Plazaview.com

 Forecast Records - 2nd Qtr. of 2001

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-2-2001 (S&P starts at 1160.33)

Last week the U.S. stock market continued to recover in most areas as the Dow and the S&P 500 rallied. As described in Plazaview, the stock market was (and still is) oversold, last week's action was as forecast. With capital flowing to the relative safety of blue chips, the Dow did much better and closed up, at 9878.78. The S&P 500 finished up for the week at 1160.33. For the year so far, the S&P 500 was improved but down for this year by (-12.11%).

This week the major indices follow the sixth week in a technically oversold condition. The Dow is the least oversold of these. Using Dow Industrial Average as an example, it begins this week at 9878. It is in a trading range between 9467 and 9976. The recovery may continue and this may expand the upper range but no floor of support has been established. Current advances are not sustainable but the markets are technically in an oversold condition and this will fuel another advance. The cumulative effect of lowered interest rates and increasing expectations of lower income taxes will encourage buyers. These are short term conditions. The markets are still in a process of correcting the unusual (1995 - 1999) degree of advance.

Last week the (June) bond ranged in a wide move downward as forecast in Plazaview. The (June) T-bond closed down by 198 basis points at 104 & 6/32. It hit two of the lower targets as forecast in Plazaview. This week may be different. The Bond has been testing its top level for many weeks and while it fell from the ceiling last week, the Bond may return one more time to test the upper levels. This week, the (June) Bond may be pulled in both directions as it is briefly attracted to higher targets of 106.4 and 106.28; lower targets are at 100.22, and 99.3.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index moved higher again, closing at 117.49. As previously described in Plazaview, a temporary platform of price support has been constructed in the past and this supports the current advance. The Dollar is also in a long term, rising trend. For this week, the Dollar may be on its way to higher ground and returning to the upper target of 118.56. Eventually, lower targets of 116.61 to 113.04 will cause a decline and sideways action. OPEC's intentions for marginally higher crude oil prices are supportive of a rising dollar.

The NY gold (April) market moved down, past the $258.4 target and closed near it at $257.9 as forecast in Plazaview. This week, the NY gold market still has a good base of price support and the market is likely to trade down to test it again. After the bottom is more certain, gold will attempt higher targets of $268.1 and $271.5.

The NY crude oil (June) market was moved up but failed to sustain the advance and then tested lower as described in Plazaview. CO settled down for the week, closing at $26.57. Higher prices will return but rallies are not yet sustainable. CO is still seeking a base of technical support. The (June) range has upper targets at $28.54 and $28.29 but first, the lower target at $25.47 is more likely to be tested.

The NY gasoline market moved up and down to the target price as described in Plazaview last week . The (June) HU contract recovered to close marginally higher for the week at $.8992. Gasoline has been in an approximate $.12 range and moving sideways since July of last year. HU is currently approaching the top of the range but it has a poorly defined price base. The market will range more widely over the next few weeks. A wider price range is between (June) targets of $.9368 and $.7835. Gasoline has an upward bias, subject to the increased demands of seasonal usage but technically, it is destined to retest the price base.

The NY (June) heating oil market briefly rallied but as described in Plazaview, the rally was unsustainable and the (June) HO closed down at $.6962, hitting the lower price target. This week the (June) contract is in a falling trend but HO is less vulnerable to noticeable selling; it is currently near the support of a potential price bottom. An unlikely rally would move (June) HU up to the target of $.7336 and a far more distant target is $.7722. With a limited downward bias, range bound movement is expected for this week.

The NY natural gas market hit the first upper target and nearly hit the lower one in a volatile range last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The (June) NG closed down at $5.072, near the bottom of the week's range. Technically, NG is potentially volatile. The top price formation is not yet complete and a price base is also undefined. This week's trading action has a potential for upward targets of $5.92 and a distant $6.015; lower targets are at $5.00 and $4.675. The lower target is close enough to expect continued selling this week.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-9-2001 (S&P starts at 1128.43)

Last week the U.S. stock market moved closely within a (9485.71 - 9918.05) range on the Dow as compared with the (9467 to 9976) range forecast in the prior week's Plazaview. A cycle of capital rotation from risk sectors to "blue chips" continued while the stock market was (and still is) oversold, as described in Plazaview. With capital flowing to the relative safety of blue chips, the Dow closed down, at 9791.09. The S&P 500 finished down for the week at 1128.43. For the year so far, the S&P 500 was down by (-14.53%). This was a constructive week and the market appears to be building a base from which it can rally.

This week the major indices follow the seventh week in a technically oversold condition. The Dow is still the least oversold of these. The Dow Industrial Average begins this week still in the forecasted trading range, between 9467 and 9976. The capital markets are inclined to buy on the least bit of good news and a rally may expand the upper range but no floor of price support has been established. Although a rally is due, current advances are not yet sustainable. The cumulative effect of lowered interest rates and increasing expectations of lower income taxes will encourage buyers. These are short term conditions. The markets are mostly in a process of correcting the unusual (1995 - 1999) market advance.

Last week the (June) bond moved in a more narrow range than in the previous week. As forecast in Plazaview, the Bond moved down and then reversed to the direction of its upper levels. The (June) T-bond closed higher, at 104 & 21/32. The Bond has been testing its top level for many weeks and it may return again, to test the upper levels. This week, the (June) Bond is inclined to move higher but a rally in the stock market would limit the move to higher targets of 106.4 and 106.28; lower targets are at 100.22, and 99.3.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index moved down, closing at 114.66. As previously described in Plazaview, a temporary platform of price support has been constructed in the past and this supported the advancing trend for the past thirteen weeks. For this week, the Dollar will be at a critical level. Unless the movement is resumed to the up side, the Dollar may lose its momentum to the upper target of 118.56. Lower targets of 116.61 to 113.04 will then attract a decline and sideways action. The long term trend is up but this week may define the short term direction.

The NY gold (June) market moved down to test its base of support as forecast in Plazaview and then it recovered to close higher, at $260.9. This week, the NY gold market still has a good base of price support. Although the market is likely to test it again and after the bottom is more certain, gold will attempt higher levels. Gold (June) is in a range of approximately $276. - $256.

The NY crude oil (June) market was moved up for most of the last week but not quite to the targets described in Plazaview. CO settled up for the week, closing at $27.38. This week, CO is moving in a range of approximately $30. - $24. CO is seeking a base of technical support and potentially testing overhead resistance as these are loosely defined by the market. The (June) range has upper targets at $28.29 and $28.54, the lower target is at $25.47.

The NY gasoline market moved almost steadily up last week and approaching the top of its current range, it hit the $.9368 target price as described in last week's Plazaview. The (June) HU contract closed higher for the week at $.9346. Gasoline is now testing for higher levels but it has reached its initial target and should now retrace back down to about $.8900. HU has a poorly defined price base and the market is likely to range more widely over the next few weeks. A wider price range is in excess of the current, upper level and a lower (June) target is $.7835. Fundamentally, gasoline is at the beginning stage of seasonally increased usage demand but technically, it is destined to retest the price base.

The NY (June) heating oil market rallied last week and this seasonally unlikely rally nearly hit the upper target price as described in last week's Plazaview. The (June) HO closed up at $.712. This week the (June) contract is still in a falling trend and if the nearby overhead resistance prevents further price advancement, a potential price bottom awaits to be tested again. An unlikely rally would move (June) HU up to the nearest target of $.7336; a far more distant target is $.7722. With a downward bias, range bound movement is expected for this week.

The NY natural gas market first moved lower and hit the $5.00 (June) target, specified in Plazaview. Then, NG spiked up last week in a volatile move as also forecast in Plazaview. The (June) NG closed up at $5.441 for the week. For this week, the market remains volatile. The top price formation is not yet complete and a price base is also undefined. This week's trading action has a potential for upward targets of $5.92 and a distant $6.015; the lower target is $4.675.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-16-2001 (S&P starts at 1183.50)

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved higher on a rally that carried it above its range, as forecast in the prior week's Plazaview. The market was overdue for a rally from its oversold condition. The Dow closed up, at 10,126.94; the S&P 500 closed up for the week at 1183.50. For the year so far, the S&P 500 was improved last week by about (4%) but still down by (-10.36%). This was a second constructive week and the market appears to be moving above a potential base of future price support.

This week, the major indices are poised to continue higher, extending the initial advance. The capital markets are inclined to buy on the least bit of good news from business and political areas. A rally is likely to continue expanding the upper range but no floor of price support has been established. Current advances are reactionary corrections and not yet reliable. These are short term conditions. The markets are still in a process of correcting the unusual (1995 - 1999) market advance.

Last week, the (June) bond resumed a downward move. The Bond did not test its upper levels, as described in Plazaview, the stock market's rally limited upward movement and capital flowed back into the stock market. The (June) T-bond closed lower, at 102.10/32. This week, the (June) Bond is inclined to move lower again as it now has marginal prospects for a significant rally. Lower targets are at 100.22, and 99.3; higher targets of 106.4 and 106.28 are unlikely for this week.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index moved higher, closing at 115.54. As previously described in Plazaview, a temporary platform of price support has now supported the advancing trend for the past fourteen weeks. For this week, the Dollar is at a critical level and it must resume its upward momentum or the current trend will fail. It is likely to continue higher, to the upper target of 118.56. Less likely for this week, selling action would break the trend and eventual, lower targets of 116.61 to 113.04 will then attract a decline and sideways action. The long term trend is in an upward direction.

The NY gold (June) market moved narrowly last week and then closed unchanged, at $260.9. This week, the NY gold market still has a good base of price support. The market is set for a rally. Gold will attempt higher levels, possibly after testing the base price levels of $256. - $258. Gold (June) is in a trading range of approximately $276. - $256.

The NY crude oil (June) market was moved up for the second week and it hit the targets described in Plazaview. CO settled up for the week, closing at $28.59. This week, CO is in a range of approximately $30. - $24. CO is range bound and it will seek a base of technical support, unless it can break through the nearby overhead resistance of approximately $30. The (June) range has a lower target of $25.47.

The NY gasoline market was pressed steadily higher last week and it exceeded the upper level as described in Plazaview, reaching the limits of its current range. With the summer driving season replacing the winter heating season, the gasoline market rallied most of all the energy markets. The (June) HU contract closed higher for the week at $.9863. HU may linger at the current upper level until buyers realize the limits of excess. HU is now overextended and a further advance will soon attract corrective selling pressure. The lower target is $.8900. HU has a poorly defined price base and the market is likely to range widely over the next few weeks. A wider price range is in excess of the current, upper level and a distant, lower (June) target is $.7835. Fundamentally, gasoline is at the beginning stage of seasonally increased usage demand but technically, it is already extended and destined to retest the price base.

The NY (June) heating oil market rallied last week and although seasonally unlikely, the rally hit both upper target prices, as described in last week's Plazaview. The (June) HO closed up, at $.7612. This week the (June) contract is advanced but in a falling trend. Further price advancement is fundamentally unlikely but a technical price top is not yet established. These diverging conditions indicate market volatility is the next phase.

The NY natural gas market moved least of the energy sector and it remained in a narrow range. The (June) NG closed almost unchanged but slightly down, at $5.438 for the week. For this week, the market remains unstable. The long term trend is up but the price base is poorly defined. The top price formation is not yet complete. A rally would be most constructive as it would better define the range and a potential top. This week's trading action has a potential for upward targets of $5.92 and a distant $6.015; the lower target is $4.675.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-23-2001 (S&P starts at 1242.98)

Last week the U.S. stock market continued higher as forecast in the prior week's Plazaview. The Federal Reserve surprised and encouraged investors with a 50 basis point rate cut. The Dow closed up, at 10,589.8; the S&P 500 closed up for the week at 1242.98. For the year so far, the S&P 500 was greatly improved but still down by (-5.85%). That was a third constructive week and the market has corrected its oversold condition.

This week the major indices will become less steady if they continue higher. It is early but another week of advances may be all that is needed before the indices become top heavy and vulnerable to sellers. Fundamentally, investors are still inclined to buy on the least bit of good news from business and political areas but the technical indicators are calling for a return to lower levels. Current advances are not yet reliable. The markets remain in a time consuming process of correcting the unusual (1995 - 1999) market advance.

Last week the (June) bond resumed its long delayed move to lower levels and hit the first target, as forecast in last week's Plazaview. The (June) T-bond closed lower, at 100.16/32. This week begins with the (June) Bond having already accomplished its initial downward move. It may become overextended and move lower again but a rebound higher to at least 102. (June contract) is indicated. The next lower target is at 99.3. Higher, eventual targets are at 104.5/32, 106.4, and 106.28 but these are unlikely for this week.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index attempted a move to higher prices but then moved down, closing at 114.44. As described in Plazaview, the Dollar is at a critical level and the advancing trend of the prior fourteen weeks failed to hold last week. For this week, the Dollar is vulnerable to more selling action. A recovery rally is possible but overhead resistance may be a greater barrier this week. The upper target of 118.56 remains but reaching this level has been delayed. More selling action would confirm a break of the recent trend and the nearest lower target is 113.04. These are short term conditions, the long term trend is clearly in an upward direction.

The NY gold (June) market moved up last week and closed at $265.4. The market was set for a rally and it did as forecast in Plazaview. This week, the NY gold market still has a good base of price support and it may try to go higher but it has unfinished business on the downside and it will soon trade back down to $260.9. Gold is in a trading range of approximately $276. - $256.

The NY crude oil (June) market attempted higher prices but could not break through overhead resistance and it backed down as described in last week's Plazaview. CO settled down for the week, closing at $27.58. This week, CO is trading in a range of approximately $30. - $24. CO will go lower to seek a base of technical support, unless it can break through the nearby overhead resistance of approximately $29.50.

The NY gasoline market traded higher last week and for a second week, it exceeded the upper level as described in Plazaview. With the summer driving season replacing the winter heating season, gasoline has become the most alluring of all the energy markets. The (June) HU contract closed excessively higher for the week at $1.0156. HU may not linger at this level for much longer. HU is overextended and any further advance will soon fail as it attracts corrective selling pressure. The lower target is $.8900. HU has a poorly defined price base and the market is likely to range widely over the next few weeks. This wider price range is already excessively in the upper level and a distant, lower (June) target is at $.7835. Fundamentally, gasoline is at the beginning stage of seasonally increased usage demand but technically, the price is too high. These opposing forces bring market volatility and that will be the trend for this week.

The NY (June) heating oil market rallied last week but then it collapsed in a volatile market, as forecast in Plazaview. The (June) HO closed down, at $.7526. This week the (June) contract becomes volatile on any advance. A return to lower levels would be in keeping with seasonal fundamentals but technically, the market has not yet formed a top price.

The NY natural gas market moved straight down last week. The (June) NG closed down for the week, at $5.182. For this week, the market is at a critical point; it must rally or it will lose its current trend and sink lower. The long term trend is up but the price base is poorly defined. The top price formation is not yet complete. This week's trading action has a potential for upward targets of $5.92 and a distant $6.015; the lower target is $4.675.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-30-2001 (S&P starts at 1253.05)

Last week the U.S. stock market continued the sector rotation into "blue chip" stocks but remained in a narrow range. The Dow ended the week by closing up, at 10,810; the S&P 500 closed up for the week at 1253.05. For the year so far, the S&P 500 has greatly improved but it was still down by (-5.09%). That was a fourth constructive week of the market correcting its oversold condition.

This week the major indices may continue higher but the advance starts this week at a technical barrier and it must first overcome this. The current advance is an initial push and the indices will soon become top heavy, vulnerable to sellers and inclined to pull back. Fundamentally, short term traders are cautious but investors are inclined to buy on any good news from business and political areas. This week may go higher but early technical indicators are anticipating a return to the lower levels of five weeks ago. Current advances are temporary. The markets remain in a time consuming process of correcting the (1995 - 1999) market advance.

Last week the (June) bond moved in an inside pattern, retracing most of the previous week's middle and lower range. It did not hit the lower target of 99.3 and remained in a static range. The (June) T-bond closed lower, at 100.8/32. This week begins with the (June) Bond having already accomplished its initial downward move but not yet hitting the 99.3 target. Lower levels are possible and the Bond may then become overextended. The result will be a rebound higher to at least (102. June contract.) The lower target is at 99.3, while the higher targets are at 104.5/32, 106.4, and 106.28 but these are unlikely for this week.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index moved in limited range but ended the week with a small advance, closing at 115.58. The Dollar has developed a trading pattern of attempted but failed new highs. Another attempt to rally has potential. For this week, the Dollar is due for a breakout from its compressed price range. An incomplete top and a selling pattern are established, but a rally is very possible this week. The upper target of 118.56 remains delayed. Selling action would confirm a break of the recent trend and the nearest lower target is 113.04. These are short term conditions, the long term trend is clearly in an upward direction.

The NY gold (June) market moved up but closed down, at $264.3 by the end of last week. The market is in the middle of its current trend but unlikely to find many buyers until the stock market makes a downward move, probably not until after this week. This week the NY gold market has a good base of price support and it may go a little higher but it will soon return to complete unfinished business on the downside. The (June) contract will soon trade back down to $260.9. Gold is in a trading range of approximately $276. - $256.

The NY crude oil (June) market moved lower and then higher by the end of last week. CO settled up for the week, closing at $28.27. This week, CO is trading in a range of approximately $29. - $25. Until there is breakout, CO will be moving in a static and narrowing range. It may do this for a few more weeks.

The NY gasoline market traded down and then back up, it was volatile last week as forecast in Plazaview. For a third week, HU exceeded the upper level as has been described in Plazaview. With the summer driving season arriving and last week's refinery fire in California, gasoline is the most captivating of the energy markets. The (June) HU contract closed excessively higher for the week at $1.046. As stated in the prior week, HU may not linger at this level for much longer. HU is overextended by at least $0.14. Further advances will soon become volatile and fail, corrective selling pressure is building. The lower target is $.8900. The wider price range is already exceeding the upper level and a distant, lower (June) target is at $.7835. Fundamentally, gasoline is at the beginning stage of seasonally increased usage demand but technically, the current price is too high. The market will soon resolve this with corrective selling.

The NY (June) heating oil market was volatile last week. After tracing down, up, and back down again, the (June) HO closed slightly higher, at $.7589. This week the (June) contract is unlikely to sustain a significant advance but it will follow crude oil. HU is in an short term rising trend but seasonally, without fundamental interest.

The NY natural gas market moved straight down last week. The (June) NG closed down for a second week, at $4.867. As described in Plazaview, the market was at a critical point. It did not rally and its current trend was broken, the result was sinking prices. The long term trend is up but the price base is poorly defined and vulnerable to sellers. This week's trading action has a potential for the (June) lower target of $4.675; upward targets are less likely for this week but remain at $5.92 and a more distant $6.015.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-7-2001 (S&P starts at 1266.61)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices continued higher. The Dow ended the week by closing up, at 10,951.24; the S&P 500 closed up for the week at 1266.61. For the year so far, the S&P 500 has greatly improved from its recent low but it was still down by (-4.07%). That was a fifth week of the market correcting from its low point.

This week the major indices are held aloft by the initial advance and this may attract a second wave of buyers, now less defensive as the market recovers. This current advance is only the initial rise, out of a previously oversold condition. After another week or two of continued advances, the indices will become top heavy, vulnerable to sellers and inclined to pull back. This week can go higher but technical indicators are already anticipating a return to the lower levels of five weeks ago. Current advances are temporary as the markets remain in a time consuming process of correcting the (1995 - 1999) market advance.

Last week the (June) bond moved up after two weeks of initial base building. As forecast in last week's Plazaview, the Bond rebounded and moved to the target of 102., closing at 102.11. It did not hit the lower target of 99.3 but did test lower before rising. This week begins with the (June) Bond having accomplished its initial downward move but not yet hitting the 99.3 target. The Bond may move higher again this week in a continued rebound but the Bond is still in a falling trend, without a solid base. The lower target is at 99.3, while the higher target is at 104.5/32. Further out is 106.4, and 106.28 but these upper targets are unlikely for this week.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index moved in a narrow range and ended lower for the week, closing at 115.09. As forecast in last week's Plazaview, the Dollar was due for a breakout from its compressed price range. It broke down from the range and this week has potential to continue moving lower. The long term trend is still rising but the Dollar is in a corrective mode. The upper target of 118.56 remains incomplete and delayed for a while longer. Selling action is likely to follow the recent break down of the trend and the nearest lower target is 113.04.

The NY gold (June) market moved a little higher, to close at $266.5 by the end of last week. This week, the gold market is in the middle of its current trading range. The NY gold market has a good base of price support and it may continue higher but it will soon return to complete unfinished business on the downside. The (June) contract is moving in a range of $276. - $256, with a lower target waiting at $260.9.

The NY crude oil (June) market moved up and down and then closed slightly higher at $28.36. As forecast in last week's Plazaview, CO is trading in a range of approximately $29. - $25. Until there is breakout, CO will be moving in a static and narrowing range. It may do this for a few more weeks.

The NY gasoline market was volatile last week, as forecast in Plazaview, but it managed to close higher. The (June) HU contract closed up for the week at $1.0843. For a fourth week, HU exceeded the upper level as has been described in Plazaview. With the summer driving season anticipated by the market and a recent fire at a California refinery, gasoline buyers are exceedingly aggressive. As stated in the prior weeks, HU may not linger at this level for much longer. HU is overextended by approximately $0.18 and overdue for a correction. The market is mow volatile and corrective selling pressure is building. The lower target is $.8900. A distant and unlikely for now, lower (June) target is at $.7835. Fundamentally, gasoline is at the beginning stage of seasonally increased usage demand but technically, the current price is too high. The market is in a rising trend but it will soon resolve its overbought condition with corrective selling. Lower and more reliable prices will be available to patient buyers.

The NY (June) heating oil market was volatile last week, following crude oil as forecast in Plazaview. The (June) HO closed slightly higher, at $.7657. This week the (June) contract is attempting higher prices but unlikely to sustain a significant advance. It will follow crude oil. HU is in an short term, rising trend but seasonally, it is without fundamental buyer interest.

The NY natural gas market continued lower and hit the price target as forecast last week in Plazaview. The (June) NG closed down for a third week, at $4.49. The trend is now turning lower and the price base is not yet defined. This week's trading action has a potential for a rebound. The price bottom has not been established but the market has now reached its initial, end of season price adjustment. Upward targets are distant and not intended for this week but remain at $5.92 and a more distant $6.015.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-14-2001 (S&P starts at 1245.67)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices attempted to continue higher but failed as the week ended. The Dow ended the week by closing down, at 10,821.3; the S&P 500 closed down for the week at 1245.67. For the year so far, the S&P 500 is greatly improved from its recent low but it was still down by (-5.65%). That was seven weeks since this year's current low point.

This week the major indices are held aloft by the initial advance but more significantly, the first evidence of a break occurred in the downward correction since it began in the week of 3-24-00. The current advance is an initial rise from a potential market correction low and price base. This week may attempt to go higher but as it was last week, technical indicators are already anticipating a return to the year's lowest levels. Current advances are temporary as the markets remain in a time consuming process of correcting the (1995 - 1999) market advance.

Last week the (June) bond moved down by 3.5/32 and within one tick of the 99.3 target as forecast in Plazaview. The June T-bond closed at 99.6/32. This week begins with the (June) Bond having accomplished its initial downward move, near the 99.3 target but the bottom is not yet established. The Bond is now due for the initial rebound but it is still in a falling trend, without a solid base. The lower target is immediate, at 99.3, while the higher target is at 104.5/32, 106.4, and 106.28. These upper targets are unlikely for awhile.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index reversed direction and rallied up, closing at 116.90. The Dollar reverted to its compressed price range. This week has potential to continue moving higher. The long term trend is rising while the Dollar is seeking a temporary top. The upper target of 118.56 remains unfinished. Selling action is likely to follow another attempt to seek higher levels. The nearest lower target is 113.04.

The NY gold (June) market moved higher, closing at $268.3 by the end of last week. This week, the gold market begins near the top of its current trading range. The NY gold market has a good base of price support but it is now potentially due to complete unfinished trading on the downside. The (June) contract is moving in a range of $276. - $256, with a lower target waiting at $260.9.

The NY crude oil (June) market moved up and down in a range just short of both $29. & $27. The market ended the week by closing slightly higher at $28.55. As forecast in last week's Plazaview, CO is trading in a range of approximately $29. - $25. There was a breakout last week, to the up side and this week may bring another rally. A rally could break the range and prices would then move beyond the current limit of $29. The first target is at $29.94. A new upper range may find resistance near $30.

The NY gasoline market was finally turned around and downward last week. As forecast in Plazaview, the market price had become extremely overextended and overdue for corrective selling. The (June) HU contract closed down for the week at $1.0501. This week, the market is still vulnerable to corrective selling pressure but a price top is not established and a strong buying trend is in place. Several weeks of market action will pass before the market makes a top price. Eventually, the lower target will be reached at $.8900. More distant and unlikely for now, the lowest (June) target is at $.7835. Fundamentally, gasoline is at the beginning stage of seasonally increased usage demand but technically, the current price is too high.

The NY (June) heating oil market was following crude oil during most of last week as forecast in Plazaview. The (June) HO closed only slightly lower, at $.7605. This week the (June) contract is in a rising trend and without a price top established. Higher prices may come in concert with a rise in crude oil but this price advance is fundamentally out of season. It may follow crude oil and HO will rise.

The NY natural gas market continued lower again last week and the (June) NG closed down for the fourth week, at $4.278. This selling action has not found a price bottom but it is at or near the initial turning point. This week has an increased potential for a price rebound. Upward targets are distant and not intended for this week but remain at $5.92 and a more distant $6.015. Accessible upper price targets for this week are at $4.49 and $4.867.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-21-2001 (S&P starts at 1291.96)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices continued the recovery and moved higher. Further evidence of a renewed upward trend came with higher closings in the indices as the Dow closed with a gain at 11,301.7; the S&P 500 closed up for the week at 1291.96. For the year so far, the S&P 500 has almost recovered the loses from its recent low but it was still down by (-2.14%). That was eight weeks since this year's current low point.

This week the major indices are still in an initial recovery from the selling pressure that began in the third week of March, 2000. The confirmed evidence of a break from more than one year of a selling trend has occurred in the breakthrough action of the prior two weeks. The current advance is an initial recovery, with a potential price base established at the current market correction's low point of eight weeks ago. This week the markets may continue higher but as in the previous two weeks, early technical indicators are anticipating an eventual return to test near the year's lowest levels. Current advances are constructively setting a renewed, upward trend.

Last week the (June) T-bond neared the contract's expiration and our attention is drawn to the September contract. The T-bond tested the prior week's low and then rallied higher. The June contract hit the 99.3 target as forecast in Plazaview. The (September) contract closed up at 99.25/32. This week begins with the (September) Bond having accomplished its initial downward move, and with a potentially established price base from which to rally higher. As in the prior week, the Bond is now due for the initial rebound but it has yet to break out of its falling trend. Higher price targets are at 100.13/32, 101.17, 103.21, 105.23, and 106.14.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index attempted a minor advance but then moved slightly lower, closing at 116.33. The Dollar could not rise above its current falling trend but held in a static position. This week has the potential to rally in an attempt to break the short term down trend but a price top has been building since early October of last year. The long term trend is rising while the Dollar is seeking a temporary top. The upper target of 118.56 remains still incomplete. Selling action is likely to follow another attempt to seek higher levels. The nearest lower target is at 113.04.

The NY (June) gold market exploded higher last week, gaining $19.5 at the week's closing of $287.8. This week, the gold market begins with an excessive price advance and vulnerable to a price correction. The NY gold market has a good base of price support but corrective selling will bring it back to the (June) target of $268.5 and eventually, to $260.9.

The NY crude oil (June) market rallied again and beyond $29., but found resistance at $30., hitting the target of $29.94, all as forecast in Plazaview. The market ended the week by closing higher at $29.91. For this week, (June) CO has found a higher range and it will move higher again but it must first retreat a little before moving higher or move higher and hold above $30. A temporary retreat would bring the (June) CO to $28.91

The NY gasoline market was volatile as it turned up and down in a wide range last week. As forecast in Plazaview, the market price had become extremely overextended and due for corrective selling. Fundamental buying is perpetuating the high price. By the end of last week, the (June) HU contract closed at the top of the week's range and (+$.0189) higher for the week at $1.069. This week, the market is still in its up trend but vulnerable to corrective selling pressure as it seeks an initial top price. Eventually, the current trend will break and the lower target of $1.0212 will be reached. More distant and unlikely for now, the lower (June) targets are at $.8989 and $.7835. Fundamentally, gasoline is at the beginning of seasonally increased usage demand but technically, the current price is too high. Technicals are often early, while fundamentals bring excessive market movement and opportunity.

The NY (June) heating oil market followed crude oil during most of last week as forecast in Plazaview. The (June) HO closed higher, at $.8044. This week the (June) contract is in a rising trend but seeking a potential price top. Higher prices may come in concert with a rise in crude oil but this price advance is fundamentally out of season and will become vulnerable. The (June) HO contract will eventually correct lower and the first target is at $.7752.

The NY natural gas market held in a very narrow range last week. The (June) NG closed slightly up for the week, at $4.291. As forecast in the prior week's Plazaview, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. As it was last week, this week has an increased potential for a price rebound. Upward targets are distant and not intended for this week but remain at $5.92 and a more distant $6.015. Accessible upper price targets for this week are at $4.49 and $4.867.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-28-2001 (S&P starts at 1277.89)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices traded in a narrow ranged and lingered in a relatively static position. The Dow closed down at 11,005.3; the S&P 500 closed down for the week at 1277.89. For the year so far, the S&P 500 is far from its low for the year of nine weeks ago, but it was still down by (-3.21%).

This week will begin after the market holiday, that is on Monday. The major indices are ready to continue higher as they recently broke out of a long selling pattern, that began in late March of 2000 and ended in early May of 2001. The current advance is an initial recovery, with a potential price base established at the year's lowest point of nine weeks ago. After this initial rise, the markets will be inclined to move down again, to test the base. Early technical indications portend an eventual return to test the year's lowest levels. Current advances are establishing a renewed, upward trend.

Last week the (Sept) T-bond traded inside the prior week's range and closed near the week's low. The (September) contract closed down at 98.19/32. This week begins with the (September) Bond still seeking direction and testing for a price bottom. A potential price base from which to rally higher is already in place. As in the prior two weeks, the Bond is due for an initial rebound but it has not yet moved out of its descending trend. For the September contract, a lower price target is nearby, at 98.13. Higher price targets are 100.13/32, 101.17, 103.21, 105.23, and 106.14.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index finally hit the 118.56 target as forecast in Plazaview for some time. After the market advanced, it moved slightly lower, closing at 118.18. This week has the potential to resume upward movement but technical indications are not in favor of this lasting. A price top has been building since early October of last year and current advances are only retesting at approximately the same levels. The long term trend is rising while the Dollar is seeking a temporary top. Selling action is likely to follow after another attempt to make higher levels. The nearest lower target is at 113.04 and there is also 111.38.

The NY (June) gold market moved directly back down last week, to close at $278.2. As forecast in the prior week's Plazaview, the gold market had an excessive price advance and it was vulnerable to sellers. This week, the NY gold market still has a good price base but more corrective selling will bring gold's price back to the (June contract) target of $268.5 and eventually, to $260.9.

The energy markets' June contract will soon expire and our attention turns to the (September) expirations.

The NY crude oil (Sept.) market rallied on the first two days of the week but fell sharply for the remainder of the week. As forecast in Plazaview, the market expanded its range into the area of $30. but found resistance there. The market ended the week by closing lower at $28.52. For this week, (Sept.) CO is in the initial stage of forming a price top. CO is trending higher but it is likely to move lower before it can resume upward progress. A temporary retreat would bring the (Sept) CO to at least $27.94 and $27.22.

The NY gasoline market was volatile again last week, as it has been for the past several weeks. As forecast in Plazaview, the HU price had become extremely overextended and due for corrective selling. By the end of last week, the (Sept.) HU contract closed lower for the week at $.8656. This week, the market is breaking down from its recently ascending trend and it is vulnerable to more corrective selling pressure. However, the top price has not yet been established and a rebound is expected. Immediate and lower price targets are waiting at $.861, $.8301, and $.7899.

The NY (Sept.) heating oil market followed crude oil more on the rally than on the decline last week. The (Sept.) HO closed only ($.013) lower, at $.7966. This week the (Sept.) contract is in a rising trend but nearby are overhead barriers. Some selling action this week would better prepare the HO market for another rally. The (June) HO contract will eventually correct lower and the first target is at $.7752.

The NY natural gas market moved down but remained in a narrow range last week. The (Sept.) NG closed at $4.148, ($0.3250) lower for the week. As forecast in the prior weeks' Plazaview, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. As in the prior two weeks, this week has a good potential for a price rebound. Upward targets for the Sept. contract are at $4.23, $4.473, and $5.645.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-4-2001 (S&P starts at 1260.67)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices backed down from the recent advance for a second week. The markets remained in a narrow range. The Dow closed slightly down at 10,990.4; the S&P 500 closed down for the week at 1260.67. For the year so far, the S&P 500 is well above this year's low of ten weeks ago, but it was still down by (- 4.51%).

This week the major indices are in a rising trend but the price base has not been confirmed. Although the recent breakout from a downward trend, beginning in late March of 2000, suggests higher prices, the current rise is still an initial recovery phase. With this initial rise, the markets will eventually move back down again, to test the base. Technical indicators anticipate an eventual return, temporarily, to the year's lowest levels.

Last week the (Sept) T-bond traded as forecast in Plazaview. It traded down to hit the 98.13/32 low target and then traded up to hit the 100.13/32 target. The (Sept.) contract closed up last week, at 100.11/32. This week begins with the (Sept.) Bond in a rising trend but with overhead resistance to contend with before it may continue much higher. A potential price base from which to advance is in place and the Bond is in an initial rebound but it has not yet moved out of its prior, descending trend. For the September contract, a lower price target is now at 98.20/32; more significantly, higher price targets are at 101.17/32, 103.21, 105.23, and 106.14.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index resumed its upward move, closing at 119.10. This week has more potential for upward movement but the Dollar is playing out a long top forming scenario. A price top has been building since early October of last year and current advances are only retesting at approximately the same levels with marginally higher prices now resulting. The long term trend is rising. Selling action will eventually follow, after another attempt to make higher levels. The nearest lower target is at 113.04 and there is also 111.38.

The NY gold market promptly moved down last week for a second week. The August contract closed down at $268. As forecast in the prior two weeks' Plazaview forecast, the gold market had an excessive price advance and it this made it vulnerable to sellers. This week, the NY gold market still has a good price base but more corrective selling is likely to test the base.

The NY crude oil (Sept.) market attempted a rally but moved down by the end of last week, closing lower at $28.17. As forecast in Plazaview, the market hit the lower target of $27.94. For this week, (Sept.) CO has not made a price top but it has broken down the recent upward trend. CO will return to test beyond the top as it is still trending higher. But, another temporary retreat would bring the (Sept) CO to at least $27.22.

The NY gasoline market moved down and as forecast in Plazaview, the September contract hit two of the three targets, at $.861 and $.8301. By the end of last week, the (Sept.) HU contract partially recovered but closed lower for the week at $.8498. This week, the market may rebound as it has not yet formed the top price and the trend is rising Lower price targets are waiting for another, eventual correction and $.7899 is primary.

The NY (Sept.) heating oil market declined last week and as forecast in Plazaview, it hit the lower target of $.7752. The (Sept.) HO closed down for the week, at $.7724. This week the (Sept.) contract is in a rising trend and it has not yet formed a top price but the market has not completed its correction. Some additional selling action would better prepare the HO market for another rally. The (June) HO contract may rise to the target of $.7899 but lower targets await at $.7291 and $.7027.

The NY natural gas market moved further down but rallied back to recover part of the decline last week. The market hit the first upper target at $4.23, as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept.) NG closed at $4.046, ($0.1020) lower for the week. As forecast in the prior weeks' Plazaview, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. As in the prior three weeks, this week has good potential for the delayed price rebound. The recent, end of winter selling has become excessive and a correction to upward targets for the (Sept.) contract are at $4.473 and $5.645.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-11-2001 (S&P starts at 1264.96)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices attempted higher prices but were moved back by the end of the week. The S&P 500 index remained inside the previous week's narrow range. The Dow closed slightly down at 10,977.; the S&P 500 closed slightly up for the week at 1264.96. The S&P 500 is above this year's low of eleven weeks ago but as of last week, it was down by (- 4.19%) for the year.

This week begins with the major indices in a holding pattern for the past two weeks and ready to break either up or down. The markets are in a rising trend but the price base has not been confirmed. Although the recent breakout from a downward trend, beginning in late March of 2000, suggests higher prices, the current rise is an initial recovery phase. With this initial rise, the markets will eventually move back down to test the current base. Technical indicators anticipate an eventual return, temporarily, to the year's lowest levels.

Last week the (Sept) T-bond attempted higher prices but then declined by the end of the week. It traded back down to the previous week's closing range. The (Sept.) contract ended slightly down last week, at 100.8/32. This week begins much the same as last week, with the (Sept.) Bond in a rising trend but with overhead resistance to contend with before it may continue much higher. A potential price base from which to advance is in place and the Bond is in an initial rebound but it has not yet moved to break its prior, descending trend. For the September contract, a lower price target is now at 98.20/32; more significantly, higher price targets are at 101.17/32, 103.21, 105.23, and 106.14.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index advanced only marginally higher, as forecast in Plazaview, closing at 119.27. This week has potential for upward movement but the Dollar is playing out a long top forming scenario. A price top has been building since early October of last year and current advances are only retesting at approximately the same levels with marginally higher prices now resulting. The long term trend is rising. Selling action will eventually follow, after another attempt to make higher levels. The nearest lower target is at 113.04 and there is also 111.38.

The NY gold market rebounded higher last week, from its recent downward correction. The August contract closed up at $274.5. This week, the NY gold market begins with a price base of support from which to advance and it has established an upward trend. Direction at this point looks to be turning into a sideways direction.

The NY crude oil (Sept.) market moved up and down in the approximate range of the previous week. By the end of last week, the (Sept.) contract closed slightly higher at $28.63. For this week, CO has not made a price top but it has reestablished an upward trend. CO will return to test beyond the recent top but first, a minor price decline would give this market increased chances for higher levels. A temporary retreat would bring the (Sept.) CO to at least $27.22.

The NY gasoline market moved down for a second week. By the end of last week, the (Sept.) HU contract recovered half the loss but closed lower for the week at $.8362. This week, the market begins in a retreating mode but a rally will come eventually, as it has not yet formed the top price and the trend is rising Immediately higher targets begin at $.8501. More distant and lower price targets are waiting for another, eventual correction and $.7899 is a primary target.

The NY (Sept.) heating oil moved up and down in a relatively narrow range for most of last week. The (Sept.) HO closed only slightly lower for the week, at $.7717. This week the (Sept.) contract is in a rising trend and it has not yet formed a top price but the market has also not completed its downward correction. Some additional selling action would better prepare the HO market for another rally. The (Sept.) HO contract may rise to the target of $.7899 but lower targets await at $.7291 and $.7027.

The NY natural gas market attempted higher price levels as forecast in Plazaview but then the market became volatile for the remainder of the week. The (Sept.) NG closed slightly higher (+$.0190) for the week, at $4.065. As forecast in the prior weeks' Plazaview, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. As in the prior four weeks, this week has good potential for the delayed price rebound to occur. The correction to higher targets will eventually take the (Sept.) contract to $4.473 and $5.645.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-25-2001 (S&P starts at 1225.35)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices attempted to rally but remained in a narrow range. The Dow closed down at 10,604.5; the S&P 500 closed up for the week at 1225.36. The S&P 500 is above this year's low of thirteen weeks ago but as of last week, it was down by (- 7.19%) for the year. As has been forecast in Plazaview, technical indicators anticipate an eventual return, temporarily, to the year's lowest levels.

This week begins with the major indices still in a correction phase but seeking the market's base price, which may bring a return to the year's lowest levels. The markets are in a long term rising trend and while the correction that ran from March of 2,000 through May of 2001 has ended, the process of establishing a base price and a renewed trend is now in progress. The current downward risk is to the April lows. This week is another link in the process of building a market bottom. Last week's action ended with the market well positioned for a rally this week but first, there is overhead resistance to overcome. Measured by the S&P 500, resistance is at approximately 1260. If the market can break through and hold above this resistance, a new leg up may be in progress but this is likely to be short lived and result in a failing rally.

Last week the (Sept) T-bond moved up and broke through the barrier of its former downward trend. The (Sept.) contract ended one tick below its high for last week, at 102.22/32. This week begins with the T-bond in a currently rising trend. The Bond has been rising steadily through the past four weeks. It now has a good price base and capacity to move higher, eventually to 106.14. This advance will come in time but a rally in the stock market (see above) is likely to cause the Bond to move down, temporarily. For the September contract, lower price targets are at 101.26/32, 100.8/32 and 98.20/32; higher price targets are at 103.21, 105.23, and 106.14.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index moved narrowly, within the previous week's range. The Dollar index closed marginally up for the week at 118.72. As described previously in Plazaview, this week has potential for a return to upward movement but the Dollar is playing out a long, top forming scenario. A price top has been building since early October of last year and current advances are only retesting near the same levels with marginally higher prices now resulting. The long term trend is rising but immediately, the T-bond is more vulnerable to selling. This week is relatively critical from a technical stand point, as the Dollar is at a critical point of breaking up or down. While unlikely for this week, the nearest lower target is at 113.04 and there is also the more distant 111.38. Large U.S. corporations would realize increased profits with a lower dollar and continued Federal Reserve rate declines will eventually enable this goal.

The NY gold market traded in a narrow holding pattern last week but then closed $1.00 higher for the week. The August contract closed up at $273.3. This week, the NY gold market has a good base and it is rising on a trend of support from which to continue an advance. Fundamentally, gold has no apparent reason to be in play. The price of gold began climbing in twelve weeks ago, April of this year and peaked in a one week price spike, five weeks ago. It may be interesting to note that until last week, there was no fundamental explanation for the rise in gold prices. Last week, the U.S. State Department announced a very high level of military threat to the U.S., originating from Middle-Eastern terrorists.

The NY crude oil (Sept.) market moved lower for most of last week and through the target of $27.22 as forecast in Plazaview.com. By the end of last week, the (Sept.) contract closed down, at $26.8. For this week, CO has not yet established a price top, nor a clearly defined bottom price but it is rising on an upward trend. The minor price decline, previously forecast in Plazaview, is now complete. There is further downside potential but CO will eventually return to higher levels and test the recent top price.

The NY gasoline market spiked down and through the $.7899 target, as forecast in Plazaview.com. The (Sept.) HU closed down at $.7591. Relative oversupply and reduced usage demand at the wholesale and retail end-market have weakened prices. This week, the market has nearly completed its downward price correction and a rally will result after a period of price base building is complete. The nearest higher target is at $.8163.

The NY (Sept.) heating oil moved down for most of last week and hit the Plazaview target of $.7777. The (Sept.) HO closed near its low for the week, at $.7461. This week the (Sept.) contract remains in a rising trend and it has not formed a top price but the HO market may drift sideways for a week or longer. A top price has not formed, meanwhile, lower price targets await at $.7291, $.7215, and $.7027.

The NY natural gas market rallied last week and then moved back to its recent lows. As the week progressed, the NG market recoiled in response to the falling crude oil market and gave back most of its gains. The (Sept.) NG closed down for the week, at $3.845. As forecast in the prior weeks' Plazaview, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. The price bottom is not yet established but at this point, the prospect of a rally is greater than is the prospect of significantly lower prices. As in the prior six weeks, this week has good potential for a delayed price rebound to occur. A return to higher targets will eventually take the (Sept.) contract to $5.645 and higher.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>