Plazaview.com

 Forecast Records - 1st Qtr. of 2002

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 1-7-2002 (S&P starts at 1172.51)

Last week the U.S. stock markets traded up and down, testing for direction. By the end of the week, the market was advanced and closed in an area of resistance and potential support. Four weeks ago, the market had reached this same (S&P 500: 1170) resistance area and backed down as forecast in Plazaview. In an up and down market last week, the S&P 500 closed up, at 1172.51. The Dow Ind. 30 closed higher for the week, at 10,259.74.

The U.S.A.'s stock market indices have rebounded from the September low point of a correction phase, which began in March of 2000. The September of 2001 low is the current bottom but it is not yet conclusive. While the long term trend remains upward, the immediate trend is only rebounding from an oversold condition. Markets rising on a rebound recovery are more often not a sustainable trend. This week, there is room to move higher but to continue this advance, the market will have to rise through a band of resistance at the current level and above: 1170 through 1265. With time, the current rebound may be followed by a test of the September low.

Last week the (March) T-bond traded up and down in a wide, outside range from the prior week. The (March) Bond closed lower for last week, at 100.07. This week begins with the Bond still in a downward trend, moving sideways, with a nearby and lower target waiting at 99. The T-Bond has not yet found a bottom but it has been due to rally for the past five weeks. This conflict has resulted in five weeks of volatility, which may continue this week or until the 99 target is reached and a base is established.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond consolidated in a narrow range last week. The yield rate ended at 5.566% last week. This week, while the rate has been recently elevated, it is not in a new uptrend. It may probe up and down as the Bond seeks to find its bottom at nearby and lower levels.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index had already rallied to the 118 point of resistance as forecast in Plazaview, prior to the holidays. The Dollar remained in its narrow range of a sideways direction. The Dollar closed a little lower in this movement, at 116.33. As described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a top forming pattern since early October of 2000. This week, the Dollar remains temporarily in a sideways movement but well primed to fall into a downward correction trend. While the upper resistance target has been reached at 118, the market may attempt to advance again, to the first point of resistance, around 118. The nearest lower target is 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index rose, as forecast in Plazaview. The CRB finished higher by the end of last week, to close at 193.82. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago and as forecast in Plazaview, it is now in a temporary rebound. The index has tested the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually retest the recent lows but for now, a temporary rise is likely to continue.

Crude oil (NY-March) ranged higher last week, hitting the Plazaview forecast target of $21.97. The (March) CO closed up last week, at $21.91. This week, CO is in a rebound, from being sharply oversold as forecast in Plazaview. CO has not found a new upward trend but the rebound may now carry it higher before an eventual return to the recent lows. The (March) CO has higher targets waiting at $22.48 and $25.79. As the current rally is on a rebound, an exhaustion of the movement will eventually take CO to a lower target waiting at $18.77.

The NY (March) gasoline market traded higher last week, hitting targets of $.6088 and $.6386, as forecast in Plazaview. In a rebounding trend, HU (March) closed up last week, at $.6367. This week, HU remains in its rebound, with potential to continue higher. Another rally will be reaching for a distant target at $.7221. Since the current rally is only a rebound, a failure to follow-through will cause sideways or lower movement, down to a target waiting at $.5265.

The NY (March) heating oil market was moved higher last week and while it was clearly favored over NG, it was more contained than CO and HU. The (March) HO market closed up, at $.589. This week, HO remains only in a rebounding trend as was forecast in Plazaview. Previously, the HO market price had been depressed by supply and unusually warm weather. Price has now moved higher with the late arriving cold winter weather and increased usage. Higher targets remain at $.6035, $.6113, $.6255 and $.7124. A possibly resumed mild weather pattern may abruptly take the price lower, to targets waiting at $.5614, $.5518, and $.5265.

The NY (March) natural gas market moved in an opposite direction, compared with the other energy markets. The other energy market rallies are embryonic trend developments and NG was already more developed, resulting in an alternate fuel switch last week. NG (March) moved clearly down, last week, moving below the target of $2.693, as forecast previously in Plazaview and it settled at $2.265. As forecast in Plazaview, the other energy markets had been poised for a rebound. The fundamental impact of cold winter weather had been delayed but it has now arrived and buyers are taking greater interest. While NG and HO will compete in the current market, NG is nearly oversold and a rebound approaching, possibly this week, with (March) targets waiting at $2.56 and $3.323.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 1-14-2002 (S&P starts at 1145.60)

Last week the U.S. stock markets moved inside the prior week's range and finished lower. By the end of the week, the market was unable to advance beyond the resistance and potential support, previously described in Plazaview. Last week and five weeks ago, the market had reached this same (S&P 500: 1170) resistance area but receded as forecast. Last week, the S&P 500 traded between 1177 and 1145; it closed down, at 1145.60. The Dow Ind. 30 closed lower for the week, at 9987.53. Since 1999's year end high, the S&P 500 was down by -22.03%.

The U.S.A.'s stock market indices have rebounded from the September low point of a correction phase, which began in March of 2000. The September of 2001 low is the current bottom but it is not yet conclusive. While the long term trend remains upward, the immediate trend is a rebound from a formerly oversold condition and it is not a sustainable trend. This week, the stock market is confronted by twice tested resistance in the (S&P 500) area of 1170. Until the market can rise through a band of resistance at 1170 through 1265, there will be sideways and downward movement. With time, the current trend is likely to be followed by a test of the September low.

Last week the (March) T-bond rallied from 100.11 to 103.27 and closed higher, at 103.15. This week begins with the Bond still in an incomplete and downward trend. Uncertain stock market investors continue to alternate trading between these two market areas, in search of market direction and relative safety. The T-Bond has not yet found a bottom and after the current rally falters, it will move back down to (March) targets at 100.7/32 and 99.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond was moved down last week. The yield rate ended at 5.36% last week. This week, while the rate has been recently elevated, it is not in a new uptrend. It may probe up and down as the Bond seeks to find its bottom at nearby and lower levels but a return to the September low is an eventuality.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index remained in its narrow range of a sideways direction and a likely top. The Dollar closed only little higher, at 116.33. As described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a top forming pattern since early October of 2000. This week, the Dollar remains temporarily in a sideways movement but well primed to fall into a downward correction trend. While the Dollar's long term trend is rising, it has formed a potential top and it is ready to move lower. The nearest lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index continued to rise last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The CRB finished higher by the end of last week, to close at 194.39. The CRB had been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago and as forecast in Plazaview, it is now in a temporary rebound. The index has tested the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually retest the recent lows but for now, it is in a temporary rise which is soon coming to a conclusion. A further rise has some but limited potential as it will be met by nearby resistance.

Crude oil (NY-March) flowed lower last week, trading from $20.90 to $20.2. The (March) CO closed down last week, at $20.32. This week, CO is in a range between (March) targets of $21.57 and $18.77. The (March) CO has higher targets waiting at $22.48 and $25.79 but the market needs to find a base of price support . As the recent price increase is only a rebound, exhaustion of the movement will eventually take CO to that lower target, waiting at $18.77.

The NY (March) gasoline market surged downward last week, trading from $.6025 to $.5850. In a failure to continue a rebounding trend, HU (March) closed down last week, at $.5876. This week, HU remains in its rebound, with potential to continue higher but a base of price support does not exist. Since the recent advance is only a rebound, another failure to follow-through will cause sideways or lower movement. This week, HU (March) is trading between targets of $.6324, $.6201 and $.5700, $.5440, $.5365 and down to $.5265.

The NY (March) heating oil market was in a more contained movement last week, for the second week, as compared with CO and HU. HO - March moved in a range from $.592 to $.545. As forecast in Plazaview, lower targets of $.5614 and $.5518 were hit last week. The (March) HO market closed down, at $.5472. This week, HO is in a faltering rebound as was forecast in Plazaview. While higher targets remain at $.5726, $.6035, $.6113, $.6255 and $.7124. A possibly resumed mild weather pattern and the need for a base of price support can abruptly take the price lower, to a (March HO) target of at least $.5265.

The NY (March) natural gas market held its ground against the falling prices of the other energy markets. The March - NG traded in a narrow range of $2.26 to $2.19. NG (March) closed down (-$.062) last week, at $2.203. This week, the fundamental impact of changing winter weather and competition from HO puts conflicting pressure on the price of NG. Technically, NG is now set to rally in a rebound action, although a price base is not well established. A rebound, possibly this week, has (March) targets waiting at $2.56, $2.869, $2.917 and $3.323.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 1-21-2002 (S&P starts at 1127.58)

Last week the U.S. stock markets moved in a narrow range but finished lower. As forecast in Plazaview, the market's inability to advance above the (S&P 500's 1170) key resistance level led to more downward movement in the past, nine weeks of a sideways pattern. The S&P 500 traded between 1148.81 and 1124.45; it closed down, at 1127.58. The Dow Ind. 30 closed lower for the week, at 9771.85. Since the 1999 year end high, the S&P 500 was down by -23.25%. The U.S.A.'s stock market indices have moved sideways for the past nine weeks. The market finished last week at the current top of a rebound from the September low point of a correction phase, which began in March of 2000.

This week, the September of 2001 low is the current bottom but it is not yet conclusive. While the long term trend remains upward, the immediate trend is a faltering rebound from a formerly oversold condition and that is not a sustainable trend. This week, the stock market begins trading below twice tested resistance in the (S&P 500) area of 1170. Until the market can rise through a band of resistance at 1170 through 1265, there will be sideways and downward movement. With time, the current trend is likely to finish lower and test the September low.

Last week the (March) T-bond ranged from 102.17 to 104.11 and closed slightly higher, at 103.20/32. This week the Bond is still in an incomplete and downward trend. Uncertain stock market investors continue to alternate trading between these two market areas, in search of market direction and relative safety. The T-Bond has not yet found a bottom and after the current rally falters, it will move back down to (March) targets at 100.7/32 and 99.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond was moved slightly higher by the end of last week. The yield rate ended at 5.366% last week. This week, while the rate has been recently elevated, it is not a new uptrend. It may probe up and down as the Bond seeks to find its bottom at nearby and lower levels but a return to the September low is an eventuality.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index remained in its narrow range of a sideways direction and a likely top but the Dollar closed a little higher, at 117.64. The Dollar has performed a top forming pattern since early October of 2000 but last week's slight rise may have bought a future advance. This week, the Dollar is at a critical turning point. If it falls by the end of the week, there will be a minimum return to the recent sideways movement. It has been well primed to fall into a downward correction trend. The Dollar's long term trend is rising, it has formed a potential top and it is ready to move lower. But, last week's slight rise opens the door to new potential for a rally. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved back down last week. The CRB finished lower by the end of last week, to close at 190.07. The CRB had been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago and as forecast in Plazaview, it is now in a temporary rebound. The index has tested the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually retest the recent lows but for now, it is in a temporary rise which is soon coming to a conclusion. A further rise has some but limited potential as it will be met by nearby resistance.

Crude oil (NY-March) continued in a second week drop, lower, last week, trading from $20.05 to $18.52. The (March) CO closed down last week, at $18.66, hitting the Plazaview forecast target at 18.77. This week, CO is not finished moving lower but volatility has potential and higher (March) targets are $21.57 and $20.32. The market needs to find a lower base of price support before a sustainable rise is possible. As the prior weeks' price advance was only a temporary rebound and it is now failed, the market will eventually take CO to lower levels.

The NY (March) gasoline market continued in a second week surge, downward last week, trading from $.5840 to $.5490. The (March) HU closed down last week, at $.5502. This week, HU remains in the range of the recent rebound but a base of price support does not exist. Since the recent advance is only a rebound, continued retracement is likely with sideways or lower movement. This week, HU (March) is trading between upper targets of $.6324, $.6201 and lower targets of $.5657, $.5700, $.5440, $.5365, down to $.5265.

The NY (March) heating oil market moved down for a second week and remained in a relatively contained range last week, as compared with CO and HU. HO - March moved in a range from $.542 to $.515. As forecast in Plazaview, the lower target of $.5265 was hit last week. The (March) HO market closed down, at $.5166. This week, although HO has given back all the prior rebound as forecast in Plazaview, it has some additional capacity to move lower. Cold weather may bring another rally but that will be unsustainable. Higher targets are at (March) $.5472, $.5726, $.6035, $.6113, $.6255 and $.7124.

The NY (March) natural gas market rallied briefly and then partially retreated last week. For a second week, NG held its ground last week, compared with the steeply falling prices of the other energy markets. The March - NG traded in a narrow range of $2.19 to $2.375. NG (March) closed up last week, at $2.236. This week, the fundamental impact of a changing winter weather and competition from depressed HO puts conflicting pressure on the price of NG. Technically, NG is ready to rally. The price base is not well established and this rally will fail at higher levels. Another rebound, possibly this week, has (March) upper targets waiting at $2.306, $2.375, $2.56, $2.746, $2.869, $2.917 and $3.323.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 1-28-2002 (S&P starts at 1133.28)

Last week the U.S. stock markets moved lower but recovered and finished with a small advance by the end of the week. Trading remained in a narrow range. As forecast in Plazaview, the market's inability to advance above the (S&P 500's 1170) key resistance level continues to result in downward and sideways patterns. The S&P 500 traded between 1139.5 and 1117.43; it closed down, at 1133.28. The Dow Ind. 30 closed higher for he week, at 9840.08. Since the 1999 year end high, the S&P 500 was down by -22.87%. The U.S.A.'s stock market indices have moved sideways for the past ten weeks.

This week, the September of 2001 low is the current bottom but it is not yet final. While the long term trend remains upward, the immediate trend is in a faltering rebound from the September of 2001 low point. The stock market begins trading, this week, still below the twice tested resistance in the (S&P 500) area of 1170. Unless the market can rise through a band of resistance at 1170 and through1265, there will be sideways and downward movement. With time, the current trend is likely to finish lower and test the September low.

Last week the (March) T-bond ranged from 103.21 to 101.13 and closed down, at 102.4/32. This week the Bond is still in an incomplete and downward trend but attempting to rise from a faulty base. Uncertain stock market investors are alternating between these two market areas, in search of stock market direction and relative safety. The T-Bond has not yet found a bottom although it appears to be in a rally mode. After the current rally falters, it will move back down to (March) targets at 100.7/32 and 99.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond was moved higher by the end of last week. As the Bond rose, the yield rate ended higher, at 5.476% last week. This week, while the rate has been recently elevated, it is an initial move and not a new uptrend. The rate may probe up and down as the Bond seeks to find its bottom at nearby and lower levels. Eventually a return to the September low is likely.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index filled its potential to move higher as forecast in Plazaview. The Dollar index closed higher, at 119.79. The Dollar has been in a top forming pattern since early October of 2000 but last week's advance added a potentially new dimension for an advance. This week, the Dollar is still at a critical level. While it has shown some ability to move higher, this appears to be unsustainable. The likely result may be sideways movement or a failed rally and a pull back. The Dollar has been well primed to fall into a downward correction trend but this may be delayed. The long term trend is rising but it is due for a short term reversal. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index closed slightly lower by the end of last week. The CRB finished last week by closing at 189.85. The CRB had been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago. The index has tested the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually retest the recent lows but for now, it is attempting a rise. A further rise has limited potential as it will be met by nearby resistance. This indicator market is seeking a base and holding in a range of 181.83 to 195.97.

Crude oil (NY-March) recovered last week from most of the prior week's decline. Last week's trading ranged from $18.52 to $20.17 and the (March) CO closed up last week, at $19.99, nearly hitting the Plazaview forecast target at $20.32. This week, CO has not completed a base price formation. Volatility has potential and higher (March) targets are $20.32 and $21.57. The market needs to find a lower base of price support before a sustainable rise is possible. A lower price target is at $19.07. As the prior weeks' price advance was only a temporary rebound volatility remains with no clear price base.

The NY (March) gasoline market rallied last week, trading from $.5490 to $5930, hitting Plazaview forecast targets along the way. The (March) HU closed up last week, at $.5912. This week, HU begins in the mid-range of a recent advance but this is only an initial rise. Failure of the current rally will be followed by retracement, lower. HU (March) is trading between upper targets of $.6201 and $.6324, with lower targets at $.5700, $.5657, $.5615, $.5440, $.5365, down to $.5265.

The NY (March) heating oil market recovered last week from most of the prior week's decline. It was again in a relatively contained range last week, as compared with CO and HU. HO - March moved in a range from $.515 to $.543 and closed higher, at $.5376. This week, although HO is in the middle of highest demand season, a price base is not well defined and it has some additional capacity to move lower. Cold weather may bring another rally but that will be unsustainable. Higher targets are at (March) $.5472, $.5726, $.6035, $.6113, $.6255 and $.7124.

The NY (March) natural gas market remained in a narrow range last week, taking the opposite direction from the other energy markets. The March - NG traded in a range of $2.05 to $2.27, closing down last week, at $2.104. Again, this week, the fundamental impact of a changing winter weather and competition from depressed HO puts conflicting pressure on the price of NG. Technically, NG is ready to rally. But, the price base is not well established and this rally will fail at higher levels. A potential rally, possibly this week, has (March) upper targets waiting at $2.135, $2.236, $2.306, $2.375, $2.56, $2.746, $2.869, $2.917 and $3.323.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 2-4-2002 (S&P starts at 1122.20)

Last week the U.S. stock markets moved lower and recovered only partially. The S&P 500 closed down, at 1122.20. The Dow Ind. 30 closed the week at 9907.26. As forecast in Plazaview, the market has been unable to advance above the (S&P 500's 1170) key resistance level, resulting in downward and sideways patterns. Since 1999's year end high, the S&P 500 finished down by -23.62% last week. The U.S.A.'s stock market indices have moved sideways and downward for the past eleven weeks.

This week, the long term trend remains upward and the immediate trend is in a faltering rebound from the September of 2001 low point. The stock market begins trading, this week, still below the twice tested resistance in the (S&P 500) area of 1170. Unless the market can rise through a band of resistance at 1170 and through1265, there will be continued sideways and downward movement. With time, the current trend is likely to move lower and test the September low.

Note: This week, we turn our futures attention from March, to the June expiring contracts.

Last week the (June) T-bond closed up, at 102.6/32. This week the Bond is still attempting to rise from a faulty base. It is below the mid-point of recovery from a sharp decline of several weeks ago. Uncertain stock market investors are alternating between these two market areas, in search of stock market direction and relative safety. The T-Bond has not yet found a bottom although it is in a buyer's trend which will continue as the stock market recoils.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond ranged narrowly last week. By the end of the week, the yield rate ended lower, at 5.398% last week. This week, while the rate has been recently elevated, it is an initial move and not a new uptrend. The rate will probe up and down as the Bond seeks to find its direction. In time, a return to area of the September low is very likely.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index closed slightly lower, at 119.7. The Dollar has been in a top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been retesting the top of its range. This week, the Dollar begins at a critical top level. While it has shown some ability to move higher, this appears to be unsustainable, resulting in sideways movement or a failed rally and a pull back. The Dollar has been well primed to fall into a downward correction trend. The long term trend is rising but a short term reversal is due. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index closed slightly lower by the end of last week. The CRB finished last week at 189.51. The CRB had been trending lower since it peaked in October of one year ago. The index recently tested the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually retest the recent lows but for now, it is building an initial base and attempting to rise. A further rise has limited potential as it will be met by nearby resistance. This indicator market is seeking a base and holding in a range from 181.83 to 195.97.

Crude oil (NY-June) rallied last week. Last week's trading ranged from $21.00 to $19.95 and the (June) CO closed higher last week, at $20.96. This week, CO begins on the tail of last week's rally and there is potential for higher levels but that is unsustainable. More volatility is likely and higher (June) targets are at $22.29 and $25.03. The market will eventually find a lower base of price support before a sustainable rise is possible.

The NY (June) gasoline market rallied last week, trading from $.6435 to $.6725. The (June) HU closed up last week, at $.6712. This week, HU begins in the wake of the prior week's rally and a further advance is possible but this is only an initial rise. HU (June) has upper targets of $.7036 and $.7781. Eventual failure of the current rally will result in a retracement to the $.60 area.

The NY (June) heating oil market rallied last week. HO (June) moved in a range from $.53 to $.5582 and closed higher, at $.5582. This week, cold weather may bring another rally but that will be unsustainable. Higher targets are at $.6005 and $.6644. Eventually, this weather induced rally will fail and HO (June) will move down to test a base of price support in the area of $.52.

The NY (June) natural gas market moved slightly lower in a narrow range, from $2.35 to $2.265. Again, NG took the opposite direction from the other energy markets. The June - NG closed slightly down last week, at $2.331. This week, the fundamental impact of relatively mild winter weather and competition from HO puts downward pressure on the price of NG. Technically, NG is overdue for a rally to at least $2.50 (June). Although, the price base is not well established and this rally will eventually fail, it will go to higher levels. The potential rally, possibly this week, has (June) upper targets waiting at $3.287 and $3.656.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 2-11-2002 (S&P starts at 1096.22)

Last week the U.S. stock markets continued to move lower. The S&P 500 closed down, at 1096.22. The Dow Ind. 30 closed lower for the week at 9744.24. As forecast in Plazaview, the market has been unable to advance above the (S&P 500's 1170) key resistance level, resulting in downward and sideways patterns. Since 1999's year-end high, the S&P 500 finished down by -25.39% last week. After a rally from the late September lows ended, the U.S.A.'s stock market indices had moved sideways and mostly downward for the past twelve weeks.

This week, the long term trend remains upward but the immediate trend is in a failing rebound from the September of 2001 low point. The stock market begins this week's trading in a still corrective mode, below midrange of the September low to the December / January top of the rally. There will be continued sideways and downward movement as the major correction, which began in March of 2000, is not yet complete. With more time, the current trend is likely to continue moving lower and test the September low.

Last week, as forecast in Plazaview, the (June) T-bond moved higher, to close at 102.22/32. This week the Bond is still attempting to rise from a faulty base. It is advancing from a sharp decline of several weeks ago. Uncertain stock market investors are alternating between these two market areas, in search of stock market direction and relative safety. The T-Bond is in a temporarily rising trend, which will continue as the stock market recoils, lower.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond ranged narrowly last week. By the end of the week, the yield rate ended lower, at 5.379% last week. This week, while the rate has been recently elevated, that is an initial move but not the beginning of a new uptrend. The rate will probe up and down as the Bond seeks to find its direction. A lower rate, in the area of September's lower range, is very likely.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index closed slightly lower, at 119.10. The Dollar has been in a top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been retesting the top of its range. This week, the Dollar begins still floating near the top level. While it has shown some ability to move higher, this appears to be unsustainable, resulting in minimal and sideways movement. The Dollar has been well primed to fall into a downward correction trend. The long term trend is rising but a short term reversal is due. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved slightly higher by the end of last week. The CRB finished last week at 191.76. The CRB had trended lower since it peaked in October of one year ago. The index recently tested the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually retest the recent lows but for now, it is building an initial base and attempting to rise. This week is potentially critical as the advance begun in December is about to break out and above or remain in its range. This indicator market is seeking a base and holding in a range from 181.83 to 195.97.

Crude oil (NY-June) moved up and down, in a narrow range last week. Last week's trading ranged between $20.80 and $20.28 and the (June) CO closed lower, at $20.85. As forecast in the prior week's Plazaview, there was potential for higher levels but that was unsustainable. This week, CO begins in a similar condition. More attempts to rally and volatility is likely. Higher (June) targets are at $22.29 and $25.03 but a lower target is at $20.96. The market will eventually find a lower base of price support before a sustainable rise is possible.

The NY (June) gasoline market rallied narrowly last week, trading between $.6675 and $.6560. The (June) HU closed lower, at $.6671. This week, HU begins with a potential to advance further but this is only part of a temporary rise. HU (June) has upper targets of $.7036 and $.7781. Eventual failure of the current rally will result in a retracement to the $.60 area.

The NY (June) heating oil market rallied narrowly last week. The (June) HO closed lower, at $.5446. This week, cold weather may induce some pressure for higher prices but that will be unsustainable. Immediate, higher targets are at $.6005, $.6312, and $.6644. A weather-induced rally will fail and HO (June) will eventually move back down to test in the area of $.52.

The NY (June) natural gas market moved slightly lower, ranging narrowly between $2.410 and $2.285. The June - NG closed higher, last week, at $2.403. This week, the fundamental impact of relatively mild winter weather and competition from HO keeps downward pressure on the price of NG. However, NG is overdue to rally, at least up to $2.50 (June). Although, a price base is not well established and this rally will eventually fail, it will go to higher levels. Persistent sellers may bring the price back down to a target of $2.308. But, the potential to rally, possibly this week, has (June NG) upper targets waiting at $2.412, $2.506, $3.287 and $3.656.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 2-18-2002 (S&P starts at 1104.18)

Last week the U.S. stock markets moved up and down in a narrow range. The S&P 500 closed up (+7.96 points) at 1104.18. The Dow Ind. 30 performed comparatively twice as well, it closed up (+158.80) for the week at 9903.04. As forecast in Plazaview, the market has been unable to advance above the resistance level, resulting in downward and sideways patterns. Last week's action was a minor advance within the context of a still falling market. Since 1999's year-end high, the S&P 500 finished down by -24.85% last week. After a rally from the late September lows ended in November / December, the U.S.A.'s stock market indices have trended sideways and mostly downward for the past thirteen weeks.

This week, the long term trend remains upward but the immediate advance is a failing rebound from the September of 2001 low point. The stock market begins this week's trading in a still corrective mode. There will be continued sideways and downward movement as the major correction, which began in March of 2000, is not yet complete. With more time, the current trend is likely to continue and eventually test the September low.

Last week, the (June) T-bond ranged between (103.8/32 and 100.28/32) and as forecast in Plazaview, closed higher, at 103.10/32. The Bond is rising in a broad, sideways range and begins this week in the lower end of its mid-range. This advance is a temporary rebound from a sharp decline of several weeks ago. Uncertain investors are alternating between stock market sectors and the Bond market areas, in search of stock market direction and paralleling safety. The T-Bond is in a temporarily rising trend, which will continue as the stock market recoils, lower.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond moved lower last week. By the end of the week, the yield rate closed down, at 5.366% last week. This week, the rate will continue to probe up and down as the Bond seeks to find its direction. A lower rate, in the area of September's lower range, is the eventual target.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index closed lower, at 118.55. The Dollar has been in a top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been retesting the top of its range. This week, the Dollar begins still floating near the top level. It has shown some ability to move higher, and it may rally to 120.22. This action would usually be unsustainable, now resulting in minimal upward and mostly sideways movement. The Dollar has been well primed to fall into a downward correction trend but fundamental weaknesses in alternative currencies keeps the Dollar aloft. The long term trend is rising but a short term reversal is overdue. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved only slightly and lower by the end of last week. The CRB finished last week at 191.58. The CRB peaked in October of one year ago and then trended lower. The index recently tested down to the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually retest the recent lows but for now, it is building an initial base and attempting to rise against nearby resistance. This week is potentially critical as the advance begun in December is about to break out and above or remain in its range. This indicator market is seeking a base and holding in a range from 181.83 to 195.97.

Crude oil (NY-June) moved up last week. Last week's trading ranged between $21.01 and $21.95, the (June) CO closed higher, at $20.85. As forecast in the prior week's Plazaview, there was volatility and higher levels attained. This week, CO begins in a similar condition. More attempts to rally and volatility is likely. The higher (June) targets are at $22.29 and $25.03. The market will eventually find the current advance to be unsustainable and seek a lower base of price support. Lower (June) targets are at $20.96 and $20.85.

The NY (June) gasoline market rallied along with CO last week. The (June) HU closed higher, at $.6888. This week, HU begins with a potential to advance further but this is only a temporary rise. HU (June) has upper targets of $.7036 and $.7781. Eventual failure of the current rally will result in a retracement to the $.60 area.

The NY (June) heating oil market rallied last week. The (June) HO closed up, at $.566. This week, cold weather may induce some pressure for higher prices but that will be unsustainable. Immediate, higher targets are at $.6005, $.6312, and $.6644. A weather-induced rally will fail and HO (June) will eventually move back down to test in the area of $.52.

The NY (June) natural gas market ranged between $2.375 and $2.50, hitting the Plazaview forecast targets of $2.412 and $2.50. The June - NG closed higher by only (+)$.011 last week, at $2.414. This week, the fundamental impact of relatively mild winter weather, low energy products demand and competition with HO has downward pressure on the price of NG. However, NG is overdue to rally and it has reinstated an initial price base. Although, the price base is not well established and this rally will eventually fall back, NG will go to higher levels. Persistent sellers may take the price back down to a target of $2.308 but the greater potential to rally has (June NG) upper targets waiting at $2.506, $3.287 and $3.656.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 2-25-2002 (S&P starts at 1089.84)

Last week the U.S. stock markets moved up and down in an attempt to rally. The S&P 500 traded between 1117.09 and 1074.36 but closed lower (-14.34 points) at 1089.84. The Dow Ind. 30 performed better, it closed up (+65.11) for the week at 9968.15. As forecast in Plazaview, the U.S. stock market has been unable to advance above the resistance level, resulting in continued downward and sideways patterns. Since 1999's year-end high, the S&P 500 finished down by (-)25.82% last week. After a rally from the late September lows, ended in November / December, the U.S.A.'s stock market indices have trended sideways and mostly downward for the past fourteen weeks.

This week, the long term trend remains upward and the market has now regressed for seven weeks. It is down from a fading rebound, begun at the September of 2001 low point. The stock market begins this week's trading still in a corrective mode. There will be continued sideways and downward movement as the major correction, which began in March of 2000, is not yet complete. With more time, the current trend is likely to continue this pattern and eventually test the September low.

Last week, the (June) T-bond ranged higher, between (103.30/32 and 102.10/32). As forecast in Plazaview, the Bond closed higher, at 103.16/32. The Bond is rising in a broad, sideways range and begins this week below and near its mid-range. This current (eight week) advance is a temporary rebound from a sharp decline of several weeks ago. Uncertain investors are cautious, alternating between stock market sectors such as the Dow 30 and the Bond market areas, in search of stock market direction and paralleling safety. The T-Bond is in a temporarily rising trend, which will continue as the stock market recoils, lower.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond moved lower last week. By the end of the week, the yield rate closed down, at 5.341% last week. This week, the rate will continue to probe up and down as the Bond seeks to find its direction. As forecast in Plazaview, a lower rate, in the area of September's lower range, is the eventual target.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index closed slightly lower, at 118.46. The Dollar has been in a top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been retesting the top of its range. This week, the Dollar begins still floating near the top level. It has some ability to move higher, and it may rally to 120.22. This action would usually be unsustainable but instead, there is now minimal upward, mostly sideways movement. The Dollar has been well primed to fall into a downward correction trend but fundamental weakness in alternative currencies holds the Dollar aloft. The long term trend is rising but a short term reversal is overdue. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved only slightly higher (+ .13) by the end of last week. The CRB finished last week at 191.71. The CRB peaked in October of one year ago and then it trended lower. The index recently tested down to the lows of two years ago (1999) and it can be expected to eventually retest the recent lows but for now, it is building an initial base and attempting to rise against nearby resistance. This week is potentially critical as the advance begun in December is close to breaking out and above or it will linger in its current range. This indicator market is seeking a base and holding in a range from 181.83 to 195.97.

Crude oil (NY-June) moved up and down last week. Last week's trading ranged between $21.95 and $20.70, hitting the Plazaview forecast targets ($20.96 and $20.85). The (June) CO closed higher, at $21.26. As forecast in the prior week's Plazaview, there was volatility and higher levels attained. This week, CO begins in a similar condition. More attempts to rally and volatility is likely but the advance is unstable and it is destined to fail. The higher (June) targets are at $21.80, $22.29 and $25.03. The market will eventually find the current advance to be unsustainable and move lower, testing the base for price support.

The NY (June) gasoline market price moved between $.687 and $.656 last week, inside the prior week's range. The (June) HU closed lower, at $.669. This week, HU begins with a potential to advance further but this is vulnerable. Sellers could push down this now vulnerable market. HU (June) has upper targets of $.6888, $.7036 and $.7781. Eventual failure of the current rally will result in a retracement to $.6501 and into the $.60 area.

The NY (June) heating oil market moved down last week, in a range of $.564 and $.5505. The (June) HO closed lower, at $.5533. This week, winter's cold weather may induce some pressure for higher prices but that will be unsustainable. Immediate, higher targets are at $.6005, $.6312, and $.6644. A weather-induced rally will fail and HO (June) will eventually move back down to test in the area of $.52.

The NY (June) natural gas market ranged higher, between $2.375 and $2.61, hitting the Plazaview forecast target of $2.506. The June - NG closed higher by (+)$.187 last week, at $2.601. This week, the fundamental impact of unusually mild winter weather, overall reduced energy products demand and competition with HO places downward pressure on the price of NG. However, NG has been overdue to rally and while last week's action may bring some follow-through, this is not a sustainable trend. This rally will fall back before NG can sustain higher levels. Sellers could take the price back down to a target of $2.308 but there is future potential to rally (June NG) up to targets of $3.287 and $3.656. This week's conditions are likely to produce erratic movement in NG, sellers will have an advantage in a rising price.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-4-2002 (S&P starts at 1131.78)

Last week the U.S. stock markets advanced as the week progressed, above the range of the prior three weeks. The S&P closed higher (+41.94 points) at 1131.78. The Dow Ind. 30 performed well, it closed up (+400.71 points) for the week at 10368.86. As forecast in Plazaview, the U.S. stock market has been trading below resistance levels, resulting in a downward and sideways pattern. Last week's advance may be viewed in the context of this pattern as overhead resistance and a downward trend is still in place. Compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was improved last week but it finished down by (-)22.97%. After a rally from the late September lows, ended in November / December, the U.S.A.'s stock market indices have trended sideways and mostly downward for the past fifteen weeks.

This week the long term trend is up. The intermediate term trend is down. The stock market begins this week's trading with the potential to follow through with a rally. The market's potential to continue higher is at a critical juncture this week. A sustained advance by the end of this week, of at least (S&P 500) +15 points, will break through initial resistance. If the market can accomplish this by the end of this week there is greater potential for higher levels. Otherwise, the market will return to continued sideways and downward movement as the major correction, which began in March of 2000, is not yet complete. Aside from the potential for further advancement this week, with time, the major correction trend is likely to eventually test the September low.

Last week, the (June) T-bond moved lower in response to the rising stock market. The Bond closed down, at 101.26/32. The Bond has been rising in a broad, sideways range but it begins this week with the potential to break down. The current (nine weeks) of an advancing trend has been a temporary rebound from the sharp decline of last October and November. Uncertain investors have been cautious, alternating between stock market sectors and the Bond market areas, in search of stock market direction and paralleling safety. The T-Bond's temporarily rising trend will be in jeopardy, this week, unless the stock market retreats, lower.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond moved up last week. By the end of the week, the yield rate closed higher, at 5.498% last week. This week, the rate will rise again if the stock market breaks through upward resistance as noted above. Otherwise, it will resume probing up and down as the Bond seeks its direction in response to the stock market.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index closed slightly higher, at 119.41. The Dollar has been in a top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been retesting the top of its range. This week, the Dollar begins still floating near the top level. It has some ability to move higher, and it may rally to 120.22. This prolonged action would usually be unsustainable but there is now minimal upward, mostly sideways movement. The Dollar has been well primed to fall into a downward correction trend but fundamental weakness in alternative currencies holds the Dollar aloft. The long term trend is rising but a short term reversal is overdue. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved higher (+3 .34) by the end of last week. The CRB finished last week at 195.05. The CRB peaked in October of one year ago and then it trended lower. The index recently tested down to the lows of two years ago (1999). It had been building an initial base and attempting to rise against nearby resistance. Last week's advance is significant and potentially, will lead to higher levels. This week may see a follow-through but it is tenuous and an initial advance. This indicator market is breaking out of a fourteen-month-old down trend but it may now require more base building before sustaining an advance. It begins this week near the top of the current range: 181.83 to 195.97.

Crude oil (NY-June) moved up last week. Last week's trading hit the Plazaview forecast targets ($21.80 and $22.29). The (June) CO closed higher, at $22.71. As also forecast in the prior week's Plazaview, there was volatility and higher levels attained. This week, CO begins in a similar condition. More attempts to rally and volatility is likely but the advance is unstable and it is destined to fail. The higher (June) target is at $25.03. The market will eventually find the current advance to be unsustainable and move lower, testing the base for price support.

The NY (June) gasoline market price moved up last week but just short of the forecast targets. Last week's trading hit the Plazaview forecast targets ($.6888 and $.7036). The (June) HU closed higher, at $.7126. This week, HU begins with a potential to advance further but this is vulnerable. Sellers could quickly push down this rising market. HU (June) has another upper target at $.7781. Eventual failure of the current rally will result in a retracement to $.6501 and potentially, into the $.60 area.

The NY (June) heating oil market moved up last week but just short of the first target. The (June) HO closed higher, at $.591. This week, the higher targets are nearby, at $.6005, $.6312, and $.6644. A weather-induced rally will ultimately fail and HO (June) will eventually move back down to test in the area of $.52.

The NY (June) natural gas market was erratic last week and sellers had the advantage as forecast in Plazaview. The June - NG closed lower, last week, at $2.479. This week, the fundamental impact of unusually mild winter weather, an overall reduced energy products demand and competition with HO places downward pressure on the price of NG. NG has been overdue to rally but last week's action indicates that this market needs to retest its recent lows before commencing a sustainable upward trend. Sellers could take the price back down to a target of $2.308. After that, the future potential is to rally (June NG) up to targets of $3.287 and $3.656.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-11-2002 (S&P starts at 1164.31)

Last week the U.S. stock markets were moved higher and above a critical point of resistance as described in the prior week's Plazaview. The S&P closed (+32.53 points) higher at 1164.31. The Dow Ind. 30 performed well, it closed up (+203. points) for the week at 103572.4. Last week's advance had many signs of short position covering. The S&P 500 was improved last week but compared with 1999's year-end, it finished still down by (-)20.75%. After a rally from the late September lows, ended in November / December, the U.S.A.'s stock market indices have trended sideways and mostly downward for fourteen weeks, upward for the past two weeks.

This week the long term trend is up and the intermediate term trend is changed to neutral. The stock market begins this week's trading with the potential to follow through with a third week's rally. While there is potential for higher levels, ultimately, the current advance is unsustainable and the market will back down to retrace the recent gains. The nearest lower target area is (S & P 500) 1089.84 and this will be revisited at some point; 965.8 is a deeper potential risk to the current advance. Most likely action for this week is up and down, sideways direction.

Last week, the (June) T-bond was in jeopardy as forecast in the prior week's Plazaview and it moved lower in response to the rising stock market. The Bond moved in a range from 102.1/32 to 98.23/32 and closed down, at 98.29/32. This week, the Bond will be less vulnerable to selling but not impervious, an up and down week is likely with a certain risk of lower prices. The Bond now needs to find a bottom price and this will occur over the next few weeks. Uncertain investors have been cautious, alternating between stock market sectors and the Bond market areas, in search of stock market direction with paralleling safety. This situation remains unchanged.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond moved up last week. By the end of the week, as forecast in Plazaview, the yield rate closed higher, at 5.721% last week. This week, the rate is more likely to be limited in range. The current rise is only an initial advance and the rate will sink back down again when the stock market retraces is recent gains.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index was moved lower, to close down at 117.88. The Dollar has been in a top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been retesting the top of its range. Last week's action resulted from improved economic hopes for countries with competing currencies. This week, the Dollar begins still near its recent top level. It has some potential to move higher and it could rally to 120.22 when the current stock market advance is concluded. The Dollar has been well primed to fall into a downward correction trend but fundamental weakness in alternative currencies holds the Dollar aloft. The long term trend is rising but a short term reversal is overdue. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved higher by the end of last week. The CRB finished last week at 200.87, largely due to energy price increases. The CRB peaked in October of one year ago and then it trended lower. The index recently tested down to the lows of two years ago (1999). This indicator market is now making an initial break out of a fourteen-month-old down trend but it may soon require a return to lower levels (192) before sustaining the advance.

Crude oil (NY-June) market price moved up last week as forecast in Plazaview. Last week's trading ranged from $22.81 to $24.25. The (June) CO closed higher, at $24.22. This week, CO is more vulnerable to selling as attempts to rally will be met with increasing resistance. The higher (June) target is nearby, at $25.03. A lower target waits at $22.71.

The NY (June) gasoline market price moved up last week as forecast in Plazaview. Last week's trading ranged from $.692 to $.777. The (June) HU closed higher, at $.7722. This week, HU begins with a potential to advance further but this is vulnerable and sellers could quickly push down this rising market. HU (June) has a nearby, upper target at $.7781. Eventual failure of the current rally will result in a retracement to $.6501, $.6312 and potentially, into the $.60 area.

The NY (June) heating oil market price moved up last week. Last week's trading ranged from $.584 to $.627, hitting the first Plazaview forecast target at $.6005. The (June) HO closed higher, at $.6246. This week, a higher target is nearby, at $.6312 and further is $.6644. The current advance is at a point of resistance this week and HO (June) will eventually move back down to test in the area of $.62, possibly $.52 with time.

The NY (June) natural gas market was overdue to rally and the price moved higher last week. The week's trading ranged from $2.569 to $2.91. The June - NG closed up last week, at $2.908. This week, NG has had a good move up but it begins the week at a point of resistance. This market will be susceptible to testing the recent lower levels. This week, if the rally fails to attract additional buyers, sellers could take the price back down to a target of $2.479 and $2.308. After that, the potential is to rally (June NG) up to higher targets of $3.287 and $3.656.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-18-2002 (S&P starts at 1166.16)

Last week the U.S. stock markets moved up and down in a sideways pattern as forecast in the earlier Plazaview. The S&P closed the week (+1.85 points) higher at 1166.16. The Dow Ind. 30 performed similarly but gained more, closing up (+35. points) for the week, at 10607.2. Last week's action was the pause which often follows a week of short position covering. The S&P 500 was nearly unchanged last week and compared with 1999's year-end, it finished still down by (-)20.63%. After a rally from the late September lows, ended in November / December, the U.S.A.'s stock market indices have trended sideways and mostly downward for seventeen weeks.

This week the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend has recently changed to neutral. The stock market begins this week's trading with the potential to rally further except for the impediment of still unfinished trading at lower levels. While there is a potential for higher levels, the advance which began at the end of last September, is unsustainable and the market will back down to retrace the recent gains. The nearest, lower target area is (S & P 500) 1089.84 and this will be revisited; 965.8 is a deeper potential risk to the current advance.

Last week, the (June) T-bond moved up and down; with a risk of lower prices as forecast in the prior week's Plazaview, it ended lower. The Bond moved in a range from 99.18/32 to 97.6/32 and closed down, at 98.18/32. This week, the Bond is ready to move with an upward bias. The anticipated drop in the stock market will bring buyers back to the Bond market. Uncertain investors remain cautious, alternating between stock market sectors and the Bond market areas, in search of stock market direction with paralleling safety.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond moved slightly up (+0.00058) last week. As forecast in Plazaview, the yield rate was limited in range and closed higher, at 5.721% last week. This week, the rate is likely to decrease. The recent increase is an initial advance and the rate will sink back down again as the stock market retraces its recent gains.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index was moved slightly lower, to close down (-0.69) at 117.19. The Dollar has been in a top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been retesting the top of its range. This week begins with the Dollar near its recent top level. It has some limited potential to move back up, in the direction of 120.22. But, the Dollar is overdue to fall into a downward correction trend. Only fundamental weakness in alternative currencies holds the Dollar aloft. However, crude oil is likely to retreat soon and this will tend to push down the Dollar. The long term trend is rising but a short term reversal is overdue. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index continued moving higher, last week. The CRB finished (+2.62) last week at 203.49, largely due to energy price increases. The CRB peaked in October of one year ago and then it trended lower. The index recently tested down to the lows of two years ago (1999). This indicator market is now in an initial break out of a fourteen-month-old down trend. This week, the market is likely to return to lower levels, in the direction of CRB 192.

Crude oil's (NY-June) market price moved higher, last week. It remained in a limited range ($24.51 to $25.08) and hit the ($25.03) target as forecast in the prior issue of Plazaview. The (June) CO closed (+$0.70) higher, at $24.92. This week, CO is highly vulnerable to selling. The immediate lower (June) targets are at $24.22 and $22.71.

The NY (June) gasoline market price moved up, last week, into a range of ($.6312 to $.7723) and hit the ($.7781) target as forecast in Plazaview. The (June) HU closed (+$.0304) higher, at $.8026. This week, HU begins with high a vulnerability to sellers. A further advance will be short lived. Sellers will soon push down this rising market. HU (June) has a nearby, lower target at $.7723. Eventually, failure of the current rally will result in a retracement to $.6501 and $.6312, with potential to hit the $.60 area.

The NY (June) heating oil market price moved up, last week, into a range of ($.639 to $.653). It hit the Plazaview forecast target of $.6312. The (June) HO closed (+$.0227) higher, at $.6473. This week, a higher target is nearby, at $.6644 but the current advance will soon become attractive to sellers. After an unsustainable attempt to move higher, HO will be moved back down to (June HO) targets of $.6246 and $.62, with a now distant potential to hit $.52.

The NY (June) natural gas market extended the recent advance, last week, as the price moved up, into a range of $2.892 to $3.17. The June - NG closed (+$.236) higher, last week, at $2.908. This week, NG has already had a good move up and a nearby upper target remains at $3.287 (June NG) and that may be the current rally's upper limit. But, this market is now more vulnerable to sellers. Sellers may next take the price back down to targets of $2.479 and $2.308. There is potential for an additional upper target at $3.656 but this is not a sustainable level.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-25-2002 (S&P starts at 1148.70)

Last week the U.S. stock markets attempted an advance at the start of the week but remained mostly on the sell side for most of the week. The S&P closed lower for the week, at 1148.70. The Dow Ind. 30 performed similarly, closing down for the week, at 10427.67. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)21.82%. After a rally from the late September lows, ended in November / December, the U.S.A.'s stock market indices have trended sideways and mostly downward for eighteen weeks.

This week the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend has recently changed to neutral. The stock market begins this week's trading with a potential to rally except for the impediment of still unfinished trading at lower levels. While there is potential for higher levels, the advance which began at the end of last September, is unsustainable and the market will back down to retrace some, if not all, of those gains. The nearest, lower target area is (S & P 500) 1089.84 and this will be revisited; 965.8 is a deeper potential risk to the current advance.

Last week, the (June) T-bond remained within the prior week's range. It closed lower for the week but did establish a comparatively higher low for the week. The (June) Bond moved in a range from 99.16/32 to 97.16/32 and closed down, at 98.4/32. This week, the Bond is ready to bounce higher on an initial rally from an oversold condition. The potential / eventual drop of the stock market will bring buyers back to the Bond market. Uncertain investors remain cautious, alternating between stock market sectors and the Bond market areas, in search of stock market direction with paralleling safety. The Bond is ready to rally but this will be only an initial rise.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond continued to move up (+0.00084) last week. The yield rate was limited in range but closed higher, at 5.805% last week. This week, the rate is still likely to decrease as the Bond is due to rally. The recent increases are the initial advance, after changing trend direction. The rate will sink back down again as the stock market retraces its recent gains.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index was moved slightly higher, to close up (+0.81) at 118.00. The Dollar has been in a long top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been trading in the area of its top range. This week begins with the Dollar near its recent top level. It has some limited potential to move back up, in the direction of 120.22. But, the Dollar is overdue to fall into a downward correction trend. Only fundamental weakness in alternative currencies holds the Dollar aloft. However, crude oil is likely to retreat soon and this will tend to push down the Dollar. The long term trend is rising but a short term reversal is overdue. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved only slightly higher, last week. The CRB finished (+.07) last week at 203.56, largely due to energy price increases. The CRB peaked in October of one year ago and then it trended lower. The index recently tested down to the lows of two years ago (1999). This indicator market is now in an initial break out of a fourteen-month-old down trend. This week, the market is due for a return to lower levels, in the direction of CRB 192.

Crude oil's (NY-June) market price held its recent gains and moved slightly higher, last week. It remained in a limited range ($24.83 to $25.88) for the week and the (June) CO closed (+$0.57) higher, at $25.49. This week, CO is highly vulnerable to selling. The immediate lower (June) targets are at $24.22 and $22.71.

The NY (June) gasoline market price rallied and failed to hold the advance last week, trading in a range of ($.835 to $.7735). The (June) HU closed (-$.0009) lower, at $.8017. This week, HU begins with high a vulnerability to sellers. A further advance will be short lived. Sellers will soon push down this rising market. HU (June) has a nearby, lower target at $.7723. Eventually, failure of the current rally will result in a retracement to $.6501 and $.6312, with potential to hit the $.60 area.

The NY (June) heating oil market price moved up, last week, into a range of ($.6435 to $.67). It hit the Plazaview forecast target of $.6644. The (June) HO closed (+$.0084) higher, at $.6557. This week, the recent advance will soon become attractive to sellers. After an unsustainable attempt to move higher, HO will be moved back down to (June HO) targets of $.6246 and $.62, with a now distant potential to hit $.52.

The NY (June) natural gas market extended the recent advance, last week, as the price moved up, into a range of $3.14 to $3.6, hitting the Plazaview-forecast target of $3.287. The June - NG closed (+$.478) higher, last week, at $3.386. This week, NG has already had a good move up but this market is now more vulnerable to sellers. Sellers may next take the price back down to targets of $2.479 and $2.308. There is potential for an additional upper target at $3.656 but this is not a sustainable level.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>