delay full recovery of the major indices. General Electric (GE) is an example, with lower targets of $23.90 to $21.30. The market indices are currently oversold and a rally is due but the correction cycle of March 2000, has not yet ended. With potential of an upward turn of the market, volatility will overshadow the markets this week. Gradual, upward progress is needed to remove the risk of a continued and further market correction.

Last week, the (Sept) T-bond closed slightly higher, at 105.8. The (Sept) Bond traded between 103.7 and 105.24/32, inside the prior week's range. This week, the Bond is trending higher but it has potential for turning direction, vulnerable to selling. As the week begins, the T-bond is still climbing but when it turns, it could initially slip down to a (Sept) target of 103. Eventually, 99 will be reached and 97 or even 96, if the stock market launches a significant rally.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index resumed its downward trend. By the end of the week, it closed down (-1.65) at 104.23. The dollar index has been in a price correction, within a long-term, upward trend. The correction began as a sideways pattern in early October of 2000, responding to an overextended advance. Since January, the index has moved increasingly downward. This week, the Dollar is quite overextended on the down side and due for a snap back rally, up to an initial target of 111.70, 119.41, and 120.22.

The Euro-Currency index moved further up, last week, closing +.0230 higher, at 1.0135. The EC has been steadily rising, since the start of the year. The EC rate is now overextended and vulnerable; for a month, it has been rising on declining volume. A process of unwinding the overextended advance is overdue. This week, the EC's advance is due for a retracement, with lower targets of .99, .97, .9313 and potentially, lower.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved higher, last week. The CRB closed +2.28 higher, last week, at 213.95. This week begins with the CRB moving in an upward direction, a trend started in November of 2001.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept. -CO) market price continued to move higher, last week, ranging from $27 to $28.05. CO (Sept) closed +$.41 higher, at $27.84. This week, CO's price increase is now more vulnerable to back down, to the former, early stage of a downtrend. Lower targets await the (Sept. -CO) market at $25.72, $24.00 and $20.86.

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price moved moderately higher, last week, ranging from $.79 to $.82. The (Sept. -HU) market closed +$.0332 higher, at $.8089. This week, HU's price is now vulnerable to turn back, down. Lower targets await (Sept. HU) at $.7516, $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil price moving narrowly higher, last week, ranging from $.697 to $.716. The (Sept) market closed -$.0037 lower, at $.7086. This week, the HO market is vulnerable to reverse its trend and move down, toward targets of (Sept) $.6637, $.60 and $.56.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas market held its prior week's low and moved up last week, as forecast in Plazaview. NG-Sept ranged from $2.82 to $3.028, closing +$.114 higher for the week, at $2.944. This week, the NG market resumes trading in its downward trend but as with last week, it is due for a rally. There is the potential for a price rise, back up to $3.147 and $3.273. Except for the potential to temporarily rise as indicated, the (Sept. -NG) price is then on track, proceeding lower, to this cycle's final destinations of $2.625 and $2.607.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-29-2002 (S&P starts at 852.84)

Last week, the U.S. stock markets continued to move down but recovered later in the week. As forecast in Plazaview, the markets were due for a rally and the Dow ended the week higher, above the forecast retracement target at 8236. The Dow Industrials closed the week at 8264.39. The S&P closed higher for the week, at 852.84. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was slightly improved but down by (-)41.95%.

This week, the long term trend (beyond the current market correction) is up, the intermediate trend is down but the stock markets are still due for a rally. The major indices have reached the Plazaview forecasted, near term objectives to the down side. Now, individual components of the indices have lower targets and this will limit and delay full recovery of the major indices. General Electric (GE) is an example, with a remaining lower target of $21.30. The market indices are currently oversold and a rally is due but the correction cycle of March 2000, has not yet ended. With potential of an upward turn of the market, volatility will overshadow the markets again, this week. A settling of expected selling and a gradual, upward progress is needed to remove the risk of a continued and further market correction. With all this cross-current, this week looks to be volatile but a higher end of week closing for the major indices has good potential.

Last week, the (Sept) T-bond closed higher, at 105.29. The (Sept) Bond traded between 105.9 and 107.26/32, above the prior week's range. As forecast in Plazaview, the market rallied but it was vulnerable to selling and the gain was not sustained. This week, the Bond is still trending higher but it has more potential for turning direction; it is more vulnerable to selling. As the week begins, the T-bond is still climbing but when it turns, it could initially slip down to a (Sept) target of 105.5 and 103. Eventually, 99 will be reached and 97 or even 96, if the stock market launches a significant rally.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index was recovering, as forecast in Plazaview, from its downward trend. By the end of the week, it closed up (+2.45) at 106.68. The dollar index remains in a downward price correction, within a long-term, upward trend. The correction began as a sideways pattern in early October of 2000, responding to an overextended advance. Since January, the index has moved increasingly downward. This week, the Dollar is still quite overextended on the down side and due for a another snap-back rally, up to an initial target of 111.70, eventually 119.41, and 120.22.

The Euro-Currency index moved down, last week, as forecast in Plazaview, closing (-).0328 lower, at .9807. The EC has been steadily rising, since the start of the year. The EC rate is now overextended and vulnerable; for a month, it had been rising on declining volume. A process of unwinding the overextended advance is overdue. This week, the EC's advance is due for a further retracement, with lower targets of .99, .97, .9313 and potentially, lower.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved lower, last week. The CRB closed (-)4.30 lower, last week, at 209.65. This week begins with the CRB still moving in an upward direction, a trend started in November of 2001.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept. -CO) market price dropped down, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. CO trading ranged from $26.99 to $26.17. CO (Sept) closed -$1.30 lower, at $26.54. This week, CO's price increase is still more vulnerable to back down, to the former, early stage of a downtrend. The top is not settled and a brief rally could take CO back up to 27.84. Lower targets await the (Sept. -CO) market at $25.72, $24.00 and $20.86.

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price moved down, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The price ranged from $.7846 to $.7661. The (Sept. -HU) market closed -$.0309 lower, at $.778. This week, HU's price is still vulnerable to going lower but the top is not settled and a brief rally could take it back up to $.8089. Lower targets await (Sept. HU) at $.7516, $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil price moved down, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The price ranged from $.685 to $.6677. The (Sept) market closed -$.0307 lower, at $.6779. This week, the HO market is vulnerable to sellers moving the price down, toward targets of (Sept) $.6637, $.60 and $.56. But, the top is not settled and a brief rally could take the price higher, to $.7086.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas market rallied last week as forecast in Plazaview but gave back some of its advance and closed -$.053, at $2.891. The price was contained and ranged from $2.83 to $3.068. This week, the NG market resumes trading in its downward trend but as with last week, it is due for a rally. There is a good potential for a price rise, back up to $3.147 and $3.273. Except for the potential to temporarily rise as indicated, the (Sept. -NG) price is then on track, proceeding lower, to this cycle's final destinations of $2.625 and $2.607.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-5-2002 (S&P starts at 864.24)

Last week, the U.S. stock markets were volatile and finished higher, as forecast in Plazaview. The markets were due for a rally and the Dow gained nearly 400 points on Monday but retraced, downward for the remainder of the week. The Dow ended higher for the week, at 8313.13, still above Plazaview's retracement target of 8236. The S&P traded between 853.95 and 911.64, closing higher for the week, at 864.24. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was improved but down by (-)41.18%.

This week, the long term trend (beyond the current market correction) is up, the intermediate trend is down but the stock markets are due for another rally. The major indices have reached the Plazaview forecasted, near term objectives to the down side and are holding. Individual components of the indices have unmet targets at lower levels and this will limit the full recovery of the major indices. General Electric (GE) is an example, with a remaining lower target of $21.30. The market indices are currently oversold and another rally is due but the correction cycle of March 2000, has not yet ended. With potential of an upward turn of the market, volatility will overshadow the markets again, this week. A settling of expected selling and gradual, upward progress is needed to remove the risk of a continued and further market correction. With all that cross-current, this week looks to be less volatile. Another end of week advance at the closing for the major indices has good potential.

Last week, the (Sept) T-bond closed higher, at 107.23. The (Sept) Bond traded between 104.10 and 107.24/32, below the prior week's range. As forecast in Plazaview, the market hit the lower target of 105.5 and rallied higher; but, it did not become vulnerable to selling and the gain was sustained. This week, the Bond is likely to fall under selling pressure. As the week begins, the T-bond is ready to turn down and when it turns, it could initially slip down to a (Sept) target of 105.5 (again) and 103. Eventually, 99 will be reached and 97 or even 96, if the stock market launches a significant rally.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index was holding in a narrow pattern; recovering, as forecast in Plazaview, from its downward trend. By the end of the week, it closed nearly unchanged (-.03) at 106.65. The dollar index remains in a downward price correction, within a long-term, upward trend. The correction began as a sideways pattern in early October of 2000, responding to an overextended advance. Since January, the index has moved increasingly downward. This week, the Dollar is still overextended on the down side and due for a another snap-back rally, up to an initial target of 111.70, eventually 119.41, and 120.22.

The Euro-Currency index moved in a narrow range, last week, closing (+).0062 higher, at .9869. The EC has been steadily rising, since the start of the year. The EC rate is still overextended and will be vulnerable on expected attempts to rally. A process of unwinding the overextended advance is overdue as the market determines which way to go. This week, the EC's advance is due for a further retracement, with lower targets of .99, .97, .9313 and potentially, lower.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved higher, last week. The CRB closed (+).74 higher, last week, at 210.39. This week begins with the CRB still moving in an upward direction, a trend started in November of 2001.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept. -CO) market price recovered, last week. As forecast in Plazaview, CO's price top is not settled and a brief rally was expected. Trading ranged from $26.00 to $27.52. CO (Sept) closed +$.30 higher, at $26.84. This week, CO's price increase is still more vulnerable to back down, to the former, early stage of a downtrend, except that the top has not been settled.. With the top unsettled, another brief rally could take CO back up and marginally beyond $27.84. After that, lower targets will await the (Sept. -CO) $25.72, $24.00 and $20.86.

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price moved up but it was met by sellers, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept) price hit the Plazaview target of $.7516, and the market ranged from $.748 to $.806. The (Sept. -HU) market closed lower, at $.7748. This week, HU's price is still vulnerable to going lower but the top is not settled and a brief rally could take it back up to $.8089. Lower targets await (Sept. HU) at $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil price moved up and down, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The price ranged from $.656 to $.702. The (Sept) market closed -$.0307 lower, at $.6779. This week, the HO market is vulnerable to sellers moving the price down, toward targets of (Sept) $.6637, $.60 and $.56. But, the top is not settled and a brief rally could take the price higher, to $.7086.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas market temporarily rallied last week, as forecast in Plazaview, but it gave back all of that advance, to close -$.033, at $2.858. Last week's (Sept) price ranged from $2.99 to $2.825. This week, the NG market resumes trading within its downward trend but as with last week, it is due for a bounce-back rally. The potential for a price rise is to targets of $3.147 and $3.273. Except for the interim potential for a rally as indicated, the (Sept. -NG) price is still in a downtrend, to destinations of $2.625 and $2.607.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-12-2002 (S&P starts at 908.64)

The U.S. stock markets were volatile and finished higher last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The S&P traded between 833.44 and 913.95, closing higher for the week, at 908.64. By the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was improved but down by (-) 38.19%.

This week, the long term trend (beyond the current market correction) continues to be up. The intermediate trend is down but the U. S. stock markets have entered a temporary rebound phase, with good potential to advance higher. The major indices have reached Plazaview's forecasted, near term objectives to the down side and they have found a temporary bottom. But, individual components of the indices have still unmet targets at lower levels and this will limit the full recovery of the major indices. Although the market indices are currently in a rebounding phase, the downward correction cycle of March 2000, has not yet ended.

The (Sept) T-bond closed higher, last week, at 108.20. The (Sept) Bond was under selling pressure for part of the week but it rallied, trading between 106.23 and 108.25/32, above the prior week's range. This week, the Bond is overdue to begin a reverse of direction and fall under new selling pressure. A top price is not yet in place but the T-bond is ready to make an initial turn, downward. It will be heading for a (US-Sept) target of 105.5 (again) and 103. Eventually, 99 will be reached and 97 or even 96, if the stock market launches a significant rally.

The U.S. dollar's cash index continued to rise, last week, in a narrow pattern; recovering, as forecast in Plazaview, from its recent down trend. By the end of the week, it closed higher (+1.53) at 108.18. The dollar index is in a downward price correction, within a long-term, upward trend. The correction began as a sideways pattern in early October of 2000, responding to an overextended advance. Since January, the index had moved increasingly downward. This week, the Dollar is still overextended on the down side and due for a another rebound, heading toward an initial target of 111.70, eventually 119.41 and 120.22.

The Euro-Currency index moved down, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The EC cash index closed (-).0175 lower, at .9694. The EC had been steadily rising, since the start of the year. The EC is now vulnerable on expected attempts to rally. A process of gradually unwinding the overextended advance is overdue as the market determines which way to go. This week, the EC's advance is due for a further retracement, with lower targets of .9313 and lower.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved higher, last week. The CRB closed (+)1.43 higher, last week, at 211.82. This week begins with the CRB still moving in an upward direction, a trend started in November of 2001.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept. -CO) market price was static, last week. CO-Sept., traded inside the prior week's range; trading ranged from $26.25 to $27.38. CO (Sept) closed marginally (+$.02) higher, at $26.86. This week, CO's price increase is still more vulnerable to back down, to the former, early stage of a downtrend, except that as forecast in Plazaview, CO's price top is not settled and a brief rally is expected. With the top unsettled, a brief rally could take CO-Sept. back up to $27.84. After that, lower targets await the Sept.-CO at $25.72, $24.00 and $20.86.

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price was subdued last week, and traded lower as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept) price ranged between $.7792 and $.744, the market closed (-$.0198) lower, at $.755. This week, HU's price is still vulnerable to moving lower but the top may be unsettled and there is potential for a brief rally to take it back up to $.8089. Lower targets await (Sept. HU) at $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil price moved lower, last week, hitting the $.6637 target, as forecast in Plazaview, but it recovered to nearly unchanged. The price ranged from $.68 to $.6565. The (Sept) market closed (+$.0061) fractionally higher, at $.6779. This week, the HO market remains vulnerable to sellers as the market is moving down, toward targets of (Sept) $.60 and $.56. But, the top is not settled and a brief rally could take the price higher, to $.7086.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas market resumed its downward trend last week, as forecast in Plazaview, but an overdue rally did not emerge. The market traded from $2.86 to $2.64 and closed (-$.097) lower, at $2.761. This week, the NG market resumes trading within its downward trend but as with last week, it is due for a bounce-back rally. The potential for a price rise is now delayed while the market is near Plazaview's lower targets of $2.625 and $2.607. After that, higher targets are at $3.147, $3.273 and $3.755. Except for the immediate potential of an initial rebound, as indicated, the NG price is still in a downtrend.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-19-2002 (S&P starts at 928.77)

The U.S. stock markets continued to be volatile and rebounded higher, by the end of last week, all as forecast in Plazaview. The S&P traded between 876.20 and 935.38, closing higher for the week, at 928.77. By the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was improved but down by (-)36.79%.

This week, the long term trend (beyond the current market correction) continues to be up. The intermediate trend is still down but the U. S. stock markets are in the fourth week of a temporary rebound. There is good potential to advance higher, with volatility. The major indices have reached Plazaview's forecasted, near term objectives to the down side and they have found a temporary bottom. But, individual components of the major indices have still unmet targets at lower levels as described in prior forecasts. These individual companies' lower targets will limit a recovery of the major indices. The market indices are currently in a rebounding phase; the downward correction cycle of March 2000, has not yet ended.

The (Sept) T-bond closed slightly lower, last week, at 108.18. The (Sept) Bond failed to hold a rally up to 112.12 and fell under selling pressure. Trading ranged between 108.13 and 112.12/32. This week, the Bond is still overdue to begin a reverse of direction and move lower under new selling pressure. A top price is not yet in place but the T-bond is ready to make an initial turn, downward. It will be heading for an (US-Sept) target of 105.5 (again) and 103. Eventually, 99 will be reached and 97 or even 96, if the stock market launches a significant rally.

The U.S. dollar's cash index retraced some of its recent advance, last week. By the end of the week, it closed lower (-1.73) at 106.45. This week, the dollar index is in a rebounding phase, within a downward price correction cycle, within a long-term, upward trend. The correction cycle began as a sideways pattern in early October of 2000, responding to an overextended advance. Since January, the index had moved increasingly downward. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward, out of an oversold condition. The current rebounding phase is headed toward an initial target of 111.70, eventually 119.41 and 120.22.

The Euro-Currency index retraced upward, last week on an expected attempt to rally, as forecast in Plazaview. The EC cash index closed (+).0107 higher, at .9801. The EC had been steadily rising, since January of this year. Since July, it has turned down, correcting an overextended advance. The EC is now vulnerable on expected attempts to rally. A process of gradually unwinding the overextended advance is overdue but the market is seeking which way to go. This week, the EC's advance is due for a return to lower retracement, with lower targets of .9313 and below.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved higher, last week. The CRB closed (+)4.21 higher, last week, at 216.03. This week begins with the CRB still moving in an upward direction, a trend started in November of 2001.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept -CO) price rallied last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The CO-Sept. ranged from $26.48 to $29.45, hitting the forecast target of $27.48 and closing higher, at $29.33. This week, CO's price top is not in place and volatility will result as last week's rally will be tested. Some more weeks of up and down movement will test the top price. Lower targets await the Sept.-CO, initially at $25.72, and then, $24.00 and $20.86.

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price rallied last week, as forecast in Plazaview but it was subdued in comparison with crude oil. The (Sept) price ranged from $.7455 to $.804 and the market closed higher, at $.7819. This week, HU's price is still vulnerable to moving lower but the top is unsettled and there is potential for another rally to take it back up to $.8089. Lower targets await the (Sept.- HU) at $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil price rallied last week, exceeding the Plazaview-forecast target of $.7086. The price ranged from $.662 to $.736 and the (Sept -HO) market closed higher, at $.7345. This week, the HO market's advanced price is now vulnerable to initial selling. The market will eventually move down, toward targets of (Sept) $.65, $.60 and $.56.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas price rallied last week, hitting the initial target of $3.147, as forecast in Plazaview. The market traded from $2.76 to $3.165 and closed (+$.388) higher, at $3.149. This week, the NG market resumes trading within its downward trend but it is at a point of potentially turning direction, higher. The potential for a turn of direction will be set in place if more buying and an advance are sustained by the end of this week. Otherwise, the market will fail at this critical level, retrace last week's gains and eventually retest its now distant base, with lower targets of $2.625 and $2.607. Higher targets are at $3.273 and $3.755.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-26-2002 (S&P starts at 940.86)

The U.S. stock markets continued to advance in a still volatile trading environment. By the end of last week, as forecast in Plazaview the U S stock market indices moved higher on good potential. The S&P traded between 927.21 and 965., closing higher for the week, at 940.86. By the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was improved for the fourth week but still down by (-)35.96%.

This week, the long term trend (beyond the current market correction) continues to be up. The intermediate trend is still down but the U. S. stock markets are in the fifth week of a temporary rebound. The markets will be faced with greater resistance at the start of the week. Last week's market decline (on Friday) was indicative of buyers growing wary and sellers ready to take back recent gains. There is greater potential for volatility as buyers and sellers test (S&P) 940 to 966. The major indices have a temporary bottom and this is likely to be revisited as individual components of the major indices have unmet targets at lower levels, as described in prior forecasts. These individual companies' lower targets will limit the current advance of the major indices. While the market indices are currently in a rebounding phase; the downward correction cycle of March 2000, has not yet ended.

The (Sept) T-bond closed higher, last week, at 109.30. The (Sept) Bond failed to match the prior week's advance and remained subdued for the week. Trading ranged between 108.8 and 110.9/32. This week, the Bond is still overdue to begin a reverse of direction and move lower, under new selling pressure. A top price is not yet in place but the T-bond is ready to make an initial turn, downward. It will be heading for an (US-Sept) target of 105.5 (again) and 103. Eventually, 99 will be reached and 97 or even 96, if the stock market continues to rally.

The U.S. dollar's cash index resumed an upward bias last week, as forecast in Plazaview. By the end of the week, it closed higher (+1.52) at 107.97. This week, the dollar index remains in a rebounding phase, within a downward price correction cycle, within a long-term, upward trend. The correction cycle began as a sideways pattern in early October of 2000, responding to an overextended advance. Since January, the index had moved increasingly downward. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward, out of an oversold condition. The current rebound phase is not yet trending but it will, eventually, toward an initial target of 111.70, 119.41 and 120.22.

The Euro-Currency index resumed downward movement, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The EC cash index closed only (-).007 lower, at .9731 but the direction is as it will be. The EC had been steadily rising, since January of this year. Since July, it has turned down, correcting an overextended advance. The EC is now vulnerable on expected attempts to rally. A process of gradually unwinding the overextended advance is overdue but the market is seeking direction. This week, the EC's advance is due for a return to lower retracement. Lower targets are at .9313 and below.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved marginally lower, last week. The CRB closed (-).93 lower, last week, at 215.10. This week begins with the CRB still moving in an upward direction, a trend started in November of 2001.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept -CO) price rallied last week, testing the top price as forecast in Plazaview. The CO-Sept. ranged from $29.07 to $30.32, closing higher, at $30.11. This week, CO's price top is not in place but the recent advance looks overextended. The top price is not established but a pull-back is likely. Some more weeks of up and down movement will test the top price. Lower targets await the Sept.-CO, initially at $25.72, and then, $24.00 and $20.86.

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price increased last week and the market hit the target of $.8089, as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept) price ranged from $.777 to $.817 and the market closed marginally higher, at $.7952. This week, HU's price has limited potential to move higher. It has been gradually moving sideways for several weeks but the top price is unsettled and there is potential for another failing rally. Lower targets await the (Sept.- HU) at $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil price rallied last week, and failed to hold most of its advance as forecast in Plazaview. The price ranged from $.726 to $.762 and the (Sept -HO) market closed marginally higher, at $.739. This week, the HO market's advanced price is vulnerable to initial selling. The market will eventually move down, toward targets of (Sept) $.65, $.60 and $.56. The end of summer and ‘media' speculation of a conflict in the Middle-East keeps buyers with open interest in this and the CO market.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas price rallied last week, hitting an additional target of $3.273, as forecast in Plazaview. The market traded from $3.055 to $3.53 and closed (+$.338) higher, at $3.487. This week, due to last week's advance, the NG market is no longer constrained by a downward trend. NG is now rising on a two week event, so far. This event will require additional buying action to prevent a fall-back and test of its origin. A retracement could take this market back down but as of last week, it now has new legs to rally for higher prices. Another higher target is waiting at $3.755.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-2-2002 (S&P starts at 916.07)

The U.S. stock markets, last week, quickly failed to continue the prior five weeks' advance. As forecast in Plazaview, the markets were faced with greater resistance at the start of the week and moved down. In a still volatile trading environment, the market moved down as expected and then, recovered some of the losses. The S&P traded between 955.82 and 903.33, closing lower for the week, at 916.07. By the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was improved but still down by (-)37.65%.

This week, the long term trend (beyond the current market correction) continues to be up. The intermediate trend is still down. As previously described, the U.S. stock markets have been in a temporary rebound but this week, again, overhead resistance will be an obstacle to overcome. There is great potential for volatility as buyers attempt to regain the upward range of (S&P) 940 to 966. The major indices set a temporary bottom in the week of July 19, at (S&P) 847.75. That level is likely to be revisited before the end of this correction may begin. As previously described in Plazaview, individual components of the major indices still have unmet targets at lower levels. These individual companies' unmet targets will limit the current advance of the major indices. The downward correction cycle of March 2000, has not yet ended.

The (Sept) T-bond closed higher, last week, at 110.28. The (Sept) Bond moved up but failed to advance significantly for the week. Trading ranged between 108.30 and 111.4/32. This week, the Bond is overdue to begin a reverse of direction and move lower, under new selling pressure. A top price is not yet in place but the T-bond is ready to make an initial turn, downward. It will be heading for an (US-Sept) target of 105.5 (again) and 103. Eventually, 99 will be reached and 97 or even 96, but only if the stock market resumes its recent bounce.

The U.S. dollar's cash index remained in a narrow range last week. By the end of the week, it closed lower (-.99) at 106.98. This week, the dollar index remains oversold, poised for another rebound from its recent correction. It is in a long-term, upward trend. The correction cycle began as a sideways pattern in early October of 2000, responding to an overextended advance. Since January, the index had moved increasingly downward. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward, out of an oversold condition. The current rebound phase is not yet trending but it will, eventually returning to an initial target of 111.70 and higher, to 119.41 and 120.22.

The Euro-Currency index moved in a narrow range last week and closed higher. The EC cash index closed (+.0095) higher, at .9826. The EC had been steadily rising, since January of this year. Since July, it has turned down, correcting an overextended advance. The EC is now vulnerable on expected attempts to rally. A process of gradually unwinding the overextended advance is overdue but the market is hesitating, seeking direction from other markets. This week, the EC's advance is poised for a retracement. Lower targets wait at .9313 and below.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved up, last week. The CRB closed (+)4.10 higher, at 219.20. This week begins with the CRB continuing in an upward direction, a trend started in November of 2001.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept -CO) price rallied last week, overextending the price. The CO-Sept. ranged from $29.07 to $30.32, closing higher, at $30.11. This week, CO's price top is not in place but the recent advance is overextended. A pull-back is more likely this week as a further advance will be more vulnerable to new selling action. Some weeks of up and down movement will probe for the top price. Lower targets await the Sept.-CO, initially at $25.72, and then, $24.00 and $20.86.

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price moved higher last week. The advance was limited as forecast in Plazaview. The market retraced some of the advance by the end of the week. The (Sept) price ranged from $.787 to $.834 and the market closed higher, at $.8142. This week, HU's price has less potential to advance, it is already vulnerable to sellers. HU has been gradually moving sideways for several weeks, gradually forming a price top. Lower targets await the (Sept.- HU) at $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil price moved higher last week, remaining in a narrow range. The price ranged from $.738 to $.76 and the (Sept -HO) market closed marginally higher, at $.7482. This week, the HO market's price is due for selling action. The market has not found a price top but eventually, it will move down, toward targets of (Sept) $.65, $.60 and $.56. The approaching end of summer and further conflict in the Middle-East keeps buyers with open interest in this and the CO market, moving the price in a sideways direction.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas price rallied last week and then it fell back. The market traded from $3.643 to $3.26 and closed (-$.199) lower, at $3.288. NG has been attempting to build an upward trend but the prior two weeks' moved the market too far, too quick. Another retracement could take this market back down but its overall movement has new legs to rally for higher prices. An upper target is at $3.755.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-9-2002 (S&P starts at 893.92)

The U.S. stock markets were moved down last week. As forecast in Plazaview, overhead resistance for the indices was an obstacle and still unmet lower targets of major components of those indices, all contributed to a falling market. In a still volatile trading environment, the market recovered some of its losses by the end of the week. The S&P traded between 916.07 and 870.50, closing lower for the week, at 893.92. By the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved but still down by (-)39.16%.

This week, the long term trend (beyond the current market correction) continues to be up but the intermediate trend is still down. The U.S. stock markets have been in a temporary rebound but that is likely to continue failing, the market will continue retracing its recent advance, returning to (S&P 500) 847.75. There is good potential for volatility as buyers may be drawn back into the market by an overflow of capital in an eventually declining Bond market. Any positive fundamental news will trigger buying and an attempt to regain the upward range of (S&P) 940 to 966. As previously described in Plazaview, individual components of the major indices still have unmet targets at lower levels. Those components will limit the current market's attempts to advance. The downward correction cycle of March 2000, has not yet ended.

Beginning this week, Plazaview's forecast continuity will be improved by a change of focus to the cash T-bond market, rather than the ever-expiring futures contract.

Last week, the cash T-bond rallied higher but gave back some of its advance, to close at 107.28. The Bond further extended an already overextended advance. Trading ranged between 106.26 and 109.19/32. This week, it is very likely that the Bond will retrace some of its advance and move back down to at least 106.27. The top price is not in place but the Bond is overdue to begin a reverse of direction as an initial turn, downward.

The U.S. dollar's cash index moved lower for most of last week but recovered almost all by the end of the week, remaining in a narrow range. By the end of the week, it closed only slightly lower (-.14) at 106.84. This week, the dollar index remains oversold, still poised to rebound. The dollar is in a long-term, upward trend. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward, from an oversold condition. The current rebound phase is delayed, not yet trending higher but eventually it will return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. A falling Bond and rising yield rate may be needed to get the dollar moving.

The Euro-Currency index moved up for most of last week but turned down at week's end. As forecast in Plazaview, the EC is vulnerable on expected attempts to rally. The EC ranged between 1.0005 and .9805, closing (-.0007) lower at .9819 last week. The EC had been steadily rising, since January of this year. Since July, it has turned down, beginning to correct an overextended advance. A gradual unwinding of the overextended price advance is overdue but the market is still hesitating, waiting for other markets, including the Bond and CO. While the EC remains vulnerable on expected attempts to rally, there is currently diminishing potential for a failing rally to 1.10151. This week, the EC's January advance remains poised for lower targets, beginning at .9313.

As forecast in Plazaview, the comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index continued moving up, last week. The CRB closed (+)4.93 higher, at 224.13. This week begins with the CRB continuing in an upward direction, a trend started in November of 2001. As has been forecast in Plazaview; the CRB is moving higher; 251 is the likely destination.

Beginning with this week, our energy market forecast is refocused to the cash markets. This change improves forecast continuity, without the breaks of expiring futures contracts.

Crude oil's (NY-CO) price moved down on a pull-back, as forecast in Plazaview but it partially recovered last week. It ranged from $27.78 to $28.98 and closed at the top of its range, $28.98. This week, CO's price is trending higher and it is likely to rally again, to a target of $29.93. On an expanding range to the downside, it would go to $26.88. More weeks of up and down movement will continue to probe for a top price. Eventually, lower targets await CO, initially at $26.88 and then, $25.53.

The (NY-HU) gasoline market price moved down last week. As forecast in Plazaview, HU had less potential to advance, it was already vulnerable to sellers. HU ranged from $.7315 to $.7579, recovering most of its loss for the week. It closed at the top of the week's range, $.7579. This week, HU's price has potential for a rally, back up to $.7765. Such an advance will be short-lived, vulnerable to sellers. HU has been gradually moving sideways for several weeks but it is trending lower from a price top. Now distant, lower prices await the NY- HU at $.60 and $.51.

The (NY-HO) heating oil price moved down but backed-up last week, ranging from $.7169 to $.7594. HO closed at the top of the week's range, $.7594. This week, the HO market's price is at the upper level of its present range. The market has not found a price top and it can move higher but already at the upper end of its current range, a temporary pull-back could take it lower, to targets of $.65 and $.5975. The approaching end of summer and the Middle-East conflict sustains buyers in HO and the CO market, holding the price at presently advanced levels.

The (NY-NG) natural gas price moved down last week, in a narrow range of $3.205 to $3.105 and rallied back up to the top of the week's range, closing at $3.205. NG is moving higher and this week's nearest target is $3.24. The next higher target may not be reached this week, it is a more distant, $3.485. Further out, NG may go to $3.68 as the current trend is up and in motion. There is downside risk of only a temporary retracement, lower targets are $3.10 and $2.83.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-16-2002 (S&P starts at 889.81)

The U.S. stock markets moved slightly up, last week, mostly hovering in and above the prior week's range. The S&P traded between 877.05 and 924.02, closing lower for the week, at 889.81. By the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved but still down by -39.44%.

This week, the long term trend (beyond the current market correction) continues to be up but the intermediate trend is still down. The U.S. stock markets will continue retracing its recent advance, returning to (S&P 500) 847.75. There is good potential for sudden volatility as buyers may be drawn back to the stock market by an overabundance of capital in the Bond market. Any positive fundamental news will trigger buying and an attempt to regain the upward range of (S&P) 940 to 966. As previously described in Plazaview, individual components of the major indices still have unmet targets at lower levels and that is a sure and negative impediment. Those components will limit the current market's attempts to advance. The downward correction cycle of March 2000, has not yet ended.

Last week, the cash T-bond retraced some of its prior advance as forecast in Plazaview but remained inside the prior week's range, closing near the top of its range, at 109.11. Trading ranged between 106.30 and 109.21/32. This week, it is very likely that the Bond will again retrace some of its advance and move back down to at least 106.27. The top price is not in place but the Bond is overdue to begin a reverse of direction as an initial turn, downward.

The U.S. dollar's cash index moved higher as forecast in Plazaview but it also remained in a narrow range. By the end of the week, it closed up (+1.22), at 108.06. This week, the dollar index remains oversold, still poised to rebound. The dollar is in a long-term, upward trend. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward, from an oversold condition. The current rebound phase is delayed, not yet trending higher but eventually it will return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. A falling Bond and rising yield rate may be needed to get the dollar moving.

The Euro-Currency index moved down by the end of last week. As forecast in Plazaview, the EC is vulnerable on expected attempts to rally. The EC ranged between 1.00 and .9704, closing (-.0109) lower at .9710 last week. The EC had been steadily rising since January of this year. Since July, it has turned down, beginning to correct an overextended advance. A gradual unwinding of the overextended price advance is overdue but the market is still hesitating, waiting for other markets, including the Bond and CO. While the EC remains vulnerable on expected attempts to rally, there is currently diminishing potential for a failing rally to 1.10151. This week, the EC's January advance remains poised for lower targets, beginning at .9313.

As forecast in Plazaview, the comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index continued moving up, last week. The CRB closed (+)2.95 higher, at 227.08. This week begins with the CRB continuing in an upward direction, a trend started in November of 2001. As forecast in Plazaview, the CRB is moving higher; 251 is the likely destination.

Crude oil's (NY-CO) December price moved slightly higher. It closed near the top of its range, at $29.76. This week, CO's price is trending higher but it is due for a price setback before advancing further. On an expanding range to the downside, the cash market would go to $26.88. More weeks of up and down movement will continue to probe for a top price. Eventually, lower targets await cash-CO, initially at $26.88 and then, $25.53.

The (NY-HU) gasoline market price moved higher, last week on a potential to rally as forecast in Plazaview. The December price closed up, at $.7936. This week, HU's price has less potential for a rally and should first retrace, lower, to the cash market's level of $.7765. Now distant, lower prices await the NY- HU cash market at $.60 and $.51.

The (NY-HO) heating oil price moved slightly higher last week. The December HO closed near the top of the week's range, at $.8024. This week, the HO market's price is at the upper level of its present range and due for a pull back. The market has not found a price top and it can move higher but it is currently well advanced and needs to retrace some of its gains. A temporary pull-back could take it lower, to cash market targets of $.65 and $.5975. The approaching end of summer and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains buyers in HO and the CO market, holding the price at currently advanced levels.

The (NY-NG) natural gas price moved up last week as forecast in Plazaview. The December contract closed higher, at $4.11. This week, NG begins with overhead resistance as an immediate obstacle and a pull back may result. NG will eventually prevail over that barrier and continue to move higher. There is some downside risk of a temporary retracement, to lower cash market targets of $3.10 and $2.83.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-23-2002 (S&P starts at 845.39)

The U.S. stock markets moved up at first but finished down, last week, below the prior week's range. The S&P traded up to 902.68 and down to 839.09, closing lower for the week, at 845.39. By the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was still down by -42.46%.

This week, the long term trend (beyond the current market correction) continues to be up but the intermediate trend is still down. The U.S. stock market completed the retracement of its recent advance, last week, returning to the (S&P 500) 847.75 target, as forecast in Plazaview. There still remains incomplete trading at lower levels for component companies of the major indices but the market is now at a point of good potential for upward volatility. Buyers may be drawn back to the stock market by an overabundance of capital in the Bond market and a potentially oversold stock market. Positive fundamental news events are likely to trigger buying and an attempt to regain the upward range of (S&P) 940 to 966. As previously described in Plazaview, individual components of the major indices still have unmet targets at lower levels and that is a drawback. Those components will restrict the current market potential for an advance. The downward correction cycle of March 2000, is still in effect.

Last week, the cash T-bond retraced only a small range and moved higher but was contained, narrowly. Last week's range was down to 108.21 and up to 110.17, closing only 15/32 higher, at 109.26. This week begins with the Bond overdue for a decline, with potential risk much greater to the down side. Cash has moved out of the stock market and into the Bond market, which is ready to decline on renewed stock market interest. The T-bond will soon begin to reverse its upward direction, retrace some of its advance and move back down to at least 106.27. The top price is not in place but the Bond is overdue for initial selling.

The U.S. dollar's cash index closed slightly down, last week, remaining in a narrow range. By the end of the week, it closed lower (-.53), at 107.53. This week, the dollar index remains poised to rebound. The dollar is in a long-term, upward trend. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward, from an oversold condition. The current rebound phase is delayed, not yet trending higher but eventually, it will return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. A falling Bond and rising yield rate may be needed to get the dollar moving.

The Euro-Currency index moved down to .961 and up to .9876; by the end of last week, it closed up, at .9819. The EC had been steadily rising since January of this year. In July, it turned down, beginning to correct an overextended advance but since then, it has moved sideways. A gradual unwinding of the overextended price advance is overdue but the market is still hesitating, after six weeks, waiting for other markets, including the Bond and CO. While the EC continues moving sideways, there is alternating potential for a final rally, back up to 1.10151. This week, the EC has a greater bias toward lower targets, beginning at .9313.

As forecast in Plazaview, the comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index is in upward motion. Last week, the CRB stopped its advance and closed only (-.21) lower, at 226.87. This week begins with the CRB still in an upward direction, a trend started in November of 2001, but a pull back, for a few weeks, has increasing potential. As forecast in Plazaview, the CRB is eventually moving higher; 251 is the likely destination.

Crude oil's (NY-CO) December price was contained, last week, within and slightly below the prior week's range. It closed marginally lower, at $29.68. This week, CO's price is trending higher but it is due for a price setback before advancing further. On an expanding range to the downside, the cash market would go to $26.88. More weeks of up and down movement will continue to probe for a top price. Eventually, lower targets await cash-CO, initially at $26.88 and then, $25.53.

The (NY-HU) gasoline market price moved down, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The December price recovered most of the week's decline and closed (-.0084) lower, at $.7852. This week, HU's price has some potential for a brief rally, back up to $.7936. HU is seeking a top price above but near this area and the market will eventually retrace, lower, to the cash market's level of $.7765. Now distant, lower prices await the NY- HU cash market at $.60 and $.51.

The (NY-HO) heating oil price moved down, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The December HO recovered much of the week's decline and by the end of the week, it closed nearly unchanged (-$.0020), at $.8004. This week, the HO market's price is at the upper level of its present range and still due for a pull back. The market has not found a price top but it is well advanced and primed to retrace some of its gains. A temporary pull-back could take it lower, to cash market targets of $.65 and $.5975. The approaching end of summer and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains buyers in HO and the CO market, holding the price at currently advanced levels.

The (NY-NG) natural gas price moved higher, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The December contract closed +$.067 higher, at $4.177. This week, NG begins in a well advanced and condition and a price retreat is expected on a further advance. There is further upside potential but NG may find overhead resistance this week and pull-back. It has not topped out and eventually, it will move higher. The downside risk of a temporary retracement is to lower cash market targets of $3.10 and $2.83.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-30-2002 (S&P starts at 827.37)

The U.S. stock markets moved down at the start of last week but turned upwardly volatile as forecast in Plazaview. The S&P traded down to 817.38 and up to 856.6, closing lower for the week, at 827.37. By the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was down by -43.69%.

This week, the long term trend (beyond the current market correction) continues to be up, while the intermediate trend is still down. The U.S. stock market has completed the Plazaview forecasted retracement of its most recent advance. Now, the market has good potential to build support at the current level of (S&P 500) 825 to 850. The selling trend has not yet ended but it is ready for a pause and a rally, higher. The market is now at a level of potential for upward volatility. Buyers may be drawn back to the stock market and fueled by excessive capital, parked in the Bond market. Beyond this week, positive media news developments are likely to develop, triggering stock buyers to regain the higher range of (S&P) 940 to 966. As previously described in Plazaview, individual components of the major indices have unmet targets at lower levels. Those components are restricting the current market potential. The market is prime for a bounce but its downward correction cycle of March 2000, is still in effect.

Last week, the cash T-bond retraced only a small range and moved higher again. Last week's range was down to 109.5/32 and up to 112.4/32, closing 1.2/32 higher, at 110.26. This week begins with the Bond still overdue for a decline; potential risk is greater to the down side. Cash has moved out of the stock market and into the Bond market, it is highly vulnerable to sellers waiting for a renewed stock market opportunity. The T-bond will soon begin to reverse its upward direction, retrace some of its advance and move back down to at least 106.27. The top price is not in place but the Bond is highly overdue for initial selling.

The U.S. dollar's cash index traded in a narrow range of 107.03 to 108.02 and closed unchanged, last week, at 107.53. This week, the dollar index remains poised to rebound. The dollar is in a long-term, upward trend. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward, from an oversold condition. The current rebound phase is delayed, not yet trending higher but eventually, it will return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. A falling Bond and rising yield rate may be needed to get the dollar moving.

The Euro-Currency index moved in a narrowed range of .9859 to .973 last week; by the end of last week, it closed down (-.0015), at .9804. The EC had been steadily rising since January of this year. In July, it turned down, beginning to correct an overextended advance but since then, it has moved sideways. A gradual unwinding of the overextended price advance is overdue but after seven weeks, the market is still hesitating, waiting for other markets to drop, including the Bond and CO. While the EC continues moving sideways, there is dwindling potential to rally, back up to a target of 1.10151. This week, the EC has lower targets, beginning at .9313.

As forecast in Plazaview, the comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index is in upward motion. Last week, the CRB moved up and closed (+.20) higher, at 227.07. This week begins with the CRB still in an upward trend, started in November of 2001, but a pull back, for a few weeks, has increasing potential. As forecast in Plazaview, the CRB is eventually moving higher and 251 is the likely destination.

Crude oil's (NY-CO) December price popped up but remained in a narrow ($29.80 to 32.02) range last week. It closed marginally (+.60) higher, at $30.28. This week, CO's price is more vulnerable to selling. It is still trending higher but it is now due for a price setback, before advancing further. On an expanding range to the downside, the cash market would go to $26.88. More weeks of up and down movement will continue to probe for a top price. Eventually, lower targets await cash-CO, initially at $26.88 and then, $25.53.

The (NY-HU) gasoline market price remained in a narrow ($.787 to .8103) range last week but moved up to the ($.7936) target as forecast in Plazaview. The December price closed (+.0115) higher, at $.7967. This week, HU's price has greater vulnerability to sellers. HU is seeking a top price in this area and the price is ready to turn down. Now distant, lower prices await the NY- HU cash market at $.60 and $.51.

The (NY-HO) heating oil price moved higher but it ranged ($.8065 to $.8303) narrowly, last week. The December HO closed up +$.0184, at $.8188. This week, the HO market price is at the upper level of its current range, due for a pull back. The market has not found a price top but it is well advanced and primed to retrace some of its gains. A temporary pull-back could take it lower, to cash market targets of $.65 and $.5975. The approaching end of summer and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains buyers with open interest in HO and the CO market, holding the price at currently advanced levels.

The (NY-NG) natural gas price was volatile last week, ranging down to $3.98 and back up to test resistance at $4.373. The December contract closed +$.068 higher, at $4.245. NG begins this week in a well advanced condition and a price retreat is due. There is further upside potential but NG may retreat from overhead resistance and pull-back for a while. The price has not yet topped out and although it is due for a retracement, lower, it will recover to higher levels.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>