Plazaview.com

 Forecast Records - 2nd Qtr. of 2003

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-31-2003
(Yield rate of the 30 year T-bond begins at 4.913% and S&P 500 starts at 863.50)
This week, the Allied war to remove Iraq's leadership, will move to its third week.

Last week, the yield rate of the 30 year Bond moved down as forecast in Plazaview. The week's range moved from 4.981% to 4.886%, closing lower for the week, at 4.913%.

This week, the yield rate is still elevated by the initial, exuberant reaction to start of the Iraq war. It is in a potentially volatile range, with an upper target of 5.03%. Any further rate advance will be temporary; the rate is primarily due to return, back down, to 4.854% and 4.617%. The rate is still in the long downtrend, begun in January of 2000. There is a good chance that the rate will return to 4.617% and possibly retest 4.603%. With time, if those low targets hold, another rebound will eventually gain potential to lift the rate with sustained progress.

Last week, the cash T-bond rallied, hit the target of 106.21/32, and found a mid-range base around 105, all as forecast in Plazaview. The Bond ranged between 105.1/32 and 107.13/32, closing higher, at 106.31/32.

This week begins with the Bond still testing the top and if the mid-range base will hold at 105, another advance is pending. The Bond has been in a long, rising and sideways topping path, since the August of 1999 low, at 86.3 and the January, 2001 high of 113.30. Since November of 2002, the current direction has drifted up and sideways. It has already dropped from a potential top of 112.29/32 and may gradually return for another test of the top.

Last week, the U.S. stock market resumed failing on rallies, as forecast in Plazaview. The S&P 500 traded between 890.91 and 858.09, closing down for the week, at 863.50. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)41.23%.

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the immediate trend is exceeding its three year anniversary of a down trending cycle. The down trend, begun in March of 2000, has not yet ended but it is nearing a potential turning point of 804 (S&P 500). The recent over-exuberance of war begun had over-spirited the market, higher. There may be a another rally, back to 896 (S&P 500) but that would fade and the market will resume failing on rallies, moving back down, to the forecast target of (S&P 500) 804. If the 804 level holds, a sustainable rebound will have good potential.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index gave back half of the prior, two weeks' advance. The DX moved in a range of 101.64 to 99.79, closing lower, at 99.96 for the week. As forecast in Plazaview, the dollar was due to return to its base..

This week, the dollar index is in a trading range, between targets of 101.92 and 98.16. It will return to the lower target, to build a base before sustaining an advance. That will bring the DX back down to the target of 98.16 or lower. If 97.85 holds as a base, a rebound will eventually take the DX back up, toward 105 or 108. The DX has good potential to rebound but the Iraq war is pulling the DX back to its lows.

Last week, the Euro-Currency recovered half the loss of the prior two weeks. It ranged from 1.0568 to 1.0815, closing higher, at 1.0785, last week.

The EC begins this week, still near the top of its range. Except for the Iraq war, it is well positioned to break further down from its prolonged advance. It may linger at this upper level but a pull back will commence with the end of war. The months of price advance, has pushed the limits of excess. The EC may test the top again but it will soon move lower, initially to 1.052 and 1.03. More targets of $.9906 and $.9313 are distant and early forecasted objectives.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price rallied, last week. It traded in a range of $26.30 to $29.20, closing +$2.18 higher, at $28.36. As forecast in Plazaview, the market has not made a top or bottom price and it recovered has part of a developing, oscillation pattern.

This week, CO's (June) price is developing an expected trading range. Last week's rebound from prior week's deep selling has not completed the rebound. But, lower targets are in sight at $25.67, $23.99 and $21.58. Since a current top and bottom price are not yet in place, the market will oscillate in range bound movement as the Middle East war is effecting traders.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price rebounded last week. HU-M traded from $.8415 to $.934, closing up, at $.9135. As forecast in Plazaview, the market could and did rebound.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) has partially recovered from the recent, sharp decline. But, the top price is not set and lower targets still await the market, at $.8297, $.7977 and $.7479. The market is now in a broad trading range, with potential to retest the recent top, at $1.1067. The Allied war with Iraq hangs over this market and an extended conflict will send prices back up, again.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price rallied, last week. It traded from $.691 to $.765, closing higher, at $.73. The market rose with increased Middle East war concerns.

This week, the HO market price enters a trading range, between $.6845 and $.8092. After a top is tested, further pullback is possible. Lower (June) price targets are waiting at $.6632, $.6336 and more distant but eventually, $.5883 may be hit.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price, last week, remained subdued in comparison with the other energy markets. It ranged from $5.05 to $5.33 and closed up, at $5.186. As forecast, the allied war is inspiring market direction and NG is comparatively fixed, acting as hedge for CO and HO positions.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the allied war against Iraq's leadership is inspiring market direction. The NG-June continues as a hedge against CO and HO volatility, with the NG price less volatile as a result. NG is in a trading range of $6.053 to $4.429. Selling is not complete, lower targets remain at $4.429 and potentially lower, at $3.461.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-7-2003

(Yield rate of the 30 year T-bond begins at 4.957% and S&P 500 starts at 878.85)

This is the third week of the Allied war to remove Iraq's leadership, it is succeeding in its task.

Last week, the yield rate of the 30 year Bond moved down and up in reaction to the war. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate is in a potentially volatile range. The week's range moved between 4.804% and 4.995%, closing up for the week, at 4.957%.

This week, the yield rate is still elevated by an exuberant reaction to Allied progress in the Iraq war. The rate is still in a potentially volatile range, with an upper target of 5.03% and lower targets of 4.843% and 4.617%. The rate is still in the long downtrend, begun in January of 2000. After the market emotions of war subside, there is a good chance that the rate will return to 4.617% and possibly retest 4.603%. With more time, if those low targets hold, another rebound will eventually gain potential to lift the rate with sustainable progress.

Last week, the cash T-bond rallied on Monday but declined for the remainder of the week. News of Allied progress against Iraq's regime caused investors to sell bonds and buy stocks. The Bond ranged between 109 and 105.26/32, closing lower, at 106.6/32.

This week begins with the Bond in the low end of a three week range. If the 105 to 104.29/32 level continues to hold, a rally is pending. The Bond has been in a long, rising and sideways topping path, since the August of 1999 low, at 86.3 and the January, 2001 high of 113.30. Since November of 2002, the current direction has drifted up and sideways. It has already dropped from a potential top of 112.29/32 and may gradually return for another test of that top.

Last week, the U.S. stock market rallied on reaction to Allied progress in the Iraq war. The S&P 500 traded between 843.68 and 885.89, closing up for the week, at 878.85. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)40.18%.

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the immediate trend is past its third year anniversary of a down trending cycle. The down trend, begun in March of 2000, has not yet ended but it is nearing a potential turning point of 804 (S&P 500). The recent exuberance of success at war has spirited the market, higher. There may be a further advance, back to 896 (S&P 500) but the current advance will fade and the market will resume failing on rallies, moving back down, to the forecast target of (S&P 500) 804. In time, if the approximate 804 level holds, a sustainable rebound will have good potential.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved down and recovered with news of Allied progress in the Iraq war. The DX moved in a range of 100.75 to 98.70, closing higher, at 100.45 for the week. As forecast in Plazaview, the dollar is subject to the Iraq war.

This week, the dollar index is still in a trading range, between targets of 101.92 and 98.16. It is long delayed in moving up but will return to the lower target and test its support, before a sustained advance. That will bring the DX back down to the target of 98.16 or lower. If 98.16 or 97.85 holds as a base, a rebound will eventually take the DX back up, toward 105 or 108.

Last week, the Euro-Currency rallied at the start of the week but fell to a loss for the week. It ranged from 1.0958 to 1.0687, closing lower, at 1.0735 last week.

The EC begins this week, still near the top of its range. Except for the Iraq war, the EC is well positioned to break further down from its prolonged advance. It may linger at this upper level but a pull back will commence with the end of war. Prior months of price advancement has pushed the limits of excess. The EC may test the top again but it will soon move lower, initially to 1.052 and 1.03. More targets of .9906 and .9313 are distant and early forecasted objectives.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price fell during most of last week. It traded in a range of $29.50 to $26.26, closing -$1.50 lower, at $26.86. As forecast in Plazaview, the CO market has not made a top or bottom price and it is oscillating in a range-bound pattern.

This week, CO's (June) price is in a marginally supported, upward expanding range. Last week's decline may be followed by a further decline, to targets $25.67, $23.99 and $21.58. Since a current top and bottom price are not yet in place, the market can oscillate in range-bound movement as the effect of post-war Iraq is resolved.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price moved down, last week. HU-M traded from $.936 to $.825, closing down, at $.8526. The market hit a Plazaview forecast, lower target, at $.8297.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) is likely to decline further, to lower targets, at $.7977 and $.7479. The market is now in a declining trading range, with minor potential to briefly rally up to an upper target of $.8971. The Allied war with Iraq is nearing conclusion, with resulting bias to lower market prices.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price fell, last week. It traded from $.7595 to $.6885, closing lower, at $.7057. The market fell with news of Allied forces' success over Iraq's military.

This week, the HO market price is still in the trading range of $.6845 to $.8092. A brief rally may bring the price up to $.712 but lower (June) price targets are at $.6845, $.6632, $.6336 and more distant but eventually, $.5883 may be hit.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price, trended lower, last week. It ranged from $5.195 to $4.935 and closed down, at $4.993. As forecast, the allied war is stimulating market direction and NG is comparatively fixed, acting as hedge for sellers with short CO and HO positions.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the successful Allied war against Iraq's regime is diminishing market price. The NG-June continues as a hedge against CO and HO volatility, resulting in an NG price which is less volatile. NG is in a trading range of $6.053 to $4.429. Selling is not complete, lower NG-M targets remain at $4.429 and potentially lower, at $3.461.
J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-14-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins at 3.981% and S&P 500 starts at 868.30)

This fourth week of the Allied war to remove Iraq's leadership is nearly accomplished in its task.

Note: Beginning this week, our focus has changed to the (10-year) Treasury Note and yield rate.

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note moved up and down, in a V formation. As forecast in Plazaview, same as the 30 year rate, it remained in a potentially volatile range. The week's range moved between 4.08% and 3.887%, closing up for the week, at 3.981%.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still elevated by an enthusiastic reaction to the potential results of Allied success against Iraq. The rate is still in a potentially volatile range, with an upper target of 4.415% to 4.61% but more decisive, lower targets are 3.934%, 3.827%, and 3.589%. The yield rate is in the long downtrend, begun in January of 2000, and destined to return to those lower targets. After market emotions of war subside, the rate will move back down. With more time, if those low targets hold, the bottom may be established.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved up and down, in a sideways pattern for the week. News of Allied progress against Iraq's regime held investor attention. The T-note ranged between 100.1 and 98.6, closing slightly lower, at 99.3.

This week begins with the Bond in the low end of a four week range. The T-note has moved sideways since last November. Now, it is in a range of 98.3 to 100.8, trending sideways, lower.

Last week, the U.S. stock market rallied on reaction to Allied military progress in Iraq but failed to hold its gains. The S&P 500 traded between 904.89 and 862.76, closing down for the week, at 868.30. As forecast, the market rallied to the 896 target and failed to hold its advance. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)40.9%.

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the nearer trend is beginning a fourth year of a down trending correction. The down trend, begun in March of 2000, has not yet ended but with the eventual re-test of 804 (S&P 500), the market will then have new potential to end the decline. The recent exuberance of success in the Allied war has elevated the market but the current advance will fade and the market will resume failing on rallies, until the forecast target of (S&P 500) 804 is retouched. In time, if the approximate 804 level holds, a sustainable rebound will have good potential.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index rallied but gave back much of the gain by the end of the week. The DX moved in a range of 99.54 to 101.81, closing slightly lower, at 100.18 for the week.

This week, the dollar index is still in a wide trading range, between targets of 101.92 and 98.16. World events have long delayed it from moving up and this delay has not yet ended. More time and base building is required and that will bring the DX back down to 98.16 or lower. If 98.16 or 97.85 holds as a base, a rebound will eventually take the DX back up, to 101.92 or higher.

Last week, the Euro-Currency fell at the beginning of the week but rallied to advance for the week. It ranged between 1.0562 and 1.0829, closing slightly higher, at 1.0753 last week.

The EC begins this week, still near the top of its current range. Except for the Iraq war, the EC is well positioned to break down from its prolonged advance. It may linger at this upper level but a pull back will commence with the end of war and signs of economic strength returning first to the US economy. Prior months of price advance has pushed the EC to an excessive elevation. The EC may test the top again but it is destined to unfold lower, initially to 1.052 and 1.03. More targets of $.9906 and $.9313 are distant and early forecasted objectives.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price fell lower but recovered by then end of last week. It traded in a range of $27.80 to $25.45, closing higher, at $27.11. As forecast in Plazaview, the CO-M hit a lower target of $25.67 and continued in an oscillating, range-bound pattern.

This week, CO's (June) price is in a marginally supported, trading range. Last week's decline may be followed by a further decline, to targets $23.99 and $21.58. Since a current top and bottom price are not yet in place, the market will oscillate in range-bound movement as the effects of post-war Iraq is revealed.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price moved up and down, last week. HU-M traded between $.867 and $.814, closing down, at $.8402. The market moved in the Plazaview forecast, declining trading range.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) is likely to decline further, to targets of $.7977 and $.7479. The market is in a declining trading range, with minor potential to rally up to a nearby upper target of $.8971. The Allied war with Iraq is nearing conclusion, with resulting bias toward lower market prices.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price rallied with an end of season cold snap but gave back most of the advance by the end of last week. It traded between $.731 and $.674, closing slightly higher, at $.674. The market rallied to the Plazaview forecasted target of $.712, down to $.6845 and $.6632.

This week, the HO market price is still in the trading range of $.6632 to $.8092. A brief rally may bring the price up to $.712 but lower (June) price targets are waiting at $.6632 and $.6336; more distant but eventually, $.5883 may be hit.

The (NY-NG-M) June, natural gas price trended higher, last week. It ranged from $4.98 to $5.54 and closed up, at $5.50. As forecast in Plazaview, the allied war is stimulating market direction and NG is comparatively fixed, acting as a hedge for sellers, short CO and HO positions.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the successful Allied war against Iraq's regime is easing market prices. The NG-June will soon loose its accommodating position as a hedge against CO and HO volatility, resulting in a NG price which is more end-user driven. NG is in a broad trading range with an upper target of $6.053 and lower targets beginning at $4.429.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-21-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins at 3.957% and S&P 500 starts at 893.58)

This fifth week of the Allied war to remove Iraq's former regime is now reinstating lawful order.

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note moved in a narrowing range, inside the prior week's range. Last week's range moved between 4.038% and 3.901%, closing lower for the week, at 3.957%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate moved lower, hitting the 3.934% target.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still temporarily elevated. The rate is still in a potentially volatile range, with an upper target of 4.415% to 4.61% but more decisive, lower targets are 3.827%, and 3.589%. The rate is primarily in the downtrend, of January, 2000, destined to return to the lower targets. With more time, if those lower targets hold, the bottom may be established for the foreseeable future.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved inside the lower range of the prior week. The T-note ranged between 98.10 and 99.13, closing slightly higher, at 99.5. News of improved tech stocks' earning pulled some cash out of bonds and into stocks.

This week begins with the Bond still contained in approximately the same range since January. The T-note fell lower, this past November and into its current range. Now, it is in a range of 98.3 to 100.8, trending sideways.

Last week, the U.S. stock market was moved by positive tech stocks' earnings reports. The S&P 500 traded between 868.51 and 896.77, closing up for the week, at 893.58. As forecast, the market rallied to the 896 target and failed to sustain its advance for a second week. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)39.18%.

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the nearer trend of the broad market is in a fourth year of a down trending correction. The down-trend, began in March of 2000 and has not ended for the major indices. The eventual re-test of 804 (S&P 500), will then give potential to end that down-trend. Last week's tech stock rally is a sign of things to come. The NASDAQ index has already ended its three year decline. Recent market exuberance elevated the broad market but it will ultimately resume failing on rallies, until the forecast target of 804 (S&P 500) is revisited. In time, if that 804 level holds, a rebound will have good potential.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index settled back down to the range of two weeks earlier. The DX moved in a range of 100.43 to 98.68, closing lower, at 99.3 for the week.

This week, the dollar index is still in the Plazaview forecasted trading range, between targets of 101.92 and 98.16. World events have long delayed it from moving up and the delay has not yet ended. More time and base building is required and to bring the DX back down to 98.16 or lower. If 98.16 or 97.85 holds, a rebound will eventually take the DX to 101.92 or higher.
Last week, the Euro-Currency rose, back into the range of two weeks prior. It ranged between 1.0718 and 1.0972, closing higher last week, at 1.0883.

The EC begins this week, still holding, near the top of its current range. The EC is well positioned to break down from its prolonged advance. It is lingering at this upper level but a pull back will commence with the end of the Iraq war and signs of economic strength returning first to the US economy. Prior months of price advance has pushed the EC to excessive elevation. The EC may test the top again but it is destined to unfold lower, initially to 1.052 and 1.03. More targets of $.9906 and $.9313 are distant and early forecasted objectives.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price rallied and closed higher, last week. It traded in a range of $26.53 to $28.70, closing up, at $28.54. As forecast, the market is in a range-bound movement, reacting to results and news of post-war Iraq.

This week, CO's (June) price is in a marginally supported, trading range. In a decline, targets are at $23.99 and $21.58 but this market is driven by daily news of Middle East events, stemming from the regime change in Iraq. Since a current top and bottom price are not yet in place, the market will oscillate in range-bound movement as the effects of post-war Iraq are revealed.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price moved up, last week. HU-M traded between $.828 and $.886, closing higher, at $.8815. The market moved in Plazaview's forecasted, minor potential direction, toward the target of $.8971.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) is reacting to the sharp declines of March, weeks ending on the 14th and 21st. If the market is heading to a mid-range rebound as it now appears, that midpoint target is $.9604, with $.8971 as the nearest target. Short of that rebound, a decline will move the markets back to targets of $.7977 and $.7479. The Allied war with Iraq is nearing conclusion but an unsettled peace remains in the Middle East.

The (NY-HO-M) June price of heating oil rallied last week. It traded between $.6965 and $.746, closing higher, at $.7444. The market rallied to the Plazaview forecasted target of $.712 and exceeded that but remained in the forecast range of $.6632 to $.8092..

This week, the HO market price is still in a range of $.6632 to $.8092. A continued rebound from the sharp declines of last month, may bring the price up to midrange target of $.7990 and possibly to $.8092. But as winter market demand is gone, lower (June) price targets are waiting at $.6636 and $.6332; a more distant target is $.5883.

The (NY-NG-M) June, natural gas price trended higher last week. It ranged from $5.445 to $5.90 and closed up, at $5.788. As forecast in Plazaview, the unsettled Middle East peace is stimulating market direction and NG was moved closer to its upper target of $6.053.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the successful removal of Iraq's menacing regime has resulted in an undefined, Middle East peace. NG-June is in a broad trading range with an upper target of $6.053 and lower targets beginning at $4.429. Current upward movement is expected toward the upper target and briefly, above that. However, NG will be forming a potential top in a continued advance, retaining its potential for the lower end of the range.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-28-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins at 3.886% and S&P 500 starts at 898.81)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note moved down, into the low end of this month's range. Last week's range moved between 4.034% and 3.864%, closing lower for the week, at 3.886%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate moved lower, in its primary trend.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still temporarily elevated and holding in a range. The rate is in a range with upper targets of 3.995%, 4.415% and 4.61% but more decisive, lower targets are 3.827%, and 3.589%. The rate is primarily in the downtrend of January 2000, destined to return to lower targets in its range. With more time, if those lower targets hold, the bottom may be established for the foreseeable future.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved up by the end of the week. The T-note ranged between 98.12 and 100.10, closing slightly lower, at 99.15/32.

This week begins with the Bond near the mid-point of the same range as since December. It is rising in a range of 98.3 /32 to 100.8/32, trending higher and sideways.

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved higher. The S&P 500 traded between 886.70 and 919.74, closing up for the week, at 898.81. The market rallied above the prior barrier of 896,
it closed just above that by the end of the week. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)38.83%.

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the nearer trend of the broad market is in a fourth year of a down trending correction. The down-trend, began in March of 2000 and has not yet ended for the major indices. The eventual re-test of 804 (S&P 500) will result sooner if the current advance fails. The NASDAQ index has already ended its three year decline but the other major indices have not, yet. The major indices are nearing break-out levels and further advances can ignite an explosive rally, however, that is likely to fail and fall back.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index settled lower, into the range of early last month, mid-March. The DX moved in a range of 99.86 to 98.14, closing lower, at 98.36 for the week. As forecast, the DX returned, down to 98.16.

This week, the dollar index is still in the Plazaview forecasted trading range, between targets of 101.92 and 98.16. World events have long delayed it from moving up and the delay has not yet ended. However, the DX appears to be still building a base in an already oversold market. More time and base building is required. If 98.16 or 97.85 levels hold, a rebound will eventually take the DX up to 101.92 or higher.

Last week, the Euro-Currency rose, into its top range. It ranged between 1.0823 and 1.1046, closing higher last week, at 1.1037.

The EC begins this week, still holding and near the top of its current, over-bought range. The EC is well positioned to break down from its prolonged advance. It is lingering at this upper level but a pull back will commence with signs of economic strength returning to the US economy. Prior months of price advance has pushed the EC to an excessive elevation. The EC may test insignificantly higher but it is destined to unfold lower, initially to 1.052 and 1.03. More targets of .9906 and .9313 are distant and early forecasted objectives.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price moved lower, last week. It traded in a range of $29.05 to $25.61, closing down, at $26.29. As forecast, the market is in a range-bound movement, reacting to unsettled results and news of post-war Iraq.

This week, CO's (June) price is in a marginally supported, trading range. The market is closer to forming a bottom and in a further decline, targets are at $23.99 and $21.58. Since neither the current top nor bottom price is yet in place, the market is oscillating in range-bound movement.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price moved down, last week. HU-M traded between $.9075 and $.788, closing lower, at $.8307. The market moved to Plazaview's forecasted upper target of $.8971 and lower target of $.7977.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) is unsettled, moving toward a base level. Short of a Middle East sparked price rebound, a continued decline will move the market back to $.7479. The Allied war with Iraq is nearly concluded but an unsettled peace remains in the Middle East.

The (NY-HO-M) June price of heating oil moved lower, last week. It traded between $.765 and $.688, closing down, at $.7003.

This week, the HO market price is still in a range of $.6632 to $.8092. A continued rebound from the sharp declines of last month, is least likely to bring the marker up to targets of $.7990 and possibly to $.8092. The winter market demand is gone and lower (June) price targets are waiting at $.6636, $.6332, with a more distant target at $.5883.

The (NY-NG-M) June, natural gas price moved down, last week. It ranged from $5.91 to $5.445 closing down, at $5.541. The market revived its forecast potential for the lower end of its range.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the successful removal of Iraq's regime has resulted in lower prices but an undefined, Middle East peace remains. NG-June is in a broad trading range with an upper target of $5.802 and possibly $6.053; the lower target is at $4.429. The current trend is down, retaining its potential for the lower end of the range.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-5-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins at 3.913% and S&P 500 starts at 930.08)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note moved in a "U" pattern, closing marginally higher for the week. Still, last week's range continued its down trend, moving between 3.967% and 3.792%, closing up for the week, at 3.913%. As described in Plazaview, the rate continued downward in its primary trend and it hit the forecast target of 3.827%.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still trending lower, toward the forecast target. The rate is in a range with upper targets of 3.995%, 4.415% and 4.61% but the more decisive target is lower, at 3.589%. The rate is primarily in the downtrend of January 2000, destined to return to lower targets in its range. With more time, if those lower targets hold, the bottom may be established for the foreseeable future.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved slightly down by the end of the week. The T-note ranged between 100.11 and 99.4, closing slightly lower, at 99.10/32. The T-note rose to the Plazaview forecast upper range and target of 100.8/32.

This week begins with the Note in the mid-point of the same range as since December. It is rising in a range from 98.3 /32, trending higher and sideways.

Last week, the U.S. stock market continued to move higher last Monday and Friday. In the advancing trend, beginning the week ending last March 21, the S&P 500 traded between 899.19 and 930.56, closing up for the week, at 930.08. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)36.70%.

This week, the U.S. stock market is in a rising trend, started in the week ending March 21. The NASDAQ index has, weeks ago, ended its three year decline. The S&P is now on the edge of initially breaking out of its three-plus years, down trending correction. The March of 2000, down trend has not yet ended for the Dow indices and other, indicator issues. The eventual re-test of 804 (S&P 500) still has potential, the market appears to be now trading up, into a sideways resulting pattern. The S&P 500's near break-out level and another advance may ignite a further rally, however, that is of uncertain progression and still likely to fall back.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index drifted lower, entering the range of February 1999. The DX moved in a range of 98.98 to 96.27, closing lower, at 96.76 for the week. As forecast, the DX returned down, to the area of 97.85 and it traded lower.

This week, the dollar index is now in the Plazaview forecasted trading range of a rebound, if it can build a base above 97.85 and 98.16. World events have long delayed the DX from moving up, now the DX is oversold and due for a rally. If the 98.16 and 97.85 levels hold, a rebound will initially take the DX up to 101.92 or higher.

Last week, the Euro-Currency rose, into its former range of February 1999. It traded between 1.0934 and 1.1284, closing higher last week, at 1.1228.

The EC begins this week, still holding at the top of its current, over-bought range. The EC is well positioned to break down from its prolonged advance. It is lingering at this upper level but a pull-back will commence with signs of economic strength in the US stock market. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to excessive elevation. The EC may continue testing higher but it is vulnerable to fading lower, initially to 1.052 and 1.03. More targets of .9906 and .9313 are distant and early forecasted objectives.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price moved sideways last week. It traded in a range of $26.60 to $25.04, closing down, at $25.67. As forecast, the market is in range-bound movement, reacting to unsettled results and news of post-war Iraq.

This week, CO's (June) price is in a marginally supported, trading range. The market is closer to forming a bottom and in a further decline, targets are at $23.99 and $21.58. Since neither the current top nor bottom price is yet in place, the market is oscillating in range-bound movement.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price moved down, last week. HU-M traded between $.831 and $.763, closing lower, at $.7678. The market moved lower as forecast in Plazaview.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) remains unsettled, moving toward a base level. A continued decline is moving the market back to $.7479.

The (NY-HO-M) June price of heating oil continued moving lower, last week. It traded between $.705 and $.669, closing down, at $.6792.

This week, the HO market price is moving to the bottom of its range: $.6632 to $.8092. A rebound from the sharp declines of last month, will gradually result after the market hits bottom. Upper targets are at $.7990 and $.8092. The winter market demand is gone for now and lower (June) price targets are waiting at $.6636, $.6332, with a more distant target at $.5883.

The (NY-NG-M) June, natural gas price moved down, last week. It ranged from $5.48 to $5.145 closing lower, at $5.255. The market continued toward the forecasted lower end of its range.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the successful removal of Iraq's regime has resulted in lower energy prices. NG-June is in a broad trading range with an upper target of $5.802 and possibly $6.053; the lower target is at $4.429. The immediate trend is down, retaining its potential for the lower end of the range.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-12-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins at 3.691% and S&P 500 starts at 933.41)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note moved down, sharply. Last week's range continued its down trend, moving between 3.955% and 3.607%, closing lower for the week, at 3.691%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate continued downward in its primary trend and nearly hit the lowest target of 3.589%.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still trending lower, near the forecast target. The rate is near a bottom of its expanding range with upper targets of 3.808%, 3.995%, 4.095, 4.415% and 4.61% but the more decisive target is nearby and lower, at 3.589%. The rate is primarily in the downtrend of January 2000, destined to return to lower targets in its range. This week, the rate is likely to range between the nearby 3.808% upper and 3.589% lower targets. With more time, if the lower target holds, the bottom may be established for the foreseeable future.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved higher but collapsed on Friday. The T-note ranged between 102.3 and 99.1, closing slightly lower, at 99.8/32. The T-note remained above the 98.3/32 base, moving higher as forecast in Plazaview.

This week begins with the Note in the mid-point of the same range as since December. It is rising in a range from 98.3 /32, trending higher and sideways. The 10 year Note is inclined to rally and move up to a target of 101.10.

Last week, the U.S. stock market rallied on Tuesday and Friday, falling on the other days. The result was a slight advance for the week. The S&P 500 ranged between 919.72 and 939.61, closing up at 933.41. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)36.47%.

This week, the U.S. stock market is in a rising trend, beginning from the week ending March 21. The NASDAQ index has, weeks ago, ended its three year decline. The S&P is now on the edge of initially breaking out of its three-plus years, down trending correction. The March of 2000, down trend has not ended for the Dow indices and overall indications have the market eventually returning lower, testing 804 (S&P 500). The market is now trading at the upper end of a six month, sideways resulting pattern. The S&P 500's near break-out level may attract a continued advance, however, it is also likely to at least retrace, down to 920.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index drifted further down, into the consolidating range of five years ago. The DX moved in a range of 96.84 to 94.68, closing lower for the week, at 94.98.
This week, the dollar index is below its support range of a potential rebound, still very oversold and poised for a rally. World events and economics have long prevented the DX from moving up and a depressed DX serves as a lowered interest rate and a lower cost of exports for the US economy. Lower crude oil and other priced imports are needed for a balance of trade, to complete a process of restarting the US and world economic engines.
Last week, the Euro-Currency rose, into its former consolidating range of five years ago. It traded between 1.1205 and 1.1537, closing higher last week, at 1.1491.

The EC begins this week, still holding at the top of its current, over-bought range. The EC is well positioned to break down from its prolonged advance but it is lingering at this upper level, until the DX will rebound. A pull-back will commence with plain signs of returning economic activity in the US defined by a rise in yields and interest rates. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to excessive elevations.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-cash) price moved up, last week. It traded in a range of $25.73 to $27.73, closing higher, at $27.73. As forecast, the market is in range-bound movement, reacting to an unsettled Middle East and post-war Iraq.

This week, CO's (cash) price is in an advancing trend. The market is likely to trade down to a nearby $25.68 but it is trending higher, toward $30.55.

The (NY-HU-cash) gasoline price moved up, last week. The market traded in a range of $.7602 and $.6873, closing higher, at $.7602.

This week, gasoline's (cash) price is in a marginally supported, advancing trend. The market may trade down to $.6831 but if that holds, a rebound will move it up, toward $.7949.

The (NY-HO-cash) price of heating oil continued moving lower, last week. It traded between $.7626 and $.7143, closing down, at $.7264.

This week, the HO (cash) market price is still trending lower. Upper targets are at $.8248 and $1.0045 but winter market demand is distant for now and lower (cash) price targets are waiting, beginning at $.6888 and $.6493. If those lows do not provide support, a lower target is $.5603.

The (NY-NG-cash) natural gas price moved up, last week. It ranged from $5.23 to $5.73 closing higher, at $5.73.

This week, the NG (cash) market is in a broad trading range with an upper target of $7.45 and lower targets of $3.915, $3.21, and $2.835. The immediate trend is on track, continuing from the November of 2001 low, to possibly test the recent top.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-19-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins at 3.462% and S&P 500 starts at 944.30)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note continued moving lower. Its range extended the down trend, moving between 3.671% and 3.437%, closing lower for the week, at 3.462%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate continued downward in its primary trend and hit the low target of 3.589%.

This week, the 10-year Note’s yield rate is still in a trend, pointing lower. But, the rate is at a potential bottom, turning point of the downtrend. The rate is in a downtrend of January 2000 but now, due for a rebound. Upper targets are: 3.537%, 3.808%, 3.995%, 4.095, 4.415% and 4.61%.
Last week, the 10-year T-note moved higher. The T-note ranged between 99.8 and 101.12, closing slightly up, at 101.12/32. The T-note remained above the 98.3/32 base, continued higher and hit the 101.10/32 target, all as forecast in Plazaview.

This week begins with the Note in the upper level and rising in the same range as since December. It is rising in a range from 98.3 /32, trending higher and sideways. The 10 year Note may have fewer buyers as the potential for a pull-back evolves.

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved narrowly higher and sideways for most of the week. The result was another small advance for the week. The S&P 500 ranged between 929.30 and 948.65, closing up at 944.30. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)35.73%.

This week, the U.S. stock market is overextended in a rising trend, originated in the week ending March 14. The NASDAQ index has ended its three year decline. The S&P is now breaking out of its three year, down trend. But, indications have the market eventually returning lower, probably testing 804 (S&P 500). The market is now trading at the upper end of a seven month, sideways pattern. The progress of the S&P 500 may now attract buyers, however, it is an initial advance, extended and likely to eventually retrace, down to 920 and lower.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved up until Friday, when it gave back the week’s advance. The DX moved in a range of 93.99 to 95.38, closing lower for the week, at 94.08.

This week, the dollar index is oversold and poised for another attempt to rise. World events and economics have long prevented the DX from moving up and a depressed DX serves as a lowered interest rate and a lower cost of exports for the US economy. Lower crude oil and other imports result in improved balance of trade, to complete a process of restarting the US and world economic engines.

Last week, the Euro-Currency fell most of the week but recovered on Friday. Remaining at its former consolidating range of five years ago, it traded between 1.1372 and 1.1624, closing higher, at 1.1576.

The EC begins this week, still holding at the top of its current, over-bought range. The EC is well positioned to break down from its prolonged advance but it lingers at this upper level, until the DX will rebound. A pull-back will commence with plain signs of returning economic activity in the US, defined by a rise in US yields and interest rates. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to excessive elevations, it is poised for a decline.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-cash) price moved up, last week. It continued the trend and traded in a rising trend, ranging from $27.38 to $29.18, closing higher, at $29.13.

This week, CO's (cash) price is in a rising trend. The market has lower targets of $25.68 and $25.23 but it is primarily trending higher, toward $30.55.

The (NY-HU-cash) gasoline price moved up for a second week, last week. The market traded in a range of $.7378 and $.7978, closing higher, at $.7978. As forecast, the market moved higher and hit the target of $.7949.

This week, gasoline’s (cash) price is in a marginally supported, advancing trend. The market has some potential to trade down to $.6831 but a continued rally will move toward $.8519.

The (NY-HO-cash) price of heating oil continued moving in a narrow range, last week. It retraced the prior week’s range, trading between $.711 and $.7643, to close up, at $.7624.

This week, the HO (cash) market price is marginally poised to rise. Upper targets are at $.8248 and $1.0045 but winter market demand is distant for now and lower (cash) price targets are waiting, beginning at $.6888 and $.6493. CO’s rising trend will drag HO higher.

The (NY-NG-cash) natural gas price moved narrowly but higher, last week. It ranged from $5.915 to $6.175 and closed up, at $5.95.

This week, the NG (cash) market is in a broad trading range of $7.45 and $5.73. The immediate trend is rising, continuing from the November of 2001 low. The NG market is now inclined to move toward the top of the range.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-26-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins lower, at 3.333% and S&P 500 starts lower, at 933.22)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note continued moving lower. It extended the down trend, ranging between 3.494% and 3.29%, closing down for the week, at 3.333%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate continued downward in its primary trend.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still in a down trend but the rate is at a potential for the initial bottom of the downtrend. The rate is still in a downtrend, begun in January 2000 but upper targets are waiting at: 3.39%, 3.537%, 3.808%, 3.995%, 4.095, 4.415% and 4.61%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved higher. The T-note ranged between 101.0 and 102.13, closing up, at 102.7/32. The T-note remained above the 98.3/32 base and continued higher.

This week begins with the Note in the upper level and rising in the same range as since December. It is rising in a range from 98.3 /32, trending higher and sideways. The 10 year Note looks to be in a failing advance and a pull-back is likely to evolve.

Last week, the U.S. stock market fell on Monday and partially recovered its loss during the remaining days of the week. The result was a sign of a market losing buyers. The S&P 500 ranged between 942.46 and 912.05, closing up at 933.22. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)36.48%.

This week, the U.S. stock market is overextended in a rising trend, originated in the week ending March 14. On the hopeful side, the NASDAQ index is out of its three year decline. But, indications have the entire market eventually returning lower, probably testing 804 (S&P 500). The market is now trading at the upper end of a seven month, sideways pattern and it can rally within a falling trend. Upper targets at 944.30 and 962.70 have some potential. Recent progress of the S&P 500 may attract buyers, however, that is likely to fail and eventually retrace, down to 920 and lower.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved down. The DX moved in a range of 94.01 to 92.82, closing lower for the week, at 93.05.

This week, the dollar index remains well into an oversold condition and poised to rise to at least 94.08. World events and economics continue to prevent the DX from moving higher. A depressed DX serves as a lowered interest rate and that lowers the cost of exports, supporting the US economy. Lower crude oil and lower priced Chinese exports will complete a process of restarting the US and western world's economic engines. This current scenario keeps the dollar depressed.

Last week, the Euro-Currency rallied higher. It traded between 1.1607 and 1.1837, closing up, at 1.183.

The EC begins this week, still holding at the top of its current, very over-bought range. The EC is well positioned to break down from its advance but it lingers at this upper level, while the DX is held down by low U.S. interest rates. A pull-back will commence with returning economic activity in the US, probably defined by a rising trend in U.S. interest rates. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to excessive elevations, it is poised for a decline, initially to 1.1576 and lower.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-cash) price moved up, last week. It continued the trend and traded in a rising trend, ranging from $29.10 to $29.18, closing marginally higher, at $29.88.

This week, CO's (cash) price is in a rising trend. The market has lower targets of $25.68 and $25.23 but it is primarily trending higher, toward $30.55.

The (NY-HU-cash) gasoline price finished higher last week. The market traded in a range of $.754 and $.8353, closing up, at $.8353. As forecast, the market continued higher in an advancing trend.

This week, gasoline's (cash) price is in a marginally supported, advancing trend. The market has future potential to trade down to $.6831 and the current rally will move toward $.8519, $.9382, and $.9867.

The (NY-HO-cash) price of heating oil continued moving in a narrow and depressed range, last week. It held near the upper level of the prior week's range, trading between $.7624 and $.7394, to close down, at $.7478.

This week, the HO (cash) market price is marginally poised to rise. Upper targets are at $.8248 and $1.0045 but winter market demand is now distant and lower (cash) price targets are waiting, beginning at $.6888 and $.6493. CO's rising trend may delay HO's price decline and for now, HO is moving between targets of $.8284 and $.6888.

The (NY-NG-cash) natural gas price moved narrowly last week and within the prior week's range. It ranged from $5.94 to $6.15 and closed marginally lower ($-.01), at $5.94.

This week, the NG (cash) market is in a broad trading range of $7.45 and $5.73. The immediate trend is rising, continuing from the November of 2001 low. The NG market is inclined to move toward the top of the range.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-2-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins higher, at 3.484% and S&P 500 starts higher, at 963.59)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note rallied up for most of the week but gave back most of the advance, to close at small rise by Friday. It ranged between 3.316% and 3.484%, closing slightly higher for the week, at 3.35%. As described in Plazaview, the rate was at a potential bottom and the ensuing rally elevated it to hit the forecast target of 3.39%.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still in a down trend but the rate is at good potential for the (initial) bottom of the down trend and a rise of is the logical result of being oversold. The rate is still in the downtrend, begun in January 2000 but upper targets are waiting at: 3.431%, 3.537%; and, potentially: 3.808%, 3.995%, 4.095, 4.415% and 4.61%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved up and down, in a sideways direction. The T-note ranged between 101.2/32 and 102.13/32, closing (-3/32) slightly lower, at 102.4/32. The T-note remained above the 98.3/32 base.

This week begins with the Note at its upper level and rising in the same range as since December. It is rising in a range from 98.3 /32, trending higher and sideways. The 10 year Note looks to be in a potentially failing advance and a pull-back may be forced, due to the 30 year T-bond's already topping indications.

Last week, the U.S. stock market revived its upward momentum. The S&P 500 ranged between 927.33 and 965.38, closing up at 963.59. As forecast in Plazaview, upper targets had some potential and these were hit at 944.30 and 962.70. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)34.42%.

This week, the U.S. stock market made another price breakout from its 2000 (year) downtrend. That is significant but the market is overextended in its rising trend, originated in the week ending March 14. Several weeks ago, the NASDAQ index was first to break out of its three year decline. The market has been elevated to breakout levels but technical indications have the entire market eventually returning lower, probably testing 804 (S&P 500). The past two months have been the most constructive toward an upward turn of direction, since the market began its decline in March of 2000. Recent market progress may attract momentum buyers, however, that is due to fail on this advance and eventually retrace, down to 920 and lower.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved up for a change of direction. The DX moved in a range of 92.21 to 93.92, closing only a little higher for the week, at 93.27. As forecast in Plazaview, the dollar was poised to rally toward 94.03 and it nearly did so.

This week, the dollar index remains well into an oversold condition and poised to rise to at least 94.08. World events and economics prevent the DX from moving higher. A depressed DX serves as a lowered interest rate and that lowers the cost of exports, supporting the US economy. Lower crude oil and lower priced Chinese exports will complete a process of restarting the US and western world's economic engines. This scenario keeps the dollar depressed.

Last week, the Euro-Currency dropped for a change. It traded between 1.1933 and 1.1695, closing up, at 1.1775. As forecast in Plazaview, the EC was over-bought and it nearly reached the initial target of 1.1576.

The EC begins this week, still holding at the top of its current, very over-bought range. The EC is well positioned to break down from its advance but it lingers at this upper level, while the DX is held down by low U.S. interest rates. A pull-back will commence with returning economic activity in the US, probably defined by a rising trend in U.S. interest rates. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to excessive elevations, it is poised for a decline, initially to 1.1576 and lower.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved sideways, last week. It traded in a range of $25.90 to $26.81, closing marginally higher, at $26.60.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is primarily trending higher, toward $26.26, $28.01 and $30.02.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price finished higher last week. The market traded in a range of $.7155 and $.7375, closing up, at $.7375.

This week, gasoline's (Dec-futures) price is in an trend, moving higher. The market has future potential to trade back up to the March high level of $.8325 and the currently rising trend is heading there.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved sideways but ended higher for last week. It held in its rising trend and ranged between $.7422 and $.77, to close up, at $.7662.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price is in a rising trend. The trend is likely to carry it up to $.812. But, winter market demand is distant and summer's progress may cause the market to wander. CO's rising trend may prevent HO's price decline and for now, HO is moving higher.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas price moved down for most of the week but recovered at a gain last week. It ranged between $5.16 and $6.519, closing marginally higher, at $6.519.

This week, the NG (Dec-futures) market is seeking its top price. The market may test higher but that will only result in a failing rally. The NG market needs to pull back and lower targets are waiting at $6.099 and $5.193. The immediate trend is rising but it appears due for a down turn.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-9-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins at 3.352% and S&P 500 starts higher, at 987.76)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note moved within and below the prior two weeks’ range, and finished nearly unchanged by Friday. It ranged between 3.463% and 3.243%, closing slightly higher for the week, at 3.352%. As described in Plazaview, the rate was at a potential bottom and the brief rally moved it to the forecast target of 3.431%.

This week, the 10-year Note’s yield rate is still in a down trend but the rate is also at good potential for the (initial) bottom of the down trend and a rise is the logical result of being oversold. The rate is still in the downtrend, begun in January 2000 but upper targets are waiting at: 3.537%; and, potentially: 3.808%, 3.995%, 4.095, 4.415% and 4.61%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved briefly above the prior two weeks’ range. The T-note ranged between 101.6/32 and 103.3/32, closing (+1/32) slightly lower, at 102.5/32. The T-note remained above the 98.3/32 base.

This week begins with the Note at its upper level and rising in the same range as since December. It is rising in a range from 98.3 /32, trending higher and sideways. The 10 year Note looks to be in a potentially failing advance and a pull-back may be forced, due to the 30 year T-bond’s already topping indications.

Last week, the U.S. stock market continued its upward momentum. The S&P 500 ranged between 964.47 and 1007.69, closing higher, at 987.76. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is out of its down trending correction and momentum buyers continued the advance. At last week’s close, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)32.77%.

This week, the U.S. stock market’s NASDAQ and S&P 500 are out of the down trending correction, begun in March of 2000. That is a significant development but the market is now overextendd in a rising trend, originated in the week ending March 14. While the market indices have been elevated to breakout levels, technical indications have the entire market eventually returning lower, probably back to the March level of 804 (S&P 500). The current advance has been most constructive, toward an upward turn of direction, since the market began its decline in March of 2000. The current advance attracts momentum buyers, however, the advance will have to correct and eventually retrace, down to 920, probably lower.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved up at first, down to the prior week’s low, turned and tested higher. The DX moved in a range of 94.05 to 92.25, closing with a small advance for the week, at 93.48. As forecast in Plazaview, the dollar was poised to rally toward 94.03 and it did that.

This week, the dollar index remains well into an oversold condition and poised to rally again, to at least 94.08. World events and economics prevent the DX from moving higher. A depressed DX serves as a lowered interest rate and that lowers the cost of exports, supporting the US economy. Lower crude oil and lower priced Chinese exports will complete a process of restarting the US and western world’s economic engines. This scenario keeps the dollar depressed and it requires time to evolve.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved down, from its current peak. It traded between 1.1889 and 1.1632, closing lower, at 1.1704. As forecast in Plazaview, the EC was over-bought and for a second week, it nearly reached the initial target of 1.1576.

The EC begins this week, still holding at the top of its current, very over-bought range. The EC is well positioned to break down from its advance but it lingers at this upper level, while the DX is held down by low U.S. interest rates. A pull-back will commence with returning economic activity in the US, probably defined by a rising trend in U.S. interest rates. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to technically excessive elevations, it is poised for a decline, initially to 1.1576 and lower.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved higher, last week. It traded in a range of $26.50 to $27.82, closing up, at $27.82. As forecast in Plazaview, this market was moving higher and it hit the initial target at $26.26.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is primarily trending higher, toward $28.01 and $30.02.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price finished higher as forecast in Plazaview for last week. The market traded in a range of $.736 and $.7633, closing up, at $.7633.

This week, gasoline’s (Dec-futures) price is in a trend, moving higher. The market has future potential to trade back up to the March high level of $.8325. The currently rising trend is heading there.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved higher as forecast in Plazaview for last week. It held in its rising trend and ranged between $.7535 and $.7968, to close up, at $.7968.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price is in a rising trend. The trend is likely to carry it up to $.812. But, winter market demand is distant and summer’s progress may cause the market to wander. CO’s rising trend may prevent HO’s price decline and for now, HO is moving higher.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas price moved higher last week. It ranged between $6.50 and $6.88, closing up, at $6.772.

This week, the NG (Dec-futures) market is seeking its top price. The market may test higher with the other energy markets but a failing rally is due for NG as it is more extended to its top than are the other markets. The NG market will eventually have to correct, back to lower targets at $6.099, $5.60 and $5.193. The immediate trend is rising but technically, it is vulnerable.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-16-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins at 3.104% and S&P 500 starts at 988.61)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note moved lower. It ranged between 3.318% and 3.083%, closing down for the week, at 3.104%. As described in Plazaview, the rate was at a potential bottom of a down-trend but a rally did not materialize.

This week, the 10-year Note’s yield rate is still in its down trend but the rate is also at a likely turning point for the (initial) bottom of the current down trend. The downtrend, begun in January 2000, is in effect but many upper targets are waiting at 3.168%, 3.352%, 3.537%; and higher: 3.808%, 3.995%, 4.095, 4.415% and 4.61%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved higher. The T-note ranged between 102.5/32 and 104.1/32, closing (+2.1/32) slightly lower, at 104.6/32.

This week begins with the Note nearing a top but still likely to make higher levels. It is trending higher and rising back to the same range as last October. The 10 year Note looks to be in a potentially failing advance and a pull-back may develop in a few weeks as the 30 year T-bond is already indicating top forming indications.

Last week, the U.S. stock market continued its upward momentum but traded inside the prior week’s range and gave back most of the week’s advance on Friday. The S&P 500 ranged between 972.59 and 1002.74, closing slightly up, at 988.61. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is out of its down trending correction and momentum buyers are making the advance. At last week’s close, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)32.71%.

This week, the U.S. stock market’s NASDAQ and S&P 500 are out of the down trending correction, begun in March of 2000. Meanwhile, the Dow Industrials have remained in the downtrend. The market is now overextended from its rise from the week ending March 14. While some of the market indices have advanced to breakout levels, technical indications have the entire market eventually returning lower, probably back to the March level of 804 (S&P 500). The current advance attracts momentum buyers, however, this advance will correct, eventually retracing down to 920 and probably lower.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index consolidated for a third week. The DX moved in a range of 93.67 to 92.20, closing near the low for the week, at 92.22. As forecast in Plazaview, the dollar was poised to rally but expectations of a reduced Federal Funds rate depressed the DX.

This week, the dollar index remains well into an oversold condition and poised to rally again, to at least 94.08. World events and economics prevent the DX from moving higher. A depressed DX serves as a lowered interest rate and that lowers the cost of exports, supporting the US economy. Lower crude oil and lower priced Chinese exports will complete a process of restarting the US and western world’s economic engines. This scenario and a comparatively low interest rate keeps the dollar depressed.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved up by the end of the week and consolidated the range for a third week. It traded in a range of 1.1877 and 1.166, closing higher, at 1.1863. As forecast in Plazaview, the EC was over-bought and for a third week, it traded in a range of declining highs.

The EC begins this week, still holding at the top of its current, very over-bought range. The EC is well positioned to break down from its advance but it lingers at this upper level, while the DX is held down by low U.S. interest rates. A pull-back will commence upon returning economic activity in the US, probably defined by a rising trend in U.S. interest rates. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to technically excessive elevations, it is poised to fall, initially to 1.1576 and lower.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved higher but fell back, last week. It traded in a range of $26.75 to $28.23, closing down, at $27.18. As forecast in Plazaview, this market was moving higher and it hit the initial target at $28.01.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is still trending higher, toward $27.82, $28.23, and $30.02.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price finished lower. The market traded in a range of $.7762 and $.7382, closing down, at $.7382.

This week, gasoline’s (Dec-futures) price is in an overextended, rising trend. The market has moved in a broad range and may need to redefine its base by falling back to $.72 or even $.69 Future potential to trade back up to the March high level of $.8325 rides on the still rising trend.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved higher but turned down by the end of last week. It ranged between $.808 and $.7564, to close down, at $.7662.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price is in a rising trend. The trend is likely to carry it up to $.8056 and $.812. But, winter market demand is distant and summer’s progress may cause the market to wander down to $.73.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas price moved higher but as forecast in Plazaview, it fell back and hit the target of $6.099 last week. It ranged between $6.828 and $6.06, closing down, at $6.173.

This week, the NG (Dec-futures) market is still forming a top price. The market may still test the recent high but more failing rallies are likely for NG as it is well extended to its top. The NG market will eventually correct, back to lower targets at $5.60 and $5.193. The immediate trend is rising but technically, it is vulnerable to testing lower.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-23-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins higher at 3.433% and S&P 500 starts up at 995.69)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note turned and moved higher. It ranged between 3.074% (a multi-year low) and 3.433%, closing up for the week, at 3.396%. As described in Plazaview, the rate was at a potential bottom of a down-trend and it moved up, hitting targets 3.168% and 3.352%.

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still in its down trend but the rate has turned and it is capable of moving higher, at least to 3.537%. More upper targets are at 3.808%, 3.995%, 4.095, 4.415% and 4.61%. Although the market has turned up, the downtrend, begun in January 2000, is still in effect and the market will eventually return lower to at least 3.266%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note moved lower. The T-note ranged between 104.11/32 and 101.10/32, closing (-2.4/32) slightly lower, at 102.2/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Note was near a top and the advance was due to fail.

This week begins with the Note dropping from its recent advance. A rally to rest 104.6/32 remains possible but it is primarily heading toward 100 and at that level, could move sideways for several weeks or longer.

Last week, the U.S. stock market continued its upward momentum on Monday but gave back most of the advance by the end of the week. The S&P 500 ranged between 988.61 and 1015.33, closing (+7.08) up, at 995.69. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended in its advance and the market nearly ended with a loss for the week. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)32.23%.

This week, the U.S. stock market is overextended in its rise from the week ending March 14. The current advance attracts momentum buyers and future rallies may fail before the buyers are discouraged. The recent advance appears to be within a bear market. Retracement is likley, down to 920 at first and eventually lower. Technical indications have the entire market eventually retracing lower, probably back to the October and March level of 804 (S&P 500).

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved up and out of its prior weeks of consolidation. The DX moved in a range of 91.88 to 94.27, closing (+2.05) up, at 94.27. As forecast in Plazaview, the dollar was poised to rally and it also hit the forecast target of 94.08.

This week, the dollar index remains well into an oversold condition and poised to rally again. World events and economics impede the DX from moving higher. A depressed DX serves as a lowered interest rate and that lowers the cost of exports, supporting the US economy. Lower crude oil and lower priced Chinese exports will complete a process of restarting the US and western world's economic engines. This scenario and a comparatively low interest rate keeps the dollar depressed.

Last week, the Euro-Currency moved down and through the consolidation range of the prior weeks. It traded in a range of 1.193 and 1.1555, closing lower, at 1.1602. As forecast in Plazaview, the EC was very over-bought and it fell to the forecast target of 1.1576.

The EC begins this week, still in the over-bought range. The EC is well positioned to break down from its advance but it lingers at this upper level, while the DX is held down by low U.S. interest rates. A major pull-back will commence upon returning economic activity in the US, probably defined by a rising trend in U.S. interest rates. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to technically excessive elevations, it is poised to fall, one day.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved up and down in a narrowing range, last week, ending higher. It traded in a range of $26.62 to $27.57, closing up, at $27.57. As forecast in Plazaview, this market was still trending higher.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is still trending higher, toward $27.82, $28.23, and $30.02.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price moved up and down, in a narrow range but finished at the top of last week's range. The market traded in a range of $.73 and $.7483, closing only marginally up (+.0001), at $.7383.

This week, gasoline's (Dec-futures) price is in a poorly defined trend which may lead to greater price swings. The market has recently covered a broad price range and may need to redefine its base by falling back to $.72 or even $.69. Future potential to trade back up to the March high level of $.8325 is a potential, depending upon the still rising trend. Overall, the market is more inclined to moving higher and defining a top price.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved down to the prior week's low and then recovered with a gain by the end of last week. It ranged between $.7545 and $.782, to close up, at $.7787.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price is in a rising trend. The trend is likely to carry it up to $.8056 and $.812. But, winter market demand is distant and summer's progress may cause the market to wander down to $.73.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas price moved lower but recovered to end last week with as gain. NG-Z ranged between $5.94 and $6.322, closing up, at $6.251.

This week, the NG (Dec-futures) market is still forming a top price. The market may still test the recent ($6.772) high but more failing rallies are likely for NG as it is over-extended at its top. The NG market will eventually correct, back to lower targets at $5.60 and $5.193. The immediate trend is rising but technically, it is vulnerable if it rises.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-30-2003

(Yield rate of the 10 year T-note begins higher at 3.581% and S&P 500 starts lower at 976.22)

Last week, the yield rate of the 10 year T-note continued the prior week's upturn, from a 3.074% multi-year low. It ranged from 3.203% to 3.597%, closing up for the week, at 3.581%. As described in Plazaview, the rate would hit the lower target of 3.266%, as it did. The forecast also described the rate as capable of moving higher, and the Note hit the 3.537% target as forecast. (Note: Tell clients and associates: Plazaview.com = Early and consistent accuracy.)

This week, the 10-year Note's yield rate is still near the bottom of a long term, down trend. But, rate has bounced from its low and it still has momentum to continue higher. More upper targets are at 3.808%, 3.995%, 4.095, 4.415% and 4.61%. Although the market has turned up, the downtrend, begun in January 2000, is still in effect and the T-note will eventually return lower, to at least 3.361%.

Last week, the 10-year T-note continued moving lower. The T-note ranged from 103-9/32 to 100-4/32, closing down, at 100-11/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Note was headed toward 100 and it came within 4/32 of that target.

This week begins with the Note in a falling trend. A level of support is needed and this may be found at 99-8/32 or 99-1/32. If a level of support is established within another week, a rebound to 104-6/32 is potential. Longer term, the Note will move sideways for several weeks or longer.

Last week, the U.S. stock market turned down from its recent upward momentum. The S&P 500 ranged between 995.25 and 973.80, closing (-19.47) lower, at 976.22. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 is overextended in its advance and overdue to sink back down. At last week's close, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was (-)33.56%.

This week, the U.S. stock market backed down from the top of a three-month, momentum driven rise. It is currently attempting to consolidate and regain its upward momentum. After this phase of consolidation, another rally is likely. But, the market is now in a corrective down trend and any rally will become vulnerable to eventual failure. The recent advance appears to be still within a bear market. Retracement, down to 920 and eventually back to the October / March level of 804 (S&P 500) is the eventual direction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved up for the second week and remained out of its prior weeks of consolidation. The DX moved in a range of 93.50 to 95.28, closing (+.88) up, at 95.15. As forecast in Plazaview, the dollar remained in an oversold condition, poised to rally again, as it did.

This week, the dollar index remains in an oversold condition and trending higher. The DX is poised to move further up and with time, to the 1.00 target and potentially consolidate there. World events and economics have impeded the DX from moving higher but (FX) foreign exchange market forces are now correcting an extremely oversold DX .

Last week, the Euro-Currency continued moving lower and remained below the consolidation range of the prior weeks. It traded in a range of 1.1623 to 1.14, closing lower, at 1.1435. As forecast in Plazaview, the EC was still in the over-bought range.

The EC is well positioned to break down from its advance and may now be heading for the 1.07 area. Before moving much lower, a minor rally may be attempted and 1.1542 is the upper target for that. A clearly trending pull-back will commence upon returning economic activity in the US, probably defined by a rising trend in U.S. interest rates. Prior months of price advance have pushed the EC to technically excessive elevations, it is poised to fall, one day.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-Dec., futures) price moved sideways, last week. It traded in a range of $27.15 to $28.03, closing (+$.17), at $27.74. As forecast in Plazaview, this market was still trending higher and as forecast, it hit the $27.82 target.

This week, CO's (Dec futures) price is top heavy but still trending higher, toward $28.23, and $30.02.

The (NY-HU-Dec., futures) gasoline price moved in a sideways range, last week. The market traded in a range of $.738 to $.763, closing up (+.0112), at $.7495.

This week, gasoline's (Dec-futures) price is in a rising trend, however faltering. The market has moved into a consolidating range and appears inclined to move sideways. It needs to eventually rise and define its upper limit, before falling back to $.72 or even $.69. The upper potential is to the March high level of $.8325, depending upon the still rising trend. Overall, the market is now more inclined to moving higher and finding a top price.

The (NY-HO-Dec., futures) price of heating oil moved up and sideways last week. It ranged between $.7683 and $.7979, to close (+$.0034) up, at $.7821.

This week, the HO (Dec-futures) price is in a rising trend. The trend is likely to gradually bring it up to $.7979, $.8056 and $.812. Winter market demand is at its summer low point the market can drift down to $.73.

The (NY-NG-Dec., futures) natural gas price had a brief rally and then, moved lower for most of last week. NG-Z ranged between $6.46 and $5.78, closing up, at $5.788. A failing rally was forecast in Plazaview.

This week, the NG (Dec-futures) is trending lower, down from an overextended top price. The NG market will eventually correct, back to lower targets at $5.60 and $5.193. With that decline eventually completed, a rebounding turn from those levels would get the market headed back up, toward the recent $6.772 high. The immediate trend has been falling since June 9.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>


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