Plazaview.com

 Forecast Records - 2nd Qtr. of 2004

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-5-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the T-note yield rate closed much higher, at 4.14%. The T-bond yield rate did the same, closing higher for the week, at 4.972%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward but an interim rebound was expected.

This week continues the yield rate for the T-note and the T-bond in a primarily falling trend. But, the rates are still in a technically corrective rebound and more rate increase is expected. This increase is temporary. The primary trend has been down, since January of 2000. As forecast in Plazaview since August of 2003, yield rates have progressively declined from when the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13, 2000. The rate is slowly continuing, in a downward trend, to return near the June 2003 lows.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed lower for the week, at $85.47. As forecast in Plazaview, a minor correction for the T-note fund was expected.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually, since September of 2003, ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, as previously forecast, it is currently due for a minor correction. Another pull-back would move it to lower targets of $84.77, 83.95, 82.89 and less likely, $82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed lower for the week, at $86.71. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund was expected to pull-back, to lower targets.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, as it has since August of 2003, to a minimum target of $96. However, as previously forecast, the market has good potential for a pull-back, to lower range targets of $85.46, 84.22, and 83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (June futures) paused in its primarily rising trend and closed -3.2/32 lower, at 110-30/32. As forecast in Plazaview, short-term selling was expected.

This week, the (June) T-bond is primarily in a rising trend, toward June's upper level. But, it is also due for an interim correction of short-term selling. This correction began on 3/24 and continues this week. Distant, lower targets are at 106-14/32 and 104-7/32.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ recovered, to rise above the $36.00 level, potentially back to its (10/02) upward trend. The QQQ closed higher for the week, at $37.10.
This week, the QQQ is in an initial recovery, from its (since January ‘04) downtrend. Range bound, sideways trading may the next result. Since October of 2002, there was a rising trend, a break-out from the March 2000 decline. But, the S&P 500 is still within the negative influence of its March 2000, declining trend. If the last week's QQQ rally cannot hold its advance, a deeper correction still has potential to gradually bring it back down to $24.23.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed up, at 104.30. As forecast in Plazaview, the metals are in a rising trend, although, unsustainably steep and due for correction.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a long term, rising trend. The primary uptrend was established in the one-year period of Nov. 2000 - Nov. ‘01 and that remains in effect. However, since July of 2003, the market has been in an unsustainable, steep rise. Since January 2004, a downward correction has been in progress and these metals are likely to move downward and sideways for a while.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-12-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the T-note yield rate closed higher, at 4.197%. The T-bond yield rate did the same, closing higher for the week, at 5.035%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward but an interim rebound was expected.

This week continues the yield rate for the T-note and the T-bond in a primarily falling trend. This recent increase was temporary and potential to rise has greatly decreased. As forecast in Plazaview since August of 2003, yield rates have progressively declined from when the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3 of 2000, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13, 2000. The rate is slowly continuing downward, toward the June 2003 lows.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed lower for the week, at $85.20. As forecast in Plazaview, a minor correction for the T-note fund was expected.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually, since September of 2003, ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, as previously forecast, it is currently in a minor correction. That correction is nearly complete, a minor rally has potential to $85.47. Another pull-back would move it to lower targets of $85.05, $84.77, 83.95, maybe 82.89, and less likely, $82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed lower for the week, at $86.05. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund was expected to pull-back, to lower targets.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, as it has since August of 2003, to a minimum target of $96. A reverse of the recent decline is gaining potential, to initially rise back up to $88.91. However, as previously forecast, the market has good potential for a pull-back, to lower range targets of $85.46, 84.22, and 83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90.

Note: Change to cash market forecast, from prior futures market forecasts.
By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (cash market) paused in its primarily rising trend and closed lower, at 105-3/32. As forecast in Plazaview, short-term selling was expected.

This week, if the close of last week holds, the T-bond will begin to rise again, toward June's upper level. But, if it fails to advance, it will resume falling toward 102-27/32 and complete an interim correction of short-term selling, begun on 3/24/04.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ remained above the $36.00 level but it closed lower for the week, at $36.94.

This week, the QQQ is still in the 3/24/04, initial recovery, from its (January ‘04) downward correction. Since 10/02, there has been a rising trend, a significant break from the March 2000 decline. But, the S&P 500 is still within the negative influence of its March 2000, declining trend. The QQQ rally is unlikely to hold its advance and may soon fail or move sideways until it fails. A correction has potential to gradually bring it back down to $36.16, 35.22, $34.42 and possibly $24.23.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed down, at 101.62. As forecast in Plazaview, the metals are in a rising trend, although, unsustainably steep and due for correction.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a long term, rising trend. The primary uptrend was established in the one-year period of Nov. 2000 - Nov. ‘01 and that remains in effect. However, since July of 2003, the market has been in an unsustainable, steep rise. Since January 2004, a downward correction has been in progress and these metals are likely to correct by moving downward and sideways for a while. Currently, market bias is upward, to targets of 102.81 and 105.35.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-19-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the 10yr. T-note's yield rate closed higher, at 4.352%. The T-bond yield rate did the same, closing higher for the week, at 5.176%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward but the interim rebound prevailed.

This week continues the yield rate for the T-note and the T-bond in a primarily falling trend. This recent increase has been an interim and temporary reaction. The current rate increase is nearly complete. Potential to drop is building but it may be one or two more weeks before rates turn in a decidedly lower direction. Rates are still trending downward, toward the June 2003 lows.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed lower for the week, at $84.40. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is still in a minor correction.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually, since September of 2003, ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, as forecast, it is currently in a minor correction. The correction nearly complete and there is good potential to rally. It will take one or two weeks to complete the turning process and resume upward prices. Immediate lower target is $84.09 and upper targets are $85.20 and $87.08.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed lower for the week, at $84.56. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund was expected to pull-back, to lower targets.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, as it has since August of 2003, to a minimum target of $96. A reverse of the recent decline is gaining potential, to initially rise back up to $85.74 and $88.91. However, as previously forecast, the market still has potential to pull-back. Lower targets are $84.24, and $83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90. The process of turning upward may require one or two weeks of sideways movement.

Note: Change to cash market forecast, from prior futures market forecasts.
By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (cash market) paused in its primarily rising trend and closed lower, at 102-30/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the market moved to 102-27/32.

This week, there is potential to rally but the 102 level is likely to be tested before the market turns upward and resumes toward June's upper level. The interim correction of short-term selling, begun on 3/24/04 is nearing completion.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ remained above the $36.00 level but it closed lower for the week, at $36.09.

Since 10/02, The QQQ has been in a rising trend, a significant break from the March 2000 decline. But, the S&P 500 is still within the negative influence of its March 2000, declining trend. The QQQ rally is unlikely to hold above $36.00 and may fall to $34.42 and $33.26 or move sideways until it falls. A deeper correction would gradually bring it down to $24.23.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed sharply lower, at 95.18. As forecast in Plazaview, the metals were in a rising trend, although, unsustainably steep and due for correction.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a long term, rising trend. The primary uptrend was established in the one-year period of Nov. 2000 - Nov. ‘01 and that remains in effect. However, since July of 2003, the market has been in an unsustainable, steep rise. Since January 2004, a downward correction has been in progress and these metals are likely to correct by moving downward and sideways for a while. Currently, market bias is upward and there is potential for a rally, to targets of 101.72 and 105.35.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-26-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the 10yr. T-note's yield rate closed only a little higher, at 4.452%. The T-bond yield rate did the same, closing marginally higher for the week, at 5.247%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward but the interim rebound prevailed.

This week continues the yield rate for the T-note and the T-bond in a primarily falling trend. This recent increase has been an interim and temporary reaction to market anticipation of higher rates from the Federal Reserve. The current rate increase is nearly complete. Potential to drop is at a critical stage but it may be one more week before rates turn in a decidedly lower direction. Rates are still trending downward, toward the June 2003 lows.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed lower for the week, at $83.72. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is still in a minor correction.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually, since September of 2003, ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, as forecast, it is currently in the minor correction of 3/25/04. The correction is nearly complete and good potential is building for a rally. It may take one more week to complete the turning process and resume upward prices. Immediate lower targets have been reached and upper targets are waiting at $87 and above.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed lower for the week, at $84.04. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund was expected to pull-back, to lower targets.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, as it has since August of 2003, to a minimum target of $96. A reverse of the recent decline is gaining potential, to initially rise back up to $89 or $90. The market still has limited potential to pull-back, most lower targets have been reached; possible, but less likely is $82.90. The process of turning upward may require another week of up and down movement but TLT looks ready to rally soon.

Note: Change to cash market forecast, from prior futures market forecasts.
By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (cash market) continued to pause in a primarily rising trend. It closed lower, at 101-29/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the market tested the 102 level before turning upward.

This week, there is potential to rally but the 102 level is likely to be tested before the market turns upward and resumes toward June's upper level. The interim correction of short-term selling, begun on 3/24/04 is near completion, building a base to rally now or soon.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ remained above the $36.00 level and closed higher for the week, at $37.21.

Since the 10/02 break away from the March of 2000 downtrend, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. But, the recent correction appears still in progress and the S&P 500 is still within the negative influence of its March 2000, declining trend. The QQQ is unlikely to hold above $36.00 and may soon fall to $34.42 and $33.26 or move sideways until it falls. A deeper correction may gradually bring the QQQ down to $24.23.

By the end of last week, again, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed sharply lower, at 88.12. As forecast in Plazaview, the metals were in a rising trend, although, unsustainably steep and due for correction.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a long term, rising trend. But, the metals have been overbought and that has produced the current downward correction. The primary uptrend is still in effect, that was established in the one-year period of Nov. 2000 - Nov. ‘01. However, since July of 2003, the market has been in an unsustainable, steep rise. Since January 2004, a downward correction has been in progress and these metals are likely to correct by moving further downward and sideways for a while. A minor rebounding rally may develop soon but that will fail to hold an advance.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-3-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the 10yr. T-note's yield rate closed higher, at 4.501%. The T-bond yield rate did the same, closing marginally higher for the week, at 5.282%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward but the interim rebound is prevailing, so far.

This week continues the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond in a longer term, falling trend. But, last week's additional rise is an indication that rates are testing for development of a new up trend. The current rate increases appear near completion and potential to drop back down is expected but now at a critical stage for turning. If the interim rise does end soon, the longer term trend will resume downward, toward the June 2003 lows. This week may be more revealing of future direction.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed marginally (-$0.18) lower for the week, at $83.50. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is still in a minor correction.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually, since September of 2003, ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, as forecast, it is currently in the minor correction of 3/25/04. The correction is nearly complete and good potential is building for a rally. The turning process should soon be completed, resulting in upward prices. Immediate lower targets have been reached and upper targets are waiting at $87 and above.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed (-$0.40) lower for the week, at $84.04. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund was expected to pull-back, to lower targets.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, as it has since August of 2003, to a minimum target of $96. A reverse of the recent decline is gaining potential, to initially rise back up to $89 or $90. The market still has limited potential to pull-back, most lower targets have been reached; possible, but less likely is $82.90. The process of turning upward may require another week of up and down movement but TLT looks ready to rally soon.

Note: Change to (cash) Bond market forecast, from prior futures market forecasts.
By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (cash market) continued to pause in a primarily rising trend. It closed (-20/32) lower, at 101-9/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is testing the 102 level before turning upward.

This week, there is potential to rally but the 102 level is a barrier of resistance before the market turns upward and resumes toward June's upper level. The interim correction of short-term selling, begun on 3/24/04 is near completion, building a base to rally now or soon.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ fell below the $36.00 level and closed down (-$2.44) for the week, at $34.77. As forecast in Plazaview, this market was expected to move lower.

Since the 10/02 breakout, from the March of 2000 downtrend, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. But, the recent (January ‘04) correction appears still in progress and the S&P 500 is still within the negative influence of its March 2000, declining trend. The QQQ is still in the rising trend of 10/02 but a deeper correction may eventually bring the QQQ lower, possibly to $24.23.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed sharply (-6.18) lower, at 88.12. As forecast in Plazaview, these metals are in a rising trend, unsustainably steep and due for correction.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a long term, rising trend. But, the metals have been overbought and that has produced the current downward correction. The primary uptrend is still in effect, that was established in the one-year period of Nov. 2000 - Nov. ‘01. However, since July of 2003, the market has been in an unsustainable, steep rise. Since January 2004, a downward correction has been in progress and these metals are likely to correct by moving further downward, to 77.32. A minor rebounding rally may develop soon but that advance will fail to hold, until this correction is completed.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-31-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Goldman Sachs and CRB Commodity Indices: GI- and CR-

By the end of last week, the 10yr. T-note=s yield rate closed at 4.655%. The T-bond yield rate closed the week, at 5.348%.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are in a rising trend, due for a pull-back correction. One more attempt to rise is likely, followed by a downward correction.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed the week at $82.79.
The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed the week at $83.10.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (cash index) closed the week at 100-14/32.

This week, the T-bond is approaching completion of what appears to be a March to May decline. The Bond is likely to make one more drop, before completing a base and then, rising back to the former range of 106 to 112.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market=s NASDAQ-100, the QQQ closed the week at $36.55.

The QQQ has been in a rising trend since October of 2002. But, since January of this year, the QQQ has been in the falling trend of a correction. The QQQ appears to be forming a potential base for a rebounding rally. The current range of downside risk is $33. If the currently forming base does not hold, the correction trend may deepen and could bring the QQQ as low as $24.

The Goldman Sachs commodity index (GI) and the CRB index have been in a rising trend since January of 2002. Last week, the GI closed the week at 301.41 and CRB closed at 277.25. Both appear to have become overextended in recent weeks. The CRB has partially corrected but not yet for the GI. Increased demand is sustaining prices for raw materials and indicating continued economic growth.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-7-2004
Record of forecasts - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Commodity Indices - Goldman Sachs and CRB: GI- and CR-

By the end of last week, the 10yr. T-note yield rate closed higher, at 4.774%. The T-bond yield rate closed higher for the week, at 5.464%.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are in a rising trend but they are currently due for a pull-back correction. The current rise potential is likely to be limited and followed by a downward correction. Ultimately, the Note could go down to 3.739%, and the Bond, down to 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed the week, lower, at $81.75. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed the week, lower, at $81.50.

The IEF and the TLT are in a falling trend but each is oversold and due to rally after the current base building is completed. The IEF may go back up to 87.55; the TLT may go back up to 89.55.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (cash index) closed lower for the week at 98-27/32.

This week, the T-bond is approaching completion of what appears to be a March to May decline. The Bond is likely to complete its current decline by finding support in the area of 97-16/32 to 98-11/32. Then, it may rise back to the former range of 106 to 112.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed lower for the week, at $36.19.

The QQQ has been in a rising trend since October of 2002. But, since January of this year, the QQQ has been in the falling trend of a correction. The QQQ appears to be in a rebounding rally but that is currently unlikely to succeed. The current range of downside risk is to $33. If the currently rally fails and does not hold above $33., the correction trend may deepen and bring the QQQ as low as $24.

The Goldman Sachs commodity index (GI) and the CRB index have been in a rising trend since January of 2002. Last week, the GI closed lower for the week, at 294.58 and CRB closed lower, at 274.75. Both have become overextended in recent weeks. The CRB has partially corrected but the GI is more extended, with greater downward potential. Increased demand is sustaining prices for raw materials and indicating continued economic growth. Crude oil is the major component of this increase in commodity index prices.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-14-2004
Record of forecasts - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Commodity Indices - Goldman Sachs and CRB: GI- and CR-

By the end of last week, the 10yr. T-note yield rate closed slightly higher, at 4.791%. The T-bond yield rate closed nearly unchanged for the week, at 5.465%.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are in the June ‘03 rising trend but they are too advanced and should pull-back in a correction. The current rise potential is likely to be limited and followed by a downward correction. Ultimately, the Note could go down to 4.2% or 3.739%; the Bond will eventually correct down to 4.972% or 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed the week at five cents lower, $81.70. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed the week at two cents lower, $81.48.

The IEF and the TLT are in a falling trend but each is oversold and due to rally. The IEF may go back up to 85.20 or 87.55; the TLT may go back up to minimum of 89.55.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (cash index) closed (-)5/32 lower for the week at 98-22/32.

This week, the T-bond is approaching completion of what appears to be a March to May decline. The Bond is building a base of support in the area of 97-16/32 to 98-11/32. Eventually, it will rise back to the former range of 106 to 112.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed up for the week, at $36.84.

The QQQ has been in a rising trend since October of 2002. But, since January of this year, the QQQ has been in the falling trend of a correction. Since the week of 5-17-04, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. It to remain viable, it must continue higher and rise and hold above $38.60. Current range of downside risk is to $33. If the current rally fails and does not hold above $33., the correction trend may deepen and bring the QQQ as low as $24.

The Goldman Sachs commodity index (GI) and the CRB index have been in a rising trend since January of 2002. Last week, the GI closed lower for the week, at 292.20 and CRB closed lower, at 269.93. Both had become overextended in recent weeks . Now, they are correcting, downward. The GI is more extended, with greater downward potential. Increased demand is sustaining prices for raw materials and indicating continued economic growth. Crude oil is the major component of the increase in commodity index prices.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-21-2004

Record of forecasts - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:

  • Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
  • Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
  • U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
  • Commodity Indices - Goldman Sachs and CRB: GI- and CR-

By the end of last week, the 10yr. T-note’s yield rate closed slightly lower, at 4.71%. The T-bond’s yield rate closed significantly lower for the week, at 5.378%.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are in the June ‘03 rising trend but they are too advanced and should continue to gradually correct by moving lower. The current rise potential is likely to be limited, followed by downward corrections. Ultimately, the Note could go down to 4.2% or 3.739%; the Bond will eventually correct down to 4.972% or 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed the week $.56 higher, at $82.26. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed the week $1.10 higher, at $82.58.

The IEF and the TLT are in a falling trend but each has been oversold and since early May, have been building a base to rally. The IEF may go back up to 85.20 or 87.55; the TLT is poised for a rebound, upward, to a minimum of 89.55.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (cash index) closed (+) 41/32 higher for the week at 99-31/32.

The T-bond appears to be completing a March to May decline. Since May ‘04, the Bond has been building a base of support in the areas of 97-16/32 to 98-11/32. Eventually, it will rise back to the former range of 106 to 112.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed (-) $0.40 down for the week, at $36.44.

The QQQ has been in a rising trend since October ‘02. But, since January of this year, the QQQ has been in the falling trend of a correction. Since May ‘04, it is in a rising trend. For the current trend to remain viable, it must continue to rise and hold above $38.60. Current range of downside risk is to $33. If the current rally fails and does not hold above $33., the correction trend may deepen and bring the QQQ as low as $24.

The Goldman Sachs commodity index (GI) and the CRB index have been in a rising trend since January ‘02. Last week, the GI closed up for the week, at 296.08 and CRB closed slightly down, at 269.83. Both have become overbought in recent weeks. More recently, they are correcting, downward. The GI is more extended, having greater downward potential. Increased demand is sustaining prices for all raw materials, indicating economic growth. Crude oil is the major component of the increased commodity index prices.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-28-2004
Forecast Records - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Commodity Indices - Goldman Sachs and CRB: GI- and CR-

By the end of last week, the 10yr. T-note’s yield rate closed lower, at 4.645%. The T-bond’s yield rate closed lower for the week, at 5.335%.

This week, as previously forecast, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are in the June ‘03 rising trend but they are too advanced and should continue to gradually correct by moving lower. The current rise potential is likely to be limited, followed by downward corrections. Ultimately, the Note could go down to 4.2% or 3.739%; the Bond will eventually correct down to 4.972% or 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed the week $.50 higher, at $82.76. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed the week $.55 higher, at $83.13.

The IEF and the TLT are in a falling trend but each has been oversold and as previously forecast, since early May, each have been building a base to rally. There can be some interim selling along the way, but the IEF seems headed back up to 85.20 or 87.55; the TLT is poised to rebound, up to 86.05 or 89.55.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (cash index) closed (+) 20/32 higher for the week at 100-19/32.

The T-bond appears to be ending the March to May decline. Since May ‘04, the Bond has been building a base of support and rising above the area of 97-16/32 to 98-11/32. Eventually, it will rise to the former range of 106 to 112.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed (+) $.89 up for the week, at $37.33.

Since January of this year, the QQQ had been in a falling trend. Since mid-May, it has turned to a new, rising trend. For the current trend to remain viable, it must continue the advance and break above $38.60.

The Goldman Sachs commodity index (GI) and the CRB index have been in a rising trend since January ‘02. Last week, the GI closed down for the week, at 291.72 and CRB closed up, at 272.25. The difference may be explained by the more advanced GI. Both have been overbought in recent weeks. More recently, they are correcting, downward and narrowing their spread. The GI is more extended, having greater downward potential. Increased economic demand sustains prices for all raw materials, indicating economic growth. However, crude oil is a major component of these increased commodity index prices.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

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